EOG's Best Bet thread for Sunday, August 18

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Pinny

Sunday at 6A on NBCSN

Sunday BB: Crystal Palace PICK +107
Saturday BB (Game follows Palace - starting at 8:30A............and THIS ONE should be a barn burner!): Leicester +0.25 +187


This game figures to be a cure for insomnia as opposed to the 2 games played after it. We MIGHT see a goal scored here. The total is 2. Hate to bet Under 2 but couldn't bet OVER! Palace somehow finds a way to put one home between the 70-80th minute and win an ugly 1-0 game.

Posting this now cuz NO WAY I will be up before the game starts. Or ends

Winkyduck 548-741-38 +5.91 UNITS (Leicester +0.25 +187; Mariners U70.5 RSW +125; D-backs U75.5 RSW EV; Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)
 

KevinStott11

EOG Veteran
200046 Chelsea FC -140 (Circa Sports)

11:30 am EDT/8:30 pm PDT (NBCSN, NBCSports.com, Telemundo, Telemundo Deportes En Vivo, NBC Sports Live Extra App, SiriusXM FC)—The EPL continues Matchweek 2 in West London and Stamford Bridge (Grass) where Chelsea FC will host Leicester FC in the Blues Home opener, and Home debut for new manager Frank Lampard as well as USMNT star Christian Pulisic. Us (us, us, us, us) and Them (them, them, them, them), and after all we’re only ordinary men. The Brown Acid that is circulating around us is not specifically too good. Specifically.

Oddsmakers put out an Opening line of -123 and Bookmakers here in scalding hot Las Vegas currently (Friday, 11:38 am PDT) have CFC in a wide -135 to -180 range in the 3-way betting market according to VegasInsider, so shop around no matter what you take if betting here (LC +240 to 275, Draw +250 to +270).

Series Trends show Chelsea to be 26-5-10 (W-D-L) at Home to the Foxes, outscoring them 83-36 in the process but Pedro and the Blues are winless in the L3 meetings with Leicester City (LEI 0-0 CFC, CFC 0-1 LC, CFC 0-0 LEI) and CFC hasn’t scored a Goal against the Foxes in EPL play since a N'Golo Kanté tally at the 50-minute mark back in Matchweek 4 of the 2017/18 season (LEI 1-2 CFC), so, that’s well over 320 minutes with Chelsea not scoring on LC. And as you can see (read), the L3 meetings have gone Under (2½) with Jamie Vardy and the Foxes only able to muster 1 Goal. Bor-ing.

The handicapping angles here are Psychological and Site-Situational. The Psychological angle is Chelsea not wanting to start 0-0-2 and to get a Goal with the Site-Situational reality being that the match is at Stamford Bridge (Homepitch weighs heavy in Soccer with only 1 meeting per season) and the Home opener. And with former Blues legend Lampard walking the sidelines with dress shoes and Captain America Pulisic (Hershey, PA) ready to get a Goal that isn’t ruled Offside by a Referee sticking with her first (scared) instinct, the environment will be perfect for Chelsea.

How many Sides and Totals have been affected by subjective decisions of Referees on Offside calls? Y’all peckers chirp of perceived wrongdoing in a Raiders-Cardinals Preseason game in another hallway of eog, but at least that perceived wrongdoing (non-done) was planned ahead of time, eh? Watch your fucking action go up in a blip because of some Human Beans quick, kneejerk decision is exactly why the “Bridge Jumper Alert” thread was created, Bubba.

My L3 L’s here in this thread this week so far are tales in Referee woe and perceived corruption with none of my teams losing but my Picks losing all three times thanks to Offsides called, VAR robbery and not letting a player back on the pitch (Wout Weghorst) from spite. We’ll keep moving. They can’t keep building enough bridges for me to jump off with 3 fucking Bad Beats in 6 Picks and Soccer like a week old. Betting Soccer is like being married to Porn Star—you know your wife is getting regular ramrod and it ain’t your ramrod, Paulie.

And betting Soccer means getting used to possibly being reamed at the last moment, sans lubricado, Suzie. (My spellcheck does not know “reamed.” He is wise.) Anyway, LC and GK Kasper Schmeichel are in a tough spot here with the Celery Heads mad and Lampard’s Roster is loaded despite his inexperience.

Having Ross Barkley, future star Mason Mount, the aforementioned Kanté—who single handedly gave Liverpool no space in the MF in the UEFA Super Cup on Wednesday—Brazilians Willian and Kenedy and 2nd/3rd strikers Abraham-Batsman (Michy Batshuayi) mean that this upstart club should get 2 GPG, despite seeing Eden Hazard head to Real Madrid earlier this Summer.

So, The Pulisic Era officially begins in Londontown, and odds are the Young American gets a Goal (that counts) here, with Lampard now knowing Pulisic (+245 Anytime Goalscorer, PointsBet) needs to lead his MF and always be in his Starting XI. Common sense. The SuperBook sheets today (Friday) have Chelsea at 30/1 to win the EPL, up from an opening 20/1.

Expecting no Boredom is probably expecting too much with 1 goal in L3 matches. But CFC should give up a Goal a game and the Blues looked pretty good against Liverpool in Istanbul. Kanté could help the attack up the middle and with Pulisic, Pedro and maybe Giroud up top, can generate some scores here. And Vardy, Kelechi Iheanacho and Ayoze Pérez can tally for the Foxes.

Unsure if a 3-2 scorefest or a 2-1 borefest, so predicting a crooked score based on the Math Model in the back of my weary head, buried under the Fuzzbuster and the dense purple fog. David Letterman knows the importance of Coffee.

Chelsea 2½ Leicester City 1½

 
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JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
Good luck with that one. Unscientific poll, but your record with the Liberty lags behind your otherwise stellar WNBA numbers.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Pinny

Sunday at 6A on NBCSN

Sunday BB: Crystal Palace PICK +107
Saturday BB (Game follows Palace - starting at 8:30A............and THIS ONE should be a barn burner!): Leicester +0.25 +187


This game figures to be a cure for insomnia as opposed to the 2 games played after it. We MIGHT see a goal scored here. The total is 2. Hate to bet Under 2 but couldn't bet OVER! Palace somehow finds a way to put one home between the 70-80th minute and win an ugly 1-0 game.

Posting this now cuz NO WAY I will be up before the game starts. Or ends

Winkyduck 548-741-38 +5.91 UNITS (Leicester +0.25 +187; Mariners U70.5 RSW +125; D-backs U75.5 RSW EV; Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)

No real shock one of us got the Chelsea/Leicester game right. And one of us did not. Chelsea dominated first 25....Leicester the last 65. A fair result in a 1-1 Draw

Knew Palace game would end 1-0. Just got the wrong side with it


Winkyduck 549-742-39 +5.85 UNITS (Mariners U70.5 RSW +125; D-backs U75.5 RSW EV; Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)
 

choslamshe

EOG Master
Dallas (WNBA) +330 ML - SIA - Wings to win the game

Live wager at the half, Dallas trailing by two.

Conn scores 11 in the 2nd quarter and it's going to continue to be ugly for them the 2nd half...
 
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