Good luck.
EOG's Best Bet thread for Monday, September 16
- Thread starter John Kelly
- Start date
Neveragain
EOG Dedicated
903 WSH -136 (LP)
Compiling the numbers for a scoreboard update to be published later tonight.
Cleveland/Jets Under 45 (Bookmaker.eu)
I believe the final score in the Browns' game vs Tenn was a bit misleading. In the first half they allowed under 5 ypp and Mariota was only 8 of 18. But the 20 penalties and heightened expectation got to the Browns, and they went into the fetal position in the 4th quarter, allowing a pick 6 and a defensive breakdown was caused a 75 yard TD. Much more focused effort and I would expect the Jets to go conservative with Semien, who can manage the game.
I believe the final score in the Browns' game vs Tenn was a bit misleading. In the first half they allowed under 5 ypp and Mariota was only 8 of 18. But the 20 penalties and heightened expectation got to the Browns, and they went into the fetal position in the 4th quarter, allowing a pick 6 and a defensive breakdown was caused a 75 yard TD. Much more focused effort and I would expect the Jets to go conservative with Semien, who can manage the game.
jimmythegreek
The opening odds start here
914 Minnesota -1.5 -130 (Berrios) S&O
KevinStott11
EOG Veteran
Thursday, September 19, 2019—303 Houston +3½ -105 (Heritage)
8 pm EDT/5 pm PDT (ESPN, WatchESPN)—Obsessing on the number (Point Spread) or the movement or what others think seems goofy for the sophisticated gambler, yet the human Ego sets traps that make it impossible for some to look beyond the bigger picture of a simple number and adjust their specific handicap to the (hopeful) various levels of Art and Science. After that, getting the amount (level) seems like the biggest thing to me. Getting the best of it is fine and having a zillion outs is fine—especially if you are a true Wiseguy and/or Professional Bettor—but for the little guy and casual bettor to obsess about numbers and movement and betting groups seems like a grand waste of Time and a way to introduce Stress into your Life from others' actions and/or ideas. Were you created to simply be a lemming? A follower? Is it in your nature to react to something only after hearing what someone else thinks about it?
Categorizing bettors as Sharps and Squares is goofy also. A smart bettor makes the best pick from the board, tries to get what he/she thinks is the best number (with what he/she has to work with) and is disciplined in the bigger betting picture. People obsessing with the 18 or 19 the Patriots were asked to lay on Sunday need to learn to divide NFL history and their own perceptions from the potential reality of what may happen between two completely different teams than past Stats and Trends created. Kane was a wise man to think NE would roll. The Patriots were playing a team without a TD and who had already given up after Week 1. How many points do you apply to a handicap for a team who gives Zero Fucks after Week 1? Seriously. But the 43-0 scoreline speaks more of a Patriots team twice as good as anyone else in the now imbalanced NFL.
The betting board Monday is skimpy MLB and the Jets-Browns are on MNF, so, I say we get a start on NCAAF Week 3. And the first game on the board seems like a bad line to me—Houston at Tulane (-3½)—something I say maybe 17 times a year over all Sports. The last time I saw a bad line was that MLS Vancouver-FC Cincinnati match I shouted about. People that see bad lines everyday are egomaniacs in my mind. Lines move with market money and end up where they are because of the betting into that specific market. So, in theory, any “Bad Number” should be leveled out by the betting public, especially in NCAAF and NFL with 7 days involved from Open to Close.
Anyway, I am unsure why Tulane is favored. My gut (Art) says Houston and D’Eriq King will run all over the Green Wave. Then I remember Tulane played Auburn tough. Time to get in The Lab and see why the Science may have this number where it is. When perceived Squares and chalk-addicts type about an Underdog, people with fake names should probably listen. But the level of this play would never eclipse the $22/20 (Orange) mark, so if you have something important to do and don’t like reading, please scurry along.
Who cares about the Logic behind a $20 bet, right? We are Bigwigs and we pretend to bet big amounts. Deciding to bet on a given game and getting the amount(s) right is way more important than where you bet. You are your own God in Sports Gambling. You control it all if you stop and think. I will not bet today and love every second of it. Perspective matters. And I don't want to have to care about a fucking Browns-Jets game sister. The chalk is 9-0 ATS L9 meetings. Enjoy. At what exact point in the Space-Time Continuum did Time actually start becoming Money? Can we blame the Anunnaki? Or Dr. Phil?
The properly spaced people over at Winsipedia tell me that Houston is 17-6 lifetime vs Tulane, wracking up a 10-game Win Streak from 2003 to 2012. When these two played last year at Houston (2-11 ATS L13 on FieldTurf), the Cougars rolled to a 48-17 victory (HOU -7) while when they met in NO in 2018, Tulane won 20-17 as 8-point Dogs. Perhaps the Under is worth a look with so much Rushing and all 5 games these two have played going Under in 2019?
The Cougars (1-2 SU) are a decent team, with its 2 Losses vs ranked Oklahoma and Washington State, so this is a team looking to avoid a 1-3 start. Tulane (2-1) scored on 5 of its first 6 Possessions in a 58-6 rout of FCS Missouri State in New Orleans. QB Keon Howard and Tulane also don’t throw the ball much, so the better Defense should win this game. The Green Wave (10-4 ATS L14 Home) are #25 in Total Defense, allowing 4.29 ypp and 276 ypg, but when you’ve played Missouri State and Florida International in 2 of your 3 games, your numbers will be deceiving. Houston allows 7.47 ypc and 497.7 ypg—the 9th worst (#122) mark in FBS. So, maybe the number isn’t off and it’s hard to imagine Tulane tackling worse that Washington State did vs the Cougars last Friday night.
Houston (11-3-1 ATS L15 as Underdog) is 7-3 SU at Tulane at Benson Field at Yulman Stadium (FieldTurf) and 7-1 ATS L8 meetings there and 12-3 ATS the L15 meetings overall, so I shall stick with my guns and back Houston in this American Athletic West game on Thursday night, knowing that they are fearing a 1-3 start. King and RB Kyle Porter are averaging over 5.0 ypc and WRs Keith Corbin and Marquez Henderson are solid targets although King slings the ball and has the touch of an 8th grader. One team is coming off a game with a ranked team that scores like it’s Nerf Football (Wash State) while the other played Missouri State, the 55th ranked team in FCS.
Tulane has W4 straight at Home and will look to play lockdown Defense vs Houston, but I think the Cougars find a way to win and are possibly worth a look on the Money Line (+151, BookMaker). I may do a 3-team NCAA Underdog parlay with Houston +150, Oklahoma State (+172) and some other team.
Houston 31 Tulane 24
8 pm EDT/5 pm PDT (ESPN, WatchESPN)—Obsessing on the number (Point Spread) or the movement or what others think seems goofy for the sophisticated gambler, yet the human Ego sets traps that make it impossible for some to look beyond the bigger picture of a simple number and adjust their specific handicap to the (hopeful) various levels of Art and Science. After that, getting the amount (level) seems like the biggest thing to me. Getting the best of it is fine and having a zillion outs is fine—especially if you are a true Wiseguy and/or Professional Bettor—but for the little guy and casual bettor to obsess about numbers and movement and betting groups seems like a grand waste of Time and a way to introduce Stress into your Life from others' actions and/or ideas. Were you created to simply be a lemming? A follower? Is it in your nature to react to something only after hearing what someone else thinks about it?
Categorizing bettors as Sharps and Squares is goofy also. A smart bettor makes the best pick from the board, tries to get what he/she thinks is the best number (with what he/she has to work with) and is disciplined in the bigger betting picture. People obsessing with the 18 or 19 the Patriots were asked to lay on Sunday need to learn to divide NFL history and their own perceptions from the potential reality of what may happen between two completely different teams than past Stats and Trends created. Kane was a wise man to think NE would roll. The Patriots were playing a team without a TD and who had already given up after Week 1. How many points do you apply to a handicap for a team who gives Zero Fucks after Week 1? Seriously. But the 43-0 scoreline speaks more of a Patriots team twice as good as anyone else in the now imbalanced NFL.
The betting board Monday is skimpy MLB and the Jets-Browns are on MNF, so, I say we get a start on NCAAF Week 3. And the first game on the board seems like a bad line to me—Houston at Tulane (-3½)—something I say maybe 17 times a year over all Sports. The last time I saw a bad line was that MLS Vancouver-FC Cincinnati match I shouted about. People that see bad lines everyday are egomaniacs in my mind. Lines move with market money and end up where they are because of the betting into that specific market. So, in theory, any “Bad Number” should be leveled out by the betting public, especially in NCAAF and NFL with 7 days involved from Open to Close.
Anyway, I am unsure why Tulane is favored. My gut (Art) says Houston and D’Eriq King will run all over the Green Wave. Then I remember Tulane played Auburn tough. Time to get in The Lab and see why the Science may have this number where it is. When perceived Squares and chalk-addicts type about an Underdog, people with fake names should probably listen. But the level of this play would never eclipse the $22/20 (Orange) mark, so if you have something important to do and don’t like reading, please scurry along.
The properly spaced people over at Winsipedia tell me that Houston is 17-6 lifetime vs Tulane, wracking up a 10-game Win Streak from 2003 to 2012. When these two played last year at Houston (2-11 ATS L13 on FieldTurf), the Cougars rolled to a 48-17 victory (HOU -7) while when they met in NO in 2018, Tulane won 20-17 as 8-point Dogs. Perhaps the Under is worth a look with so much Rushing and all 5 games these two have played going Under in 2019?
The Cougars (1-2 SU) are a decent team, with its 2 Losses vs ranked Oklahoma and Washington State, so this is a team looking to avoid a 1-3 start. Tulane (2-1) scored on 5 of its first 6 Possessions in a 58-6 rout of FCS Missouri State in New Orleans. QB Keon Howard and Tulane also don’t throw the ball much, so the better Defense should win this game. The Green Wave (10-4 ATS L14 Home) are #25 in Total Defense, allowing 4.29 ypp and 276 ypg, but when you’ve played Missouri State and Florida International in 2 of your 3 games, your numbers will be deceiving. Houston allows 7.47 ypc and 497.7 ypg—the 9th worst (#122) mark in FBS. So, maybe the number isn’t off and it’s hard to imagine Tulane tackling worse that Washington State did vs the Cougars last Friday night.
Houston (11-3-1 ATS L15 as Underdog) is 7-3 SU at Tulane at Benson Field at Yulman Stadium (FieldTurf) and 7-1 ATS L8 meetings there and 12-3 ATS the L15 meetings overall, so I shall stick with my guns and back Houston in this American Athletic West game on Thursday night, knowing that they are fearing a 1-3 start. King and RB Kyle Porter are averaging over 5.0 ypc and WRs Keith Corbin and Marquez Henderson are solid targets although King slings the ball and has the touch of an 8th grader. One team is coming off a game with a ranked team that scores like it’s Nerf Football (Wash State) while the other played Missouri State, the 55th ranked team in FCS.
Tulane has W4 straight at Home and will look to play lockdown Defense vs Houston, but I think the Cougars find a way to win and are possibly worth a look on the Money Line (+151, BookMaker). I may do a 3-team NCAA Underdog parlay with Houston +150, Oklahoma State (+172) and some other team.
Houston 31 Tulane 24
Last edited:
smartz
2
I jumped all over Tulane -3 when it opened. This bodes well for youThursday, September 19, 2019—303 Houston +3½ -105 (Heritage)
8 pm EDT/5 pm PDT (ESPN, WatchESPN)—Obsessing on the number (Point Spread) or the movement or what others think seems goofy for the sophisticated gambler, yet the human Ego sets traps that make it impossible for some to look beyond the bigger picture of a simple number and adjust their specific handicap to the (hopeful) various levels of Art and Science. After that, getting the amount (level) seems like the biggest thing to me. Getting the best of it is fine and having a zillion outs is fine—especially if you are a true Wiseguy and/or Professional Bettor—but for the little guy and casual bettor to obsess about numbers and movement and betting groups seems like a grand waste of Time and a way to introduce Stress into your Life from others' actions and/or ideas. Were you created to simply be a lemming? A follower? Is it in your nature to react to something only after hearing what someone else thinks about it?
Categorizing bettors as Sharps and Squares is goofy also. A smart bettor makes the best pick from the board, tries to get what he/she thinks is the best number (with what he/she has to work with) and is disciplined in the bigger betting picture. People obsessing with the 18 or 19 the Patriots were asked to lay on Sunday need to learn to divide NFL history and their own perceptions from the potential reality of what may happen between two completely different teams than past Stats and Trends created. Kane was a wise man to think NE would roll. The Patriots were playing a team without a TD and who had already given up after Week 1. How many points do you apply to a handicap for a team who gives Zero Fucks after Week 1? Seriously. But the 43-0 scoreline speaks more of a Patriots team twice as good as anyone else in the now imbalanced NFL.
The betting board Monday is skimpy MLB and the Jets-Browns are on MNF, so, I say we get a start on NCAAF Week 3. And the first game on the board seems like a bad line to me—Houston at Tulane (-3½)—something I say maybe 17 times a year over all Sports. The last time I saw a bad line was that MLS Vancouver-FC Cincinnati match I shouted about. People that see bad lines everyday are egomaniacs in my mind. Lines move with market money and end up where they are because of the betting into that specific market. So, in theory, any “Bad Number” should be leveled out by the betting public, especially in NCAAF and NFL with 7 days involved from Open to Close.
Anyway, I am unsure why Tulane is favored. My gut (Art) says Houston and D’Eriq King will run all over the Green Wave. Then I remember Tulane played Auburn tough. Time to get in The Lab and see why the Science may have this number where it is. When perceived Squares and chalk-addicts type about an Underdog, people with fake names should probably listen. But the level of this play would never eclipse the $22/20 (Orange) mark, so if you have something important to do and don’t like reading, please scurry along.
Who cares about the Logic behind a $20 bet, right? We are Bigwigs and we pretend to bet big amounts. Deciding to bet on a given game and getting the amount(s) right is way more important than where you bet. You are your own God in Sports Gambling. You control it all if you stop and think. I will not bet today and love every second of it. Perspective matters. And I don't want to have to care about a fucking Browns-Jets game sister. The chalk is 9-0 ATS L9 meetings. Enjoy. At what exact point in the Space-Time Continuum did Time actually start becoming Money? Can we blame the Anunnaki? Or Dr. Phil?
The properly spaced people over at Winsipedia tell me that Houston is 17-6 lifetime vs Tulane, wracking up a 10-game Win Streak from 2003 to 2012. When these two played last year at Houston (2-11 ATS L13 on FieldTurf), the Cougars rolled to a 48-17 victory (HOU -7) while when they met in NO in 2018, Tulane won 20-17 as 8-point Dogs. Perhaps the Under is worth a look with so much Rushing and all 5 games these two have played going Under in 2019?
The Cougars (1-2 SU) are a decent team, with its 2 Losses vs ranked Oklahoma and Washington State, so this is a team looking to avoid a 1-3 start. Tulane (2-1) scored on 5 of its first 6 Possessions in a 58-6 rout of FCS Missouri State in New Orleans. QB Keon Howard and Tulane also don’t throw the ball much, so the better Defense should win this game. The Green Wave (10-4 ATS L14 Home) are #25 in Total Defense, allowing 4.29 ypp and 276 ypg, but when you’ve played Missouri State and Florida International in 2 of your 3 games, your numbers will be deceiving. Houston allows 7.47 ypc and 497.7 ypg—the 9th worst (#122) mark in FBS. So, maybe the number isn’t off and it’s hard to imagine Tulane tackling worse that Washington State did vs the Cougars last Friday night.
Houston (11-3-1 ATS L15 as Underdog) is 7-3 SU at Tulane at Benson Field at Yulman Stadium (FieldTurf) and 7-1 ATS L8 meetings there and 12-3 ATS the L15 meetings overall, so I shall stick with my guns and back Houston in this American Athletic West game on Thursday night, knowing that they are fearing a 1-3 start. King and RB Kyle Porter are averaging over 5.0 ypc and WRs Keith Corbin and Marquez Henderson are solid targets although King slings the ball and has the touch of an 8th grader. One team is coming off a game with a ranked team that scores like it’s Nerf Football (Wash State) while the other played Missouri State, the 55th ranked team in FCS.
Tulane has W4 straight at Home and will look to play lockdown Defense vs Houston, but I think the Cougars find a way to win and are possibly worth a look on the Money Line (+151, BookMaker). I may do a 3-team NCAA Underdog parlay with Houston +150, Oklahoma State (+172) and some other team.
Houston 31 Tulane 24
winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
Pinny
Sunday Sept 22
Chelsea/Liverpool OV3 -104
Ov3 started out "plus money" and is now slightly "minus money"
I GAVE EVERYONE HERE an easy PUSH - then Winner - Saturday with Man City/Norwich City OV4 and it was 3-2. THIS ONE WILL BE JUST AS EASY! We might get 3 goals in 1h. I can't keep giving you all early Xmas Gifts and not have you take advantage of it. Play this NOW because by kickoff 3 will be gone and you will be looking at 3.25 or 3.5.
PLAY IT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!
Sunday Sept 22
Chelsea/Liverpool OV3 -104
Ov3 started out "plus money" and is now slightly "minus money"
I GAVE EVERYONE HERE an easy PUSH - then Winner - Saturday with Man City/Norwich City OV4 and it was 3-2. THIS ONE WILL BE JUST AS EASY! We might get 3 goals in 1h. I can't keep giving you all early Xmas Gifts and not have you take advantage of it. Play this NOW because by kickoff 3 will be gone and you will be looking at 3.25 or 3.5.
PLAY IT NOW!!!!!!!!!!!
puckhandler
EOG Dedicated
live wager
Baltimore Orioles +1075 ml
Baltimore trails 5-1 end 6th inning
Baltimore Orioles +1075 ml
Baltimore trails 5-1 end 6th inning
hcskip
EOG Addicted
Got it on Heritage. Not offered yet in 5Dimes.
Screw Andrews
EOG Dedicated
Jets +6.5 Ev.....WA
winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
5D won't do it until around Wednesday or Thursday. Only downside to them