EOG's Best Bet thread for Sunday, November 17

howid

EOG Dedicated
UEFA - EURO Qualifiers, Soccer
Kosovo Sun 11/17/19 09:00 AM
Spread (or run line) +1.5 for Match -132
 

KevinStott11

EOG Veteran
Sunday, November 17, 2019

32 Vegas Golden Knights -150 (BetOnline)

7 pm EST/4 pm PST—(ATRM, NHL, AT&T Sportsnet)—The hometown NHL team here in Las Vegas really needs a Win, and tonight the Calgary Flames (10-9-3) are at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, where the Golden Knights (9-9-3) have historically been perfect against their now somewhat Pacific Division rivals Calgary, who are 0-5 lifetime in Sin City heading in here. Covers.com is slating Cam Talbot (1-4-0, 2.69 GAA) in net for the Flames with usual starter Marc-Andre Fleury (.914 Save Pct) between the pipes for VGK who have L5 straight and are in dire need of a victory now sadly sitting in 7th place in the Pacific Division—2 points behind these Flames.

The Flames (L3 straight) have generally been very strong at Home and pretty weak on the Road (4-7-1) through recent years with the big Losing Streak at Anaheim (25 games, ended in 2017) an indication of this larger sample size.

Some Trends show Calgary (4-4-2 L10) to be 3-8 its L11 as a Road Underdog and 4-11 the L15 on the Road but an impressive 19-7 on the L26 Sundays. Slumping VGK (4-4-2 at Home, 2-5-3 LL10) is 6-3 lifetime vs the Flames and the Home team is 9-0 the L9 series meetings with VGK skating to a 6-2 win the last one on Oct 12 at T-Mobile as the hosts had 35 SOG as #1 G Fleury got the W.

This is truly a must-win spot for VGK and the Home crowd will know it and have some Nervousness about them. The Golden Knights (#3 on PK) rank #18 in the NHL in Goals Against (3.05), but hopefully can get that first score and get the crowd involved with Fleury raising expectations to stop the ugly skid which finds VGK now only ahead of the LA Kings in the division.

This one is half Art (Have to Win) and half Science (Site, 5-0 Lifetime vs CGY at Home, Home Team 9-0 L9 in series) and will have some of me pulling for a team I have come to adore not lose in a spot where it could truly spark desperation. VGK is not that bad and not that far ”out of it”—it is November—and needs to turn it around, starting tonight. Expect Talbot to be peppered. Calgary has never won in Clark County and we need to keep it that way for sometime.

Golden Knights 3 Flames 2

 

KevinStott11

EOG Veteran
>Posting on Sunday night for Monday with Pinnacle showing + at -30½...
Wednesday, November 20, 2019—108 Miami (Ohio) -30½ +102 (Pinnacle)

7:30 pm EST/4:30 pm PST—(ESPNU)—Akron scores like it hurts and Miami (Ohio) just pounded Bowling Green, 44-3 in midweek MACtion in Week 12, so the huge opening Point Spread here for this Wednesday night MAC East Division meeting in NCAAF Week 13 between Akron and Miami (Ohio) at Yager Field (FieldTurf) in Oxford is justified and the biggest number the RedHawks have been favored by in well over a decade and since they were nicknamed the Redskins.

The series Trends show Miami (5-1 MAC) is 1-3 ATS the L4 overall and 0-3 ATS he L3 here at Home although last year at Akron, Miami rolled to a 41-3 victory, easily covering ATS as 4-point Road underdogs. And this year’s meeting should end up being more like 2018 than the previous two dozen, including in 1995 when Miami won 65-0. The RedHawks are 18-9-1 SU lifetime vs the Zips (0-10 in MAC) and have W2 straight according to Winsipedia. Akron is 2-16 ATS its L18 following a SU Loss.

Miami—The Cradle of Coaches—is atop the East Division and having one of its best seasons in years with QB Brett Gabbert (1,734 yards, 9 TD/6 INT) and the Red Hawks went 7-1 ATS in MAC play last year and will likely play Western Michigan (7-4, 5-2 MAC) or Central Michigan (7-4, 5-2 MAC) in the MAC Championship Game on Saturday, Dec. 5 at Ford Field in Detroit (ESPN).

No team in FBS has scored fewer points than King Rat Akron (10.6 ppg) or scored fewer TDs (13) and the Zips have put up 3-20-24-7-29-3-0-0-6-14 in 10 straight SU and ATS Losses and have L15 SU overall dating back to last season. In its last MACtion, host Akron was defeated by Eastern Michigan, 42-14, failing to cover as big 17-point Dogs despite scoring more points than their L4 games combined. Ay Dios mio! mis Cremalleras.

Expect Redhawk RBs Jaylon Bester (436/9/4.5 ypc) and Tyre Shelton (376/1/5.4) to have big Rushing nights for the homeboys with Gabbert likely to find WRs Jalen Walker (16/248/2/21.8 ypc), James Maye (24.6 ypc), Dominique Robinson (21.1 ypc) and Jack Sorenson (2 TDs) as well as TE Andrew Homer 2 TDs) to be open much of the night and to inflate their mediocre numbers. A bomb to Walker for a TD to start the game makes much Earthly sense.

This is a strict Akron Fade, trying to get the best number as early as possible thinking that nobody will want to back the Zips Monday-Wednesday. It could be Cold in Oxford on Hump Day evening, with TWC forecasting Cloudy and Humid (96%) conditions with a Low of 38° and light SSE Winds around 6 mph. Akron has been down 21-0 (EM), 21-0 (NIU), 21-6 (BG), 7-0 (BUF), 17-3 (KENT) at Halftime its L5 games, being outscored 87-9 in the process, scoring 0 TDs over that span in the first 30 minutes. The same as us here. That’s not good.

Miami (Ohio) 41 Akron 7

 
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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Pinny

Sabres +120

Updated: Graded Raiders RSW U6 -125 a loss.............since it will be....Julio Jones is probably, too - but will wait on that one a tad longer)
Winkyduck 586-793-43 +12.83 UNITS (Daniel Farke to be next PL Manager to leave his job +1400; Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400; Vegas Knights to win the West +550)
 
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