Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007
Projection Review - Hitters
Here's a look at some of my preseason projections for offensive players. First up is a run-through of some of the notable projections by position. At the end of the column is a chart looking at my OPS projections.
Next to each player's name and team are his preseason AL- or NL-only dollar ranking and his overall position ranking.
Catchers
Preseason Top 5
Joe Mauer - Twins - $26 - #1
Projection: .322/.410/.494, 16 HR, 90 R, 81 RBI, 8 SB in 506 AB
2007 stats: .293/.382/.426, 7 HR, 62 R, 60 RBI, 7 SB in 406 AB
Victor Martinez - Indians - $24 - #2
Projection: .303/.381/.477, 21 HR, 81 R, 96 RBI, 0 SB in 545 AB
2007 stats: .301/.374/.505, 25 HR, 78 R, 114 RBI, 0 SB in 562 AB
Mike Piazza - Athletics - $20 - #3
Projection: .273/.360/.486, 28 HR, 69 R, 95 RBI, 0 SB in 539 AB
2007 stats: .275/.313/.414, 8 HR, 33 R, 44 RBI, 0 SB in 309 AB
Piazza wasn't hitting for power before his shoulder injury, so it's hard to blame that for his downfall. I thought he'd be an outstanding fantasy catcher while acting as a DH. Now he's lost eligibility there, and he's not a lock to find a DH job this winter.
Brian McCann - Braves - $21 - #4
Projection: .295/.366/.501, 22 HR, 66 R, 83 RBI, 3 SB in 457 AB
2007 stats: .270/.320/.452, 18 HR, 51 R, 92 RBI, 0 SB in 504 AB
Ivan Rodriguez - Tigers - $18 - #5
Projection: .291/.332/.443, 14 HR, 80 R, 71 RBI, 6 SB in 512 AB
2007 stats: .281/.294/.420, 11 HR, 50 R, 63 RBI, 2 SB in 502 AB
Others
Michael Barrett - Cubs/Padres - $14 - #10
Projection: .286/.351/.491, 17 HR, 55 R, 70 RBI, 1 SB in 430 AB
2007 stats: .244/.281/.372, 9 HR, 29 R, 41 RBI, 2 SB in 344 AB
My biggest OPS miss among guys projected for at least 300 at-bats. Barrett finished at 826, 824 and 885 the previous three years. There's every reason to think he'll bounce back next year if he lands in the right situation. He was only truly awful this year after the deal to San Diego.
Ramon Hernandez - Orioles - $16 - #7
Projection: .277/.339/.460, 20 HR, 63 R, 82 RBI, 1 SB in 483 AB
2007 stats: .258/.333/.382, 9 HR, 40 R, 62 RBI, 1 SB in 364 AB
Kenji Johjima - Mariners - $14 - #9
Projection: .283/.338/.432, 16 HR, 59 R, 71 RBI, 4 SB in 488 AB
2007 stats: .287/.322/.433, 14 HR, 52 R, 61 RBI, 0 SB in 485 AB
Johjima hit .248 with RISP, versus .302 with the bases empty, or else this would have been an even better projection.
Paul Lo Duca - Mets - $11 - #15
Projection: .281/.323/.398, 9 HR, 71 R, 54 RBI, 2 SB in 502 AB
2007 stats: .272/.311/.378, 9 HR, 46 R, 54 RBI, 2 SB in 445 AB
Lo Duca hit second just 32 times in 2007, so the run and at-bat projections were well off. Still, nothing to be embarrassed about here.
Russell Martin - Dodgers - $16 - #8
Projection: .287/.364/.427, 12 HR, 65 R, 66 RBI, 9 SB in 464 AB
2007 stats: .293/.374/.469, 19 HR, 87 R, 87 RBI, 21 SB in 540 AB
Bengie Molina - Giants - $9 - #17
Projection: .277/.321/.422, 14 HR, 39 R, 65 RBI, 0 SB in 415 AB
2007 stats: .276/.298/.433, 19 HR, 38 R, 81 RBI, 0 SB in 497 AB
Silly me for thinking that Molina would get driven in by his teammates 25 times. It actually happened on just 19 occasions, even though he had an extra 82 at-bats over my projection.
Jorge Posada - Yankees - $16 - #6
Projection: .268/.372/.456, 20 HR, 68 R, 85 RBI, 1 SB in 471 AB
2007 stats: .338/.426/.543, 20 HR, 91 R, 90 RBI, 2 SB in 506 AB
Jason Varitek - Red Sox - $11 - #14
Projection: .263/.351/.437, 16 HR, 61 R, 71 RBI, 2 SB in 449 AB
2007 stats: .255/.367/.421, 17 HR, 57 R, 68 RBI, 1 SB in 435 AB
First Basemen
Preseason Top 5
Albert Pujols - Cardinals - $42 - #1
Projection: .333/.436/.644, 43 HR, 126 R, 124 RBI, 8 SB in 571 AB
2007 stats: .327/.429/.568, 32 HR, 99 R, 103 RBI, 2 SB in 565 AB
Ryan Howard - Phillies - $37 - #2
Projection: .291/.400/.613, 53 HR, 112 R, 131 RBI, 0 SB in 584 AB
2007 stats: .268/.392/.584, 47 HR, 94 R, 136 RBI, 1 SB in 529 AB
I should have gone lower than .291 for Howard's average. There was little chance that he was going to hit close to .313 again while striking out as often as he does.
Mark Teixeira - Rangers - $33- #3
Projection: .294/.386/.572, 41 HR, 111 R, 128 RBI, 2 SB in 622 AB
2007 stats: .306/.400/.563, 30 HR, 86 R, 105 RBI, 0 SB in 494 AB
Taking his numbers out to 622 at-bats would give him 38 homers, 108 R and 132 RBI. If not for the quad strain, this could have been an outstanding projection.
Lance Berkman - Astros - $30 - #4
Projection: .303/.416/.569, 34 HR, 111 R, 109 RBI, 4 SB in 548 AB
2007 stats: .278/.386/.510, 34 HR, 95 R, 102 RBI, 7 SB in 561 AB
Derrek Lee - Cubs - $30 - #5
Projection: .286/.376/.539, 35 HR, 106 R, 104 RBI, 13 SB in 590 AB
2007 stats: .317/.400/.513, 22 HR, 91 R, 82 RBI, 6 SB in 567 AB
Great OPS projection, lousy fantasy projection.
Others
Carlos Delgado - Mets - $24 - #8
Projection: .273/.374/.538, 34 HR, 97 R, 115 RBI, 0 SB in 532 AB
2007 stats: .258/.333/.448, 24 HR, 71 R, 87 RBI, 4 SB in 538 AB
Prince Fielder - Brewers - $21 - #12
Projection: .277/.359/.510, 31 HR, 87 R, 92 RBI, 5 SB in 553 AB
2007 stats: .288/.395/.618, 50 HR, 109 R, 119 RBI, 2 SB in 573 AB
There was no question in my mind that Fielder had this kind of potential, but since I really thought he was another year away, I gave him only modest boosts from his rookie line (.271-28-81).
Nomar Garciaparra - Dodgers - $15 - #18
Projection: .299/.357/.500, 19 HR, 75 R, 73 RBI, 4 SB in 442 AB
2007 stats: .283/.328/.371, 7 HR, 39 R, 59 RBI, 3 SB in 431 AB
In a way, this isn't as bad as the Lee projection. Sure, I was way over, but since I was projecting declines from 2006 and had 17 first basemen ahead of him, I don't think many people using my rankings ended up with him on draft day.
Ross Gload - Royals - $3 - #30
Projection: .285/.329/.426, 7 HR, 37 R, 44 RBI, 4 SB in 298 AB
2007 stats: .288/.318/.441, 7 HR, 37 R, 51 RBI, 2 SB in 320 AB
I had to include this one here, mainly because it doesn't qualify in the OPS projection review below. Gload hit .321 and .327 the only other two years in which he had received significant major league action, so putting him at .285 and nailing it was one of my better picks.
Travis Hafner - Indians - $31 - DH #2
Projection: .302/.416/.595, 37 HR, 111 R, 125 RBI, 1 SB in 533 AB
2007 stats: .266/.385/.451, 24 HR, 80 R, 100 RBI, 1 SB in 545 AB
Elbow issues may be at the root of Hafner's decline, though he hasn't gone public with any excuses. A lot of players would be thrilled with an 836 OPS and 100 RBI, but Hafner was one of the game's biggest disappointments this year.
Todd Helton - Rockies - $22 - #10
Projection: .308/.419/.512, 21 HR, 104 R, 88 RBI, 2 SB in 549 AB
2007 stats: .320/.434/.494, 17 HR, 86 R, 91 RBI, 0 SB in 557 AB
I had big misses on Helton two years in a row, so I was glad to come quite a bit closer this year. It was disappointing just how few runs he scored from the cleanup spot in the Colorado order. He crossed home plate just 11 times in April despite getting reaching safely on 58 occasions.
Justin Morneau - Twins - $28 - #6
Projection: .289/.362/.543, 37 HR, 97 R, 116 RBI, 2 SB in 589 AB
2007 stats: .271/.343/.492, 31 HR, 84 R, 111 RBI, 1 SB in 590 AB
Morneau seemed poised for another great season until collapsing in August. He had only three homers and 22 RBI while hitting .222 over the final two months.
David Ortiz - Red Sox - $32 - DH #1
Projection: .291/.410/.593, 44 HR, 112 R, 133 RBI, 0 SB in 570 AB
2007 stats: .332/.445/.621, 35 HR, 116 R, 117 RBI, 3 SB in 549 AB
Bizarre that he had more than one steal in a year for the first time in a career even though his knee was bothering him most of the way.
Carlos Pena - Devil Rays - $1 - #35
Projection: .257/.339/.481, 12 HR, 31 R, 38 RBI, 2 SB in 237 AB
2007 stats: .282/.411/.627, 46 HR, 99 R, 121 RBI, 1 SB in 490 AB
An 820 OPS was actually pretty aggressive here. There was simply no way of knowing this was coming.
Richie Sexson - Mariners - $23 - #9
Projection: .264/.346/.522, 37 HR, 92 R, 114 RBI, 1 SB in 575 AB
2007 stats: .205/.295/.399, 21 HR, 58 R, 63 RBI, 1 SB in 434 AB
Jim Thome - White Sox - $25 - DH #3
Projection: .274/.403/.564, 39 HR, 104 R, 100 RBI, 0 SB in 500 AB
2007 stats: .275/.410/.563, 35 HR, 79 R, 96 RBI, 0 SB in 432 AB
Dmitri Young - Nationals - $3 - #33
Projection: .264/.322/.437, 9 HR, 30 R, 34 RBI, 1 SB in 261 AB
2007 stats: .320/.378/.491, 13 HR, 57 R, 74 RBI, 0 SB in 460 AB
Second Basemen
Preseason Top 5
Chase Utley - Phillies - $34 - #1
Projection: .296/.371/.524, 32 HR, 118 R, 106 RBI, 12 SB in 626 AB
2007 stats: .332/.410/.566, 22 HR, 104 R, 103 RBI, 9 SB in 530 AB
Brian Roberts - Orioles - $23 - #2
Projection: .284/.355/.416, 11 HR, 100 R, 58 RBI, 31 SB in 589 AB
2007 stats: .290/.377/.432, 12 HR, 103 R, 57 RBI, 50 SB in 621 AB
Robinson Cano - Yankees - $22 - #3
Projection: .311/.346/.488, 19 HR, 78 R, 91 RBI, 4 SB in 570 AB
2007 stats: .306/.353/.488, 19 HR, 93 R, 97 RBI, 4 SB in 617 AB
Cano didn't get his OPS over 700 for good until June, but he was one of the AL's best in the second half, batting .343/.396/.557 with 13 HR and 57 RBI in 75 games.
Jeff Kent - Dodgers - $22 - #4
Projection: .283/.367/.485, 24 HR, 84 R, 100 RBI, 3 SB in 538 AB
2007 stats: .302/.375/.500, 20 HR, 78 R, 79 RBI, 1 SB in 494 AB
A very disappointing RBI total for Kent and not all of the blame goes to Rafael Furcal, Juan Pierre and Nomar Garciaparra. Kent hit .293 with RISP, but he had just 10 extra-base hits in 150 at-bats. He had 37 extra-base hits in 245 at-bats with the bases empty.
Howie Kendrick - Angels - $21 - #5
Projection: .306/.341/.456, 13 HR, 77 R, 75 RBI, 17 SB in 572 AB
2007 stats: .322/.347/.450, 5 HR, 55 R, 39 RBI, 5 SB in 338 AB
Kendrick was just as productive as expected, but he was a disappointment from a fantasy perspective because of his modest homer and steal totals. He really needs to work on a basestealing technique before next season begins. He's plenty quick enough to swipe 30 bases a year.
Others
Josh Barfield - Indians - $18 - #11
Projection: .283/.327/.444, 17 HR, 75 R, 73 RBI, 18 SB in 552 AB
2007 stats: .243/.270/.324, 3 HR, 53 R, 50 RBI, 14 SB in 420 AB
Craig Biggio - Astros - $8 - #24
Projection: .253/.320/.413, 17 HR, 81 R, 56 RBI, 5 SB in 526 AB
2007 stats: .251/.285/.381, 10 HR, 68 R, 50 RBI, 4 SB in 517 AB
Luis Castillo - Twins - $11 - #20
Projection: .291/.370/.364, 2 HR, 89 R, 44 RBI, 17 SB in 539 AB
2007 stats: .301/.362/.359, 1 HR, 91 R, 38 RBI, 19 SB in 548 AB
Castillo has had an OPS in the 720-780 range in each of the last six seasons. He's also been very steady with his run and RBI numbers. The only real work for a guesser like me is trying to figure out how many bases he's going to steal. I was quite close this time.
Ray Durham - Giants - $13 - #15
Projection: .283/.361/.448, 14 HR, 68 R, 85 RBI, 6 SB in 466 AB
2007 stats: .218/.295/.343, 11 HR, 56 R, 71 RBI, 10 SB in 464 AB
I had him losing 90 points off his career-best 2006 OPS. Instead it was 260.
Marcus Giles - Padres - $15 - #13
Projection: .278/.363/.429, 14 HR, 93 R, 53 RBI, 14 SB in 571 AB
2007 stats: .229/.304/.317, 4 HR, 52 R, 44 RBI, 10 SB in 420 AB
917, 821, 826, 729 and 621. Those are Giles' OPSs in his five full years in the majors. He'll have to be better far away from Petco Park next year, but he's going to have trouble landing a starting job after back-to-back poor years.
Kaz Matsui - Rockies - $5 - #28
Projection: .279/.330/.427, 9 HR, 54 R, 39 RBI, 12 SB in 377 AB
2007 stats: .288/.342/.405, 4 HR, 84 R, 37 RBI, 32 SB in 410 AB
I actually overshot Matsui's OPS on his supposed breakthrough year. By month, he had OPSs of 867, 586, 851, 534, 883 and 614. He was a great basestealer, so the fantasy projection isn't good at all. Still, it's not like he can suddenly be counted on as a quality regular going forward.
Dustin Pedroia - Red Sox - $6 - #27
Projection: .276/.350/.393, 8 HR, 65 R, 59 RBI, 4 SB in 468 AB
2007 stats: .317/.380/.442, 8 HR, 86 R, 50 RBI, 7 SB in 520 AB
Missing this badly hurts, especially since I was higher on Pedroia as a prospect than practically anyone else. As rarely as he strikes out, he should be able to maintain a .300 average going forward.
Brandon Phillips - Reds - $20 - #7
Projection: .271/.323/.424, 17 HR, 88 R, 70 RBI, 22 SB in 594 AB
2007 stats: .288/.331/.485, 30 HR, 107 R, 94 RBI, 32 SB in 650 AB
Placido Polanco - Tigers - $12 - #16
Projection: .292/.337/.403, 9 HR, 90 R, 59 RBI, 5 SB in 551 AB
2007 stats: .341/.388/.458, 9 HR, 105 R, 67 RBI, 7 SB in 587 AB
Rickie Weeks - Brewers - $21 - #6
Projection: .283/.371/.444, 17 HR, 87 R, 59 RBI, 23 SB in 520 AB
2007 stats: .235/.374/.433, 16 HR, 87 R, 36 RBI, 25 SB in 409 AB
Ty Wigginton - Devil Rays/Astros - $11 - #19
Projection: .270/.326/.458, 19 HR, 64 R, 78 RBI, 5 SB in 485 AB
2007 stats: .278/.333/.459, 22 HR, 71 R, 67 RBI, 3 SB in 547 AB
Third Basemen
Preseason Top 5
Alex Rodriguez - Yankees - $37 - #1
Projection: .296/.400/.567, 41 HR, 117 R, 122 RBI, 13 SB in 594 AB
2007 stats: .314/.422/.645, 54 HR, 143 R, 156 RBI, 24 SB in 583 AB
Miguel Cabrera - Marlins - $34 - #2
Projection: .317/.412/.570, 35 HR, 112 R, 111 RBI, 6 SB in 593 AB
2007 stats: .320/.401/.565, 34 HR, 91 R, 119 RBI, 2 SB in 588 AB
Only 91 runs scored was a disappointment. The lack of production from the guys behind him besides Josh Willingham is the main culprit, but it certainly doesn't help that Cabrera's expanding waistline has already cost him a step on the basepaths.
David Wright - Mets - $33 - #3
Projection: .307/.390/.539, 30 HR, 101 R, 114 RBI, 16 SB in 577 AB
2007 stats: .325/.416/.546, 30 HR, 113 R, 107 RBI, 34 SB in 604 AB
Garrett Atkins - Rockies - $28 - #4
Projection: .317/.390/.504, 24 HR, 111 R, 107 RBI, 2 SB in 621 AB
2007 stats: .301/.367/.486, 25 HR, 83 R, 111 RBI, 3 SB in 605 AB
It's easy to forget now, but Atkins actually opened the season batting third, with Matt Holliday in the fifth spot. That's the big reason for the strong run projection. He ended up batting fifth in 120 of his 157 games.
Aramis Ramirez - Cubs - $27 - #5
Projection: .290/.350/.552, 37 HR, 95 R, 116 RBI, 1 SB in 580 AB
2007 stats: .310/.366/.549, 26 HR, 72 R, 101 RBI, 0 SB in 506 AB
Others
Adrian Beltre - Mariners - $20 - #13
Projection: 280/.334/.473, 26 HR, 86 R, 92 RBI, 5 SB in 615 AB
2007 stats: .276/.319/.482, 26 HR, 87 R, 99 RBI, 14 SB in 595 AB
Everything except the steals. Beltre swiped 11 bases in 2006, but he averaged five per year in the four years prior.
Chone Figgins - Angels - $18 - #17
Projection: .281/.346/.385, 6 HR, 65 R, 48 RBI, 36 SB in 441 AB
2007 stats: .330/.393/.432, 3 HR, 81 R, 58 RBI, 41 SB in 442 AB
Alex Gordon - Royals - $19 - #19
Projection: .279/.358/.464, 19 HR, 75 R, 82 RBI, 10 SB in 509 AB
2007 stats: .247/.314/.411, 15 HR, 60 R, 60 RBI, 14 SB in 543 AB
Gordon was at .264/.305/.472 with nine homers after the break. Still, I was expecting more, especially when it came to OBP. He finished with a 137/41 K/BB ratio.
Akinori Iwamura - Devil Rays - $11 - #26
Projection: .284/.353/.441, 15 HR, 69 R, 66 RBI, 7 SB in 510 AB
2007 stats: .285/.359/.411, 7 HR, 82 R, 34 RBI, 12 SB in 491 AB
The most difficult thing with projecting Japanese players is trying to figure out how well their power will carry over. Iwamura topped out at 44 homers in 2004 and hit 32 in his final season in Japan, but he didn't even try to be that kind of hitter in the U.S., probably for good reason. Interesting is that of the seven homers the left-handed hitter did hit, five came southpaws.
Chipper Jones - Braves - $20 - #10
Projection: .295/.406/.539, 27 HR, 84 R, 89 RBI, 3 SB in 451 AB
2007 stats: .337/.425/.604, 29 HR, 108 R, 102 RBI, 5 SB in 513 AB
Mike Lowell - Red Sox - $13 - #23
Projection: .272/.335/.450, 19 HR, 75 R, 86 RBI, 2 SB in 551 AB
2007 stats: .324/.378/.501, 21 HR, 79 R, 120 RBI, 3 SB in 589 AB
B.J. Upton - Devil Rays - $10 - #28
Projection: .276/.347/.408, 9 HR, 52 R, 44 RBI, 24 SB in 395 AB
2007 stats: .300/.386/.508, 24 HR, 86 R, 82 RBI, 22 SB in 474 AB
Ryan Zimmerman - Nationals - $21 - #7
Projection: .285/.354/.476, 23 HR, 86 R, 97 RBI, 9 SB in 592 AB
2007 stats: .266/.330/.458, 24 HR, 99 R, 91 RBI, 4 SB in 653 AB
Shortstops
Preseason Top 5
Jose Reyes - Mets - $40 - #1
Projection: .294/.348/.479, 20 HR, 119 R, 69 RBI, 57 SB in 629 AB
2007 stats: .280/.354/.421, 12 HR, 119 R, 57 RBI, 78 SB in 681 AB
I had Reyes at 17 homers for the magazine projections, which were finalized in mid-January. The boost came after he hit four in spring training (plus one more in an intrasquad game). I usually don't mess with hitters' performance projections very much based on spring training, but I really thought Reyes was going to show more power this year.
Derek Jeter - Yankees - $31 - #2
Projection: .308/.385/.452, 17 HR, 120 R, 78 RBI, 21 SB in 626 AB
2007 stats: .322/.388/.452, 12 HR, 102 R, 73 RBI, 15 SB in 639 AB
I still don't get how Jeter scored just 102 runs while playing 156 games. The Yankees scored 968 runs, which is an average of 108 per lineup spot. Hitting second ahead of Bobby Abreu and Alex Rodriguez, it only figures that Jeter would have crossed the plate 120 times. On a per-at-bat basis, it was easily his worst ever showing in that category.
Miguel Tejeda - Orioles - $30 - #3
Projection: .299/.352/.503, 29 HR, 96 R, 118 RBI, 5 SB in 638 AB
2007 stats: .296/.357/.442, 18 HR, 72 R, 81 RBI, 2 SB in 514 AB
Tejada had 11 homers and 40 RBI in 60 games after the break, which suggests that his power numbers will be better next year.
Jimmy Rollins - Phillies - $30 - #4
Projection: .281/.339/.435, 15 HR, 117 R, 66 RBI, 37 SB in 665 AB
2007 stats: .296/.344/.531, 30 HR, 139 R, 94 RBI, 41 SB in 716 AB
Hanley Ramirez - Marlins - $29 - #5
Projection: .278/.342/.445, 15 HR, 106 R, 61 RBI, 43 SB in 604 AB
2007 stats: .332/.386/.562, 29 HR, 125 R, 81 RBI, 51 SB in 639 AB
Others
Stephen Drew - Diamondbacks - $16 - #14
Projection: .280/.338/.460, 17 HR, 85 R, 68 RBI, 8 SB in 539 AB
2007 stats: .238/.313/.370, 12 HR, 60 R, 60 RBI, 9 SB in 543 AB
It doesn't matter to anyone who lost a fantasy league with him this year, but Drew is hitting now. He's a top breakout candidate for 2008.
Rafael Furcal - Dodgers - $25 - #7
Projection: .281/.347/.420, 13 HR, 105 R, 56 RBI, 33 SB in 584 AB
2007 stats: .270/.333/.355, 6 HR, 87 R, 47 RBI, 25 SB in 581 AB
It's clear that the ankle injury took a real toll on Furcal's performance. He'll be very motivated to bounce back next year with free agency on the way.
Carlos Guillen - Tigers - $20 - #12
Projection: .303/.370/.465, 14 HR, 84 R, 78 RBI, 9 SB in 488 AB
2007 stats: .296/.357/.502, 21 HR, 86 R, 102 RBI, 13 SB in 564 AB
Back-to-back healthy seasons for Guillen, who had never played in more than 140 games before topping 150 each of the last two years.
Bill Hall - Brewers - $22 - #8
Projection: .276/.339/.473, 23 HR, 79 R, 93 RBI, 14 SB in 560 AB
2007 stats: .254/.315/.425, 14 HR, 59 R, 63 RBI, 4 SB in 452 AB
Felipe Lopez - Nationals - $22 - #9
Projection: .270/.346/.412, 14 HR, 91 R, 53 RBI, 35 SB in 597 AB
2007 stats: .245/.308/.352, 9 HR, 70 R, 50 RBI, 24 SB in 603 AB
Jhonny Peralta - Indians - $13 - #16
Projection: .278/.350/.446, 17 HR, 78 R, 76 RBI, 2 SB in 543 AB
2007 stats: .270/.341/.430, 21 HR, 87 R, 72 RBI, 4 SB in 574 AB
Troy Tulowitzki - Rockies - $10 - #25
Projection: .272/.341/.444, 15 HR, 61 R, 65 RBI, 7 SB in 489 AB
2007 stats: .291/.359/.479, 24 HR, 104 R, 99 RBI, 7 SB in 609 AB
This was still looking like a pretty good projection until he went and delivered 12 homers and 51 RBI in the final two months. At the end of July, he was hitting .277/.349/.427 with 12 homers and 48 RBI. He ended up with 59 R and 57 RBI in 70 games as a No. 2 hitter, versus 32 R and 30 RBI in 62 games in the No. 7 spot, which is where I was expecting him to bat all year.
Michael Young - Rangers - $28 - #6
Projection: .310/.357/.468, 19 HR, 107 R, 98 RBI, 6 SB in 671 AB
2007 stats: .315/.366/.418, 9 HR, 80 R, 94 RBI, 13 SB in 639 AB
Outfielders
Preseason Top 10
Carl Crawford - Devil Rays - $38 - #1
Projection: .310/.352/.492, 17 HR, 109 R, 74 RBI, 54 SB in 620 AB
2007 stats: .315/.355/.466, 11 HR, 93 R, 80 RBI, 50 SB in 584 AB
Alfonso Soriano - Cubs - $37 - #2
Projection: .282/.337/.523, 38 HR, 112 R, 85 RBI, 37 SB in 656 AB
2007 stats: .299/.337/.560, 33 HR, 97 R, 70 RBI, 19 SB in 579 AB
Vladimir Guerrero - Angels - $35 - #3
Projection: .319/.388/.555, 34 HR, 105 R, 113 RBI, 12 SB in 598 AB
2007 stats: .324/.403/.547, 27 HR, 89 R, 125 RBI, 2 SB in 574 AB
Carlos Beltran - Mets - $34 - #4
Projection: .277/.367/.536, 35 HR, 125 R, 106 RBI, 23 SB in 573 AB
2007 stats: .276/.353/.525, 33 HR, 93 R, 112 RBI, 23 SB in 554 AB
Bobby Abreu - Yankees - $33 - #5
Projection: .295/.417/.484, 23 HR, 114 R, 102 RBI, 28 SB in 576 AB
2007 stats: .283/.369/.445, 16 HR, 123 R, 101 RBI, 25 SB in 605 AB
Probably the two most vehement complaints regarding my oft-criticized monthly rankings, at least when it came to hitters, were my decisions to keep Abreu over Magglio Ordonez and rank Pat Burrell over Hunter Pence. Burrell vs. Pence worked out fine for me. Ordonez, though, maintained his outstanding performance all year long, and while Abreu was a top-10 fantasy outfielder over the final three months, he never matched Mags.
Manny Ramirez - Red Sox - $32 - #6
Projection: .308/.416/.591, 38 HR, 102 R, 123 RBI, 1 SB in 526 AB
2007 stats: .296/.388/.493, 20 HR, 84 R, 88 RBI, 0 SB in 483 AB
Manny hit .330 with 15 homers from May through July. It was a definite down year for him, but it was really only one particularly awful month, and he's back looking pretty good now that he's recovered from a strained oblique.
Grady Sizemore - Indians - $31 - #7
Projection: .296/.370/.513, 25 HR, 127 R, 86 RBI, 20 SB in 645 AB
2007 stats: .277/.390/.462, 24 HR, 118 R, 78 RBI, 33 SB in 628 AB
Matt Holliday - Rockies - $32 - #8
Projection: .307/.374/.552, 31 HR, 101 R, 112 RBI, 10 SB in 579 AB
2007 stats: .340/.405/.607, 36 HR, 120 R, 137 RBI, 11 SB in 636 AB
Ichiro Suzuki - Mariners - $31 - #9
Projection: .320/.373/.433, 12 HR, 113 R, 61 RBI, 36 SB in 674 AB
2007 stats: .351/.396/.431, 6 HR, 111 R, 68 RBI, 37 SB in 678 AB
Carlos Lee - Astros - $30 - #10
Projection: .288/.347/.523, 34 HR, 91 R, 114 RBI, 14 SB in 587 AB
2007 stats: .303/.354/.528, 32 HR, 93 R, 119 RBI, 10 SB in 627 AB
Others
Jason Bay - Pirates - $30 - #11
Projection: .292/.400/.532, 31 HR, 102 R, 107 RBI, 13 SB in 566 AB
2007 stats: .247/.327/.418, 21 HR, 78 R, 84 RBI, 4 SB in 538 AB
Barry Bonds - Giants - $20 - #30
Projection: .283/.455/.588, 29 HR, 90 R, 87 RBI, 4 SB in 364 AB
2007 stats: .276/.480/.565, 28 HR, 75 R, 66 RBI, 5 SB in 340 AB
So much for the thought that the league would be a little less afraid of a declining Bonds in 2007. Compared to 2006, he walked 17 more times in four fewer games played. With RISP, he had 59 walks and 76 official at-bats.
Pat Burrell - Phillies - $18 - #40
Projection: .269/.380/.491, 28 HR, 77 R, 101 RBI, 1 SB in 509 AB
2007 stats: .256/.400/.502, 30 HR, 77 R, 97 RBI, 0 SB in 472 AB
Eric Byrnes - Diamondbacks - $23 - #23
Projection: .270/.329/.459, 22 HR, 88 R, 84 RBI, 23 SB in 566 AB
2007 stats: .286/.353/.460, 21 HR, 103 R, 83 RBI, 50 SB in 626 AB
J.D. Drew - Red Sox - $21 - #25
Projection: .294/.415/.526, 24 HR, 91 R, 95 RBI, 3 SB in 487 AB
2007 stats: .270/.373/.423, 11 HR, 84 R, 64 RBI, 4 SB in 466 AB
Drew finished with OPSs of 1006, 931 and 891 the previous four years and was moving into the best hitter's park of his career, so 941 seemed reasonable to me. Only in June (963) and September (1072) did he even manage to exceed 800.
Adam Dunn - Reds - $27 - #13
Projection: .254/.390/.558, 46 HR, 111 R, 98 RBI, 6 SB in 573 AB
2007 stats: .264/.386/.554, 40 HR, 101 R, 106 RBI, 9 SB in 522 AB
Curtis Granderson - Tigers - $17 - #38
Projection: .270/.343/.460, 21 HR, 87 R, 76 RBI, 14 SB in 567 AB
2007 stats: .302/.361/.552, 23 HR, 122 R, 74 RBI, 26 SB in 612 AB
Ken Griffey Jr. - Reds - $11 - #63
Projection: .259/.340/.511, 25 HR, 65 R, 79 RBI, 0 SB in 405 AB
2007 stats: .277/.372/.468, 30 HR, 78 R, 93 RBI, 6 SB in 528 AB
The move to right field did seem to rein Griffey in a bit. I'll probably bump him up to the 450-475 at-bat range in 2008, which is higher than I've gone on him in several years.
Josh Hamilton - Reds - $2 - #119
Projection: .243/.287/.389, 9 HR, 42 R, 31 RBI, 11 SB in 288 AB
2007 stats: .292/.368/.554, 19 HR, 52 R, 47 RBI, 3 SB in 298 AB
Brad Hawpe - Rockies - $17 - #41
Projection: .296/.377/.523, 23 HR, 71 R, 84 RBI, 3 SB in 480 AB
2007 stats: .291/.387/.539, 29 HR, 80 R, 116 RBI, 0 SB in 516 AB
Andruw Jones - Braves - $25 - #18
Projection: .260/.349/.514, 38 HR, 98 R, 112 RBI, 4 SB in 580 AB
2007 stats: .222/.311/.413, 26 HR, 83 R, 94 RBI, 5 SB in 572 AB
Nook Logan - Nationals - $3 - #111
Projection: .256/.309/.343, 1 HR, 41 R, 21 RBI, 20 SB in 309 AB
2007 stats: .265/.304/.345, 0 HR, 39 R, 21 RBI, 23 SB in 325 AB
Logan, Jason Kubel, Jason Michaels and Lastings Milledge were lesser-name outfielders I was particularly close on.
Hideki Matsui - Yankees - $23 - #19
Projection: .297/.383/.493, 24 HR, 99 R, 108 RBI, 2 SB in 572 AB
2007 stats: .285/.367/.488, 25 HR, 100 R, 103 RBI, 4 SB in 547 AB
Magglio Ordonez - Tigers - $20 - #27
Projection: .295/.356/.487, 23 HR, 85 R, 102 RBI, 2 SB in 546 AB
2007 stats: .363/.434/.595, 28 HR, 117 R, 139 RBI, 4 SB in 595 AB
Juan Pierre - Dodgers - $26 - #15
Projection: .286/.336/.371, 2 HR, 102 R, 45 RBI, 55 SB in 672 AB
2007 stats: .293/.331/.353, 0 HR, 96 R, 41 RBI, 64 SB in 668 AB
Alex Rios - Blue Jays - $23 - #20
Projection: .297/.344/.488, 21 HR, 87 R, 90 RBI, 16 SB in 555 AB
2007 stats: .297/.354/.498, 24 HR, 114 R, 85 RBI, 17 SB in 643 AB
This could have been a great projection had he remained a No. 6 hitter all year long. However, thanks to injuries, he ended up hitting in the top third of the order in all but 13 of his games.
Aaron Rowand - Phillies - $13 - #62
Projection: .276/.333/.446, 17 HR, 70 R, 69 RBI, 13 SB in 514 AB
2007 stats: .309/.374/.515, 27 HR, 105 R, 89 RBI, 6 SB in 612 AB
Sammy Sosa - Rangers - $7 - #83
Projection: .252/.329/.454, 19 HR, 48 R, 64 RBI, 0 SB in 377 AB
2007 stats: .252/.311/.468, 21 HR, 53 R, 92 RBI, 0 SB in 412 AB
Josh Willingham - Marlins - $15 - #47
Projection: .272/.362/.471, 24 HR, 74 R, 87 RBI, 4 SB in 544 AB
2007 stats: .265/.364/.463, 21 HR, 75 R, 89 RBI, 8 SB in 521 AB
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL] - Diamondbacks - $15 - #46
Projection: .259/.340/.458, 21 HR, 75 R, 70 RBI, 18 SB in 506 AB
2007 stats: .237/.295/.467, 32 HR, 85 R, 68 RBI, 27 SB in 569 AB
Delmon Young - Devil Rays - $18 - #35
Projection: .290/.322/.454, 16 HR, 74 R, 85 RBI, 15 SB in 566 AB
2007 stats: .288/.316/.408, 13 HR, 65 R, 93 RBI, 10 SB in 645 AB