EOG's Best Bet thread for Saturday, September 14

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#6
Well - it is finally time to see how smart I am. Or am not. I have spent the better part of 2 weeks posting plays for this game. The time of reckoning is now here. I will either look really smart or really stupid. I hope the former but won't know until it all plays out. I am going to see The Niece play her Club Soccer game at 9:30A and will come home, fire up the DVR and hope for the best (JK - when I get done watching the game I will post results for all of these so you don't have to do so - I will simply copy the picks so nothing is hidden and all is upfront for all to see):

Adding 1 more play:

Pinny

Man City to win by the EXACT score of 5-1: +1650

For some reason the score that keeps flashing in my mind about this game is 5-1. I have been off Chemo for almost 2 months so that isn't affecting my thoughts. I think the final of this game is either: 4-1/4-2/5-1. Having Ov5.5 I hope it is either of the latter 2 and hopefully the last one.

All Plays I have on Saturday in the PL (11 with an unheard of 10 on 1 game and almost all related to OVER of some sort)...........and just for Shiggles - the current price for all is in ( ) next to it and in most cases I got the best number and now by a rather significant margin...and in NO cases did I get the worst number:
***************************************
7A: Leicester City +0.5 +112 (-119)

THEN

9:30A on NBC......Man City/Norwich City
*****************************************
Man City 1st Goal in Mins 1-10: +320 (+290)
1h: BTTS +290 (Same)
1h: Ov2 +150 (+138)
1h: Ov2.5 +260 (+230)
Man City to win & BTTS: +115 (Same)
Ov4: +102 (-117)
Ov4.5: +158 (+131)
Ov5.5 +352 (+290)
Will there be a Red Card in the Match: YES +450 (Same)
Man City wins the game 5-1: +1650 (Same)


Winkyduck 556-750-39 +11.02 UNITS (Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)
 

KevinStott11

EOG Senior Member
#13
I so love what Winky Duck has done with this game. Like a scientist. Break things down to specifics and then try to nail the thought. I had the Pats winning the SB by 11 because of #11, but the bastards in Costa Rica had me writing about....well, F1 and Golf before now nothing. I agree with him and shall live vicariously through his pick(s). I need to write them all down now. One of the Suits dudes on NBCSN predicted 2-0, but I agree with Duckman. The Pace in MC games are always fast and hard for NC to dictate that Pace with KDB and Sterling and others out there. MC always score three themselves, and the Pukki dude always scores. Go get 'em man. Need a Goal in first 11" to set pace. I hope Sterling is in their Starting XI as I saw him playing for Mother England in international duty this week. I know you've bee waiting for this. Gabriel Jesus may help. I'm thinking 4-1 or 5-1 also. Big love brother.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#20
Well - it is finally time to see how smart I am. Or am not. I have spent the better part of 2 weeks posting plays for this game. The time of reckoning is now here. I will either look really smart or really stupid. I hope the former but won't know until it all plays out. I am going to see The Niece play her Club Soccer game at 9:30A and will come home, fire up the DVR and hope for the best (JK - when I get done watching the game I will post results for all of these so you don't have to do so - I will simply copy the picks so nothing is hidden and all is upfront for all to see):

Adding 1 more play:

Pinny

Man City to win by the EXACT score of 5-1: +1650

For some reason the score that keeps flashing in my mind about this game is 5-1. I have been off Chemo for almost 2 months so that isn't affecting my thoughts. I think the final of this game is either: 4-1/4-2/5-1. Having Ov5.5 I hope it is either of the latter 2 and hopefully the last one.

All Plays I have on Saturday in the PL (11 with an unheard of 10 on 1 game and almost all related to OVER of some sort)...........and just for Shiggles - the current price for all is in ( ) next to it and in most cases I got the best number and now by a rather significant margin...and in NO cases did I get the worst number:
***************************************
7A: Leicester City +0.5 +112 (-119)

THEN

9:30A on NBC......Man City/Norwich City
*****************************************
Man City 1st Goal in Mins 1-10: +320 (+290)
1h: BTTS +290 (Same)
1h: Ov2 +150 (+138)
1h: Ov2.5 +260 (+230)
Man City to win & BTTS: +115 (Same)
Ov4: +102 (-117)
Ov4.5: +158 (+131)
Ov5.5 +352 (+290)
Will there be a Red Card in the Match: YES +450 (Same)
Man City wins the game 5-1: +1650 (Same)


Winkyduck 556-750-39 +11.02 UNITS (Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)
Results:

7A: Leicester City +0.5 +112 (-119)............................L -100
Man City 1st Goal in Mins 1-10: +320 (+290)........L -100
1h: BTTS +290 (Same)......................................................W +290
1h: Ov2 +150 (+138)........................................................W +150
1h: Ov2.5 +260 (+230)....................................................W +260
Man City to win & BTTS: +115 (Same)......................L -100
Ov4: +102 (-117)...............................................................W +102
Ov4.5: +158 (+131)..........................................................W +158
Ov5.5 +352 (+290)............................................................L -100
Will there be a Red Card in the Match: YES +450 (Same)............L -100
Man City wins the game 5-1: +1650 (Same)......................................L -100

Add it all up

6L -600
5W +960

6-5 +360............I'll gladly take it. City got a goal in the last seconds of made a huge difference

I see Norwich was around +2400 to win. WOW

Updated
Winkyduck 562-755-39 +14.62 UNITS (Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)[/
 

KevinStott11

EOG Senior Member
#25
Sunday, September 15, 2019—259 Patriots -18½ -106 (BookMaker)

1 pm EDT/10 am PDT (CBS)—The hills are alive with the sound of screaming. With swears we have cussed for a hundred years. The Airwave fills my heart with the sound of babbling. Do you have to wear a suit to talk about a game? My sweet Lord, is watching a game on the Boob Tube or any device a hard thing these crazy days. Perhaps I am getting old and bitter, but the Noise level is deafening. As are the Sight (graphics) and Sound elements of a Football game. I feel like I am in a fucking Arcade, being talked to by two Gym Teachers in fine suits with black sticks in their hands, so I play Rain and Chakrah healing stuff and Frequencies (639 Hz) in a Sound Salad to douche the stupid Noise buildup we all are prey to in The Digital Age.

Right now (Saturday), I am watching Army-UTSA, Oklahoma State-Tulsa and monitoring Navy-EC while listening to Rain from the South Korean Palace Deoksugung pond along with Marimba Meditation Music with two Fans as background-White Noise. Why? I don’t like the commercial interruptions of (American) Football nor people talking to me. My Cat and the Sparrows can talk to me as they make the most sense lately and haven’t been fried by Smartphones. I would rather write about this than any NFL game, or make a case why laying 19, although historically a nightmare, is my Pick here in the Patriots at Dolphins game. It is the same reason for all of my other Picks, here, there and everywhere: The (near-to, predicted) Final Score I provide.


New England should have 6 TDs while Miami maybe 1 or 2? (43-14) Is that primitive enough? Hearing that some Miami players wanted to be traded after Week 1’s humbling by the Blackbirds reveals much. And the Pats DBs are at another level it seems this season and the team’s D never gets enough credit. Teams going into games without allowing a TD want to keep that up, and although Logic dictates that Miami will get a 7 or two, it also dictates that Brady will connect with Edelman, and New Problem Chile Brown, Burkhead, Gordon, White and Dorsett for over 30 points.

Historically, this will be one of the biggest NFL numbers since 2013 (-26½), and Road Dogs of 18½ or more are 0-3 ATS, but this handicap is all Art and no Science and armed with the reality NE has two new players in Brown and Dorsett who want to prove they’re perfect Patriots, and another very athletic guy in Josh Gordon trying to do a career makeover in Foxboro. To me, and with no disrespect to Jerry Rice, John Taylor, John Stalworth, Lance Alworth or Fred Biletnikoff, NE has two of the best four WRs in NFL history on its Roster right now in Edelman and Brown (Otis Taylor, Larry Fitzgerald).
So Brady has his Toys and the Defense is great and the Fish have scored 10 points and allowed 59 and the waiter has peed in our punch bowl. Miami is a surprising 17-10 vs the Pats the L17 in Miami or Miami Gardens, and the hosts have to be focused for their perceived AFC East rivals—they’re not, Pink Floyd are not rivals with REO Speedwagon—but hearing players want to bail on their team after Week 1 is so 2019 and so weak for millionaires playing a motherfucking game for a living while we eat leftovers and yell at the HDTV.

Ask yourself, if there are least 28 points scored, who will score the points? If you say 14-14 is a possibility, please throw the Smartphone out the car window. You have been irradiated too long, sonny boy. Even at 35-14, it’s a cover right now (Saturday), and, if you or I lose (backing the monster chalks) on a 35-17 final, then we certainly deserve it. I locked in (NE) -19 ($22 USD) at -19 early on Monday with Fear and Loathing in my heart. I heard on my TV later that afternoon that one Sin City sportsbook had $3 on Miami at the time. That is not much.

Patriots 43 Dolphins 14

 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#29
JK - since you did not post a Sunday thread I will post this for Sunday - since I will not be awake until after this game was started:

Arsenal +104


Winkyduck 562-755-39 +14.62 UNITS (Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#30
JK - since you did not post a Sunday thread I will post this for Sunday - since I will not be awake until after this game was started:

Arsenal +104


Winkyduck 562-755-39 +14.62 UNITS (Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)
Line from Pinny
 
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