EOG's Best Bet thread for Wednesday, October 23

#5
Wednesday, October 23, 2019—209802 NYCFC-Toronto FC Over 2½ -167 (Intertops)

7 pm EDT/4 pm PDT (FS1, FOX Deportes, TSN, TVAS)—The MLS Cup Playoffs enter Round 2 with two games on Wednesday, including this Eastern Conference Semifinal showdown between 4-seed Toronto FC and top-seed NYCFC from Citi Field (Kentucky Bluegrass) in Flushing, Queens, NY with The Bronx Blues playing their second game ever in Queens and the home of the Mets and and not in their usual home, Yankee Stadium, with, at the time, a potential conflict with the Yankees—partial owners of NYCFC—still alive in the ALCS forcing the move. If the damn Rain had only held off one day?

Like with The House That Ruth Built, Citi Field was built for MLB, and will provide even smaller dimensions than the ancient but iconic Yankee Stadium. Can you imagine a world without Tigers, Twinkies and Yankee Stadium? Because of this, two things stand out: 1—Any Homefield Advantage NYCFC earned in the Regular Season has been evaporated and this club has only played once in Citi Field, on Decision Day 2017 vs the Crew. And, 2—The tighter confines means less ground to travel and along with the nervous do-or-die nature of this elimination game point to at least 3 and maybe 4 or more Goals being scored in the home of the M-E-T-S Mets! Mets! Mets!


NYCFC will enter the match—to be refereed by El Paso native Jair Marrufo—off an earned Bye as the conference’s #1 seed while TFC routed DC United, 5-1 in their MLS Cup opener in Toronto to advance to this game and will lay with just 3 Rest Days (Sun-Mon-Tue). Although Jozy Altidore (Quad) will likely miss, Omar Gonzalez (Hamstring), Marky Delgado and Chris Mavinga are expected to be back for the Reds (+271) and HC Greg Vanney who have gone 11 straight matches without a Loss (5-6-0). And that kind of reality along with 5 goals in your last game and a host with no real Homepitch Edge means looking a the Total here seems the wiser approach. Alejandro Pozuelo scored twice vs NYCFC in his MLS debut on March 29 at BMO and will be ready to try to ruin the New York City Football Club (DWDWLW) party and advancement on to the Eastern Conference Finals.

The 5-1 scoreline from the Reds (DWDDW) last match is deceiving, with Under and Draw bettors the actual winners vs DCU with TFC scoring 4 of its 5 goals in AET—including 2 from Jonathan Osorio—to get to this point. With Pozuelo (12 goals, 13 assists), Nick DeLeon (5 goals) and Marco Delgado (7 assists) and the Confidence gleaned from the roll they are on, the Reds should have as many decent scoring attempts and the Bronx Blues in a building where few players have actually played a Soccer match.

With the electric Héber (15 goals), Alexandru Mitriță (12 goals) and Valentín Castellanos (11 goals), NYCFC—which played a Friendly with the Chicago Fire to stay in shape for this match—the Cityzens have a talented trio who can score but Michael Bradley and TFC actually outplayed the higher-seeded hosts, winning 4-0 in TO and tying 1-1 in The Bronx in the MLS Regular Season. Six of the L7 meetings between these two have had at least 3 goals (NYCFC 1-1 TFC, TFC 4-0 NYCFC, TFC 2-3 NYCFC, NYCFC 2-1 TFC, TFC 4-0 NYCFC, NYCFC 2-2 TFC, NYCFC 0-5 TFC) with both having 4 Wins and 5 Draws in 9 all-time meetings with TFC holding a 28-19 goal-scoring edge, thanks in great part, to 5-0 and 4-0 wins along the way.

I completely botched the Site on my Real Madrid pick here on Tuesday, so apologies as I hadicapped and wrote that off two odds screens and am often wondering who the Home team is. My bad. No wonder the odds were so low. Anyway, I am 0-5 the L5 on which I have gotten the Site right and 1-0 the L1 on which I have gotten the Site wrong, so Lord Gamblor laughs at us Homers while we dream about where we left our car in 1979 or something. Fuck that asshole. I blame him for not having pristine Records in NCAAF, NFL, one day to be accounted. And, of course, this game has a funky Site, maybe bad for NYCFC. Hey Louie, where’s my lucky locker? It’s back in The Bronx, Billy. Of course.

And we all know Lord Gamblor pisses Bad Beats and is responsible for the weird stuff like Veracruz in Liga MX who let Tigres UANL score twice in a 2:39-long protest over unpaid wages to start the game last Friday night. Over players wanted to tug on Lord Gamblor’s Johnson while Under bettors wanted to make Gonad-flavoured Shaved Ice out his animated testes (2½o EV). Tigres UANL went on to win, 3-1, taking a 3-0 lead 8 minutes in to seal the Over. Where were we? (I had Tigres on a $5 Parlay which lost on Saturday but was unaware until I saw SVP talking about it on ESPN on Monday night).

There seems like there may be some value in TFC here, but the Situation and (new) Site means taking the Over seems logical, with a 3 pushing and only 2 goals (or less) being scored certainly deserving of a Loss. Watch this new sensation AMF Pozuelo (Designated Player from Spain) for TFC. Intertops and Heritage are hanging 2½’s this morning, so I will lay the heavier juice in hopes of a Win here, but this was written as 3 being OK also. The score below speaks.

NYCFC 2 Toronto FC 3 (AET)

1571843570124.png

Note: (I am watching Doug Kezerian on ESPN’s Daily Wager and heard him say “value play.” They are -38.83 units since their relaunch (Aug 19), but at least they are honest. I like that. People who accept Truth. These letters that spilled out of my keyboard while writing my NYCFC-TFC preview:
The only “Value Play” is one thart ultimately wins, with all other perceived “Value Plays”” simply being reduced to crumpled-up shiny pieces of computer paper here in Las Vegas, the Mecca of Sports Gambling, unless, of course, you bet on your Smartphone where all of your losses become invisible in the silent Cyberlight. Value is probably best defined by the Food we ultimately eat after Big Bets because of the Wins/Losses.
I used to reward my Wins with Pizzas but now accept Spaghetti as we tread forward and the USA looks less appealing than it did a year ago. This morning a flock of starving pigeons followed me as I slowly crooked-caned my way to empty the garbage after two angry and stout Mexicans with pick axes working for an electrical company scowled at me (probably) for simply being a Whte man and not a sexy Hispanic Woman emptying her garbage. Maybe they must think I am in charge of the Pigeons. I am not. They are in charge of me it seems.
No US Mail is being delivered to my mail boxes at this point in Time, similar to last year when Stoudt Management owned the place, so perceived improvements taste similar to 2018’s Busllshit. We are all fucked and invisible until we owe the fuckers $11.17. Then they suddenly seem to care. The World has never seemed more cold and greedy. Where’s my fucking Mail? Don’t scowl at me. You are making me feel GOP-like and mad at you, Tito. Please fuck off.
And my poor Cat has had to hide out all day from the rock-picking noise best suited for inmates in the Twenties. But he is used to it by now. Some idiots got him and his brother as kittens (like Toys) and then cruelly abandoned them in their House when they couldn’t pay the mortgage. Sort of like what we are now doing with the Kurds. Most Las Vegans seem to be assholes and this new influx of Southern Californian Raiders fucks seems like it will only make it worse. In the name of Fred Biletnikoff, please bring some Kindness and Decency with you in that U-Haul. And please try to learn more than one Raiders’ name. I know it’s hard.
Las Vegas has always been more of a Neon Light-Hype Hope and Thought than a real decent place to live and mature as an Earthly Soul and without the (Hoover-Boulder) Dam, Nellis AFB, the warm Weather, Great Food, Fake Titties and legal Gambling, Lost Wages would be just another boring stop in the Mojave Desert. As always, keep your head on a swivel. Putting garbage in a garbage can or helping Animals is the last thing on most of these people’s minds as they find out like most of us, that Sin City is a hard place in which to try to live a human Life. We’re all in this together, it’s just that more of us are meaner and more distant than before because of the constant Bullshit. When is the last time you got a real Landline) phone call?
 
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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#12
Wednesday, October 23, 2019—209802 NYCFC-Toronto FC Over 2½ -167 (Intertops)

7 pm EDT/4 pm PDT (FS1, FOX Deportes, TSN, TVAS)

There seems like there may be some value in TFC here, but the Situation and (new) Site means taking the Over seems logical, with a 3 pushing and only 2 goals (or less) being scored certainly deserving of a Loss. Watch this new sensation AMF Pozuelo (Designated Player from Spain) for TFC. Intertops and Heritage are hanging 2½’s this morning, so I will lay the heavier juice in hopes of a Win here, but this was written as 3 being OK also. The score below speaks.

NYCFC 2 Toronto FC 3 (AET)

View attachment 7459747
Kevin and I agree that when all is said and done TFC moves on

He likes OVER. I'll play this, instead

BetOnline

Toronto FC to Advance +160

Doesn't matter if it is done in 90 or 120 minutes or PKs. As long as Toronto advances to the Conf Finals - this play is a winner

***And I'll say right now my Thursday play will be the LA Galaxy +325 (current price) to Advance past LAFC***
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#22
Kevin and I agree that when all is said and done TFC moves on

He likes OVER. I'll play this, instead

BetOnline

Toronto FC to Advance +160

Doesn't matter if it is done in 90 or 120 minutes or PKs. As long as Toronto advances to the Conf Finals - this play is a winner

***And I'll say right now my Thursday play will be the LA Galaxy +325 (current price) to Advance past LAFC***
Kevin and I are very happy. TFC puts home a 90th minute Penalty to win 2-1

Updated:
Winkyduck 576-775-42 +18.40 UNITS (Astros to Win the WS +110 AND Most Strikeouts in a WS game by a single pitcher OVER 9 -120 AND Gerrit Cole to be WS MVP +800; Mike Matheny to be next KC Royals Manager +150; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400; Vegas Knights to win the West +550)
 
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