>Posting Thursday for Thursday spot for Friday game...
Friday, October 11, 2019—111 Colorado State -3 -115 (Intertops)
8 pm EDT/5 pm PDT (CBSSN, DirecTV 221)—The number in this one has gone down from Colorado State (minus) 7 to 3 with Rams QB Collin Hill (Torn ACL Left Knee) Out for the third time with the same injury to the same body part. But this Pick is more Art (75%) than Science (25%) with thoughts that despite CSU’s regression, these two MWC teams are still at different levels.
After Hill was injured against Arkansas, redshirt JR Patrick O’Brien came in and played admirably against the Razorbacks, ending with 10 completions for 106 yards and a TD. Since then, O’Brien—a transfer from Nebraska—has thrown for 974 yards but only 3 TDs with 2 INTs and a 52.9 QBR (#77 FBS). Behind O’Brien is redshirt JR Justice McCoy. After facing Arkansas, Toledo, Utah St and San Diego St, all Losses, CSU’s Power Ratings and Perceptions have slid for many. Then, toss in the starting QB going out for the year, and you have a seemingly small number for Road chalk CSU (1-5 SU, 3-2 ATS) against New Mexico (2-3 SU/ATS) at Dreamstyle (formerly University) Stadium (FieldTurf) in Albuquerque on Friday night (Total 66½).
Expectations (Art) and Strength of Schedule (Science) would be the two things I’d weigh heaviest here with CSU 19-6 SU the L25 meetings (15-9 ATS) since 1992) and generally considered an average to decent team the L20 years while NM has definitely bordered, and still may be, living in Rat range. New Mexico has played NMS-FCS LIB-SJS its L3 games while CSU has had to bang helmets with TOL-USU-SDS, a huge difference in talent levels.
If NM allowed 52 points to NMS, how many will CSU score, even with a 2nd-string QB? With RB Marvin Kinsey Jr (618 rushing yards, 4 TDs) and WRs Dante Wright (32/487/3), Warren Jackson (31/327/3)—Concussion, Listed Questionable on Thursday—EJ Scott (10/152/1) and Nate Craig-Myers (12/253/1), O’Brien has a pretty nice group to throw the football to with RB Kinsey Jr also a decent pass-catcher (15/208/2) and able to be targeted more should Jackson not be able to go, with Jadon Walker also a possibility. And note that lead WR Dante Wright has 10 Rushing attempts for 117 yards and 2 TDs, so expect HC Mike Bobo (26-25-1 ATS) to use the 5-10, 165-pound Freshman once or twice on an End Around to possibly score on New Mexico’s Swiss Cheese D.
CSU’s (2-0 SU vs NM L2 years) lone Win in 2019 is vs FCS Western Illinois while NM’s two Wins came against FCS Sam Houston State in the opener and vs Land Of Enchantment rivals New Mexico State, 55-52 in a thriller in the annual Rio Grande Rivalry in ABQ in which the Lobos held off the Aggies, so, this is where the rubber hits the road for both teams with MWC play kicking into high gear.
The Rams, better in past seasons, are a profitable 8-4 ATS the L12 at Albuquerque and 5-1 ATS the L6 series meetings, beating NM as 2-point Underdogs at Home last season (20-18) but only beating Los Lobos, 27-24 as 10-point chalks the last time they played at 1111 University Boulevard SE (2017). Los Lobos (9-15 ATS vs CSU since 1992) are coming in 15-24 ATS their L39 (38.5%) and with the Rams having so few opportunities for Wins and really needing one here, they should play an aggressive Offensive game and be able to outscore Sheriron Jones and the hosts by double digits. CSU may be a good Teaser starter also, at +4 after applying +7 to the current predominant (-) 3’s on the betting board. New Mexico scares nobody. Ask Liberty.
Colorado State 41 New Mexico 31