Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Re: Fantasy Football News 2007
Targeting mid-round QBs
After taking part in multiple late-offseason mock drafts, keeping an eye on ADP (Average Draft Position), and grasping fully Gregg Rosenthal's invaluable Tiering System for QBs, it's become clear that reaching into the top six rounds for quarterbacks not named here would be a mistake:
1. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1493"]Peyton Manning[/URL]
2. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2550"]Carson Palmer[/URL]
3. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=369"]Marc Bulger[/URL]
4. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=591"]Drew Brees[/URL]
5. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1163"]Tom Brady[/URL]
6. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=704"]Donovan McNabb[/URL]
7. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2730"]Tony Romo[/URL]
In fact, if you're confident enough to go with a quarterback not named above, pairing two who'll be available later and playing weekly matchups can be a league-winning strategy. Waiting for a pair of Tier Three-to-Five quarterbacks will allow you to fill out the remainder of your lineup while also landing a quality RB3 or WR3 and a high-quality starting tight end. Here are the Tier Three-to-Four QBs you should target, along with analysis. Look for these guys in Rounds 7-12, and grab two:
8. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=28"]Jon Kitna[/URL] - There are some owners out there who will actually believe Kitna's 50-TD prediction. In plenty of drafts, however, he will fall, and there's not a better QB value if you can get Kitna somewhere in Rounds 7-10. He's an every-week starter in an extremely passer-friendly Mike Martz offense with [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4153"]Calvin Johnson[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2691"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"]Roy Williams[/URL][/URL][/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=411"]Mike Furrey[/URL], and the underrated [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=370"]Shaun McDonald[/URL]. Whichever running back the Lions go with ([URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2665"]Tatum Bell[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2659"]Kevin Jones[/URL], or [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3641"]Brian Calhoun[/URL]) all possess the ability to catch, then make things happen afterwards.
9. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3602"]Vince Young[/URL] - His receiving corps is unremarkable, but the Titans have encouraged VY to run more this season, which should translate to a large increase in his fantasy production. Young could even become Tennessee's go-to running option near the goal line if [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3637"]LenDale White[/URL] can't hang onto a starting job. His passing stats may be down near the 25-30th range, but Young's legs make him a top-15 option with upside for the top 10 in all formats. He's a worthwhile seventh-to-ninth round pick.
10. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=519"]Matt Hasselbeck[/URL] - The entire Seahawks offense experienced a bit of a down year in 2006 due to injuries. Hasselbeck struggled with a knee ailment for the second half of the season and had his top offensive weapon ([URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=555"]Shaun Alexander[/URL]) available for only ten games. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=481"]Darrell Jackson[/URL] was banged up, as usual, and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=538"]Bobby Engram[/URL]'s thyroid condition rendered him almost completely ineffective. But Mike Holmgren is still the same offensive genius he's always been and will get the 'Hawks turned around. Hasselbeck's surgery on his non-throwing shoulder shouldn't affect anything he does during the season, and he's a good bet to bounce back for a QB1 year. Hasselbeck normally can be had in Rounds 8-10.
11. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1813"]Philip Rivers[/URL] - Even if Norv Turner can't make the Chargers better as a team, the least he'll do is make Rivers better. Turner has a great history of helping quarterbacks reach their potential, and a more vertical offense featuring Rivers' arm along with [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3202"]Vincent Jackson[/URL] and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4221"]Craig Davis[/URL]' skill sets figures only to bring the best out of an emerging air attack. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=561"]LaDainian Tomlinson[/URL] is great, but he probably won't score 31 times again. Look for Rivers and company to pick up the slack. And look for Rivers in the ninth-to-eleventh rounds.
12. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1181"]Ben Roethlisberger[/URL] - Big Ben hopes to rebound after never seeming to find his footing following an offseason motorcycle crash and subsequent pre-Week 1 emergency appendectomy. Roethlisberger still has the talent and will be more equipped with receivers on the field thanks to new coordinator Bruce Arians' multi-wide sets. Arians' offense should get [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3145"]Heath Miller[/URL] more involved and spread out opposing defenses. Roethlisberger is again fully healthy and should capitalize. Considering how low he's going in drafts, Roethlisberger may be the best value among all QBs, even better than Kitna. You can often wait until Round 10 or even later to snare him.
13. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3608"]Jay Cutler[/URL] - Cutler may not have the services of [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1962"]Rod Smith[/URL] (hip surgery) for the first half of the season, but Denver did upgrade at running back by signing [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2271"]Travis Henry[/URL] after finding no consistency from 2006's rotation of Tatum and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3770"]Mike Bell[/URL]. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3653"]Brandon Marshall[/URL] is set to be an intermediate weapon with his good speed and T.O.-like body. Marshall is also likely to see frequent single coverage with [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1741"]Javon Walker[/URL] opposite him. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1501"]Brandon Stokley[/URL] will provide assistance from the slot. Cutler's big arm and athleticism make him an ideal fit for coach Mike Shanahan's attack, and he's as good a bet as any young QB to have a breakout season. Don't reach higher than the tenth, but jump if Cutler is available after that.
14. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1657"]Eli Manning[/URL] - Hate on Eli all you want, but he still has a laser-rocket arm just like his brother. And the Giants only upgraded his receiving corps with second-round pick [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2386"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL][/URL][/URL] to go with a healthy returning [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3617"]Sinorice Moss[/URL]. New York lost a marquee tailback in [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=918"]Tiki Barber[/URL] but has groomed [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3146"]Brandon Jacobs[/URL] to take over the load. Manning is no bum (he's thrown 24 touchdowns in two seasons straight), and may be forced to pass even more with the Giants' defense looking as suspect as ever. Most owners are down on him, and Manning can be had in the latter half of 16- and 18-round drafts.
Tier Five Quarterbacks:
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3138"]Matt Leinart[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1478"]Byron Leftwich[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3137"]Jason Campbell[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1744"]Brett Favre[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2398"]Jake Delhomme[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2780"]J.P. Losman[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=16"]Matt Schaub[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3119"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL][/URL][/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2570"]Jeff Garcia[/URL]
Tampabaybuccaneers.com
These quarterbacks should be available in Round Nine through the end of your draft. All are worth roster spots, but are more clear-cut QB2s. Leftwich and Favre have the most upside. Please don't reach for Leinart, who is being taken as high as the sixth and seventh rounds in many drafts. The new coach in Arizona, Ken Whisenhunt, is a conservative, run-heavy former Steelers coordinator who won't go downfield nearly as much as Dennis Green. As good as he will be in time and as electrifying as his receivers are, it would be a grave mistake to expect consistent QB1 value from Leinart as a sophomore. We have the southpaw penciled in for a fantasy backup-esque 19:13 TD:INT ratio.
Targeting mid-round QBs
After taking part in multiple late-offseason mock drafts, keeping an eye on ADP (Average Draft Position), and grasping fully Gregg Rosenthal's invaluable Tiering System for QBs, it's become clear that reaching into the top six rounds for quarterbacks not named here would be a mistake:
1. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1493"]Peyton Manning[/URL]
2. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2550"]Carson Palmer[/URL]
3. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=369"]Marc Bulger[/URL]
4. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=591"]Drew Brees[/URL]
5. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1163"]Tom Brady[/URL]
6. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=704"]Donovan McNabb[/URL]
7. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2730"]Tony Romo[/URL]
In fact, if you're confident enough to go with a quarterback not named above, pairing two who'll be available later and playing weekly matchups can be a league-winning strategy. Waiting for a pair of Tier Three-to-Five quarterbacks will allow you to fill out the remainder of your lineup while also landing a quality RB3 or WR3 and a high-quality starting tight end. Here are the Tier Three-to-Four QBs you should target, along with analysis. Look for these guys in Rounds 7-12, and grab two:
8. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=28"]Jon Kitna[/URL] - There are some owners out there who will actually believe Kitna's 50-TD prediction. In plenty of drafts, however, he will fall, and there's not a better QB value if you can get Kitna somewhere in Rounds 7-10. He's an every-week starter in an extremely passer-friendly Mike Martz offense with [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4153"]Calvin Johnson[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2691"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=35"]Roy Williams[/URL][/URL][/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=411"]Mike Furrey[/URL], and the underrated [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=370"]Shaun McDonald[/URL]. Whichever running back the Lions go with ([URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2665"]Tatum Bell[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2659"]Kevin Jones[/URL], or [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3641"]Brian Calhoun[/URL]) all possess the ability to catch, then make things happen afterwards.
9. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3602"]Vince Young[/URL] - His receiving corps is unremarkable, but the Titans have encouraged VY to run more this season, which should translate to a large increase in his fantasy production. Young could even become Tennessee's go-to running option near the goal line if [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3637"]LenDale White[/URL] can't hang onto a starting job. His passing stats may be down near the 25-30th range, but Young's legs make him a top-15 option with upside for the top 10 in all formats. He's a worthwhile seventh-to-ninth round pick.
10. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=519"]Matt Hasselbeck[/URL] - The entire Seahawks offense experienced a bit of a down year in 2006 due to injuries. Hasselbeck struggled with a knee ailment for the second half of the season and had his top offensive weapon ([URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=555"]Shaun Alexander[/URL]) available for only ten games. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=481"]Darrell Jackson[/URL] was banged up, as usual, and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=538"]Bobby Engram[/URL]'s thyroid condition rendered him almost completely ineffective. But Mike Holmgren is still the same offensive genius he's always been and will get the 'Hawks turned around. Hasselbeck's surgery on his non-throwing shoulder shouldn't affect anything he does during the season, and he's a good bet to bounce back for a QB1 year. Hasselbeck normally can be had in Rounds 8-10.
11. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1813"]Philip Rivers[/URL] - Even if Norv Turner can't make the Chargers better as a team, the least he'll do is make Rivers better. Turner has a great history of helping quarterbacks reach their potential, and a more vertical offense featuring Rivers' arm along with [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3202"]Vincent Jackson[/URL] and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4221"]Craig Davis[/URL]' skill sets figures only to bring the best out of an emerging air attack. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=561"]LaDainian Tomlinson[/URL] is great, but he probably won't score 31 times again. Look for Rivers and company to pick up the slack. And look for Rivers in the ninth-to-eleventh rounds.
12. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1181"]Ben Roethlisberger[/URL] - Big Ben hopes to rebound after never seeming to find his footing following an offseason motorcycle crash and subsequent pre-Week 1 emergency appendectomy. Roethlisberger still has the talent and will be more equipped with receivers on the field thanks to new coordinator Bruce Arians' multi-wide sets. Arians' offense should get [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3145"]Heath Miller[/URL] more involved and spread out opposing defenses. Roethlisberger is again fully healthy and should capitalize. Considering how low he's going in drafts, Roethlisberger may be the best value among all QBs, even better than Kitna. You can often wait until Round 10 or even later to snare him.
13. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3608"]Jay Cutler[/URL] - Cutler may not have the services of [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1962"]Rod Smith[/URL] (hip surgery) for the first half of the season, but Denver did upgrade at running back by signing [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2271"]Travis Henry[/URL] after finding no consistency from 2006's rotation of Tatum and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3770"]Mike Bell[/URL]. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3653"]Brandon Marshall[/URL] is set to be an intermediate weapon with his good speed and T.O.-like body. Marshall is also likely to see frequent single coverage with [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1741"]Javon Walker[/URL] opposite him. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1501"]Brandon Stokley[/URL] will provide assistance from the slot. Cutler's big arm and athleticism make him an ideal fit for coach Mike Shanahan's attack, and he's as good a bet as any young QB to have a breakout season. Don't reach higher than the tenth, but jump if Cutler is available after that.
14. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1657"]Eli Manning[/URL] - Hate on Eli all you want, but he still has a laser-rocket arm just like his brother. And the Giants only upgraded his receiving corps with second-round pick [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2386"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4227"]Steve Smith[/URL][/URL][/URL] to go with a healthy returning [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3617"]Sinorice Moss[/URL]. New York lost a marquee tailback in [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=918"]Tiki Barber[/URL] but has groomed [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3146"]Brandon Jacobs[/URL] to take over the load. Manning is no bum (he's thrown 24 touchdowns in two seasons straight), and may be forced to pass even more with the Giants' defense looking as suspect as ever. Most owners are down on him, and Manning can be had in the latter half of 16- and 18-round drafts.
Tier Five Quarterbacks:
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3138"]Matt Leinart[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1478"]Byron Leftwich[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3137"]Jason Campbell[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=1744"]Brett Favre[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2398"]Jake Delhomme[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2780"]J.P. Losman[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=16"]Matt Schaub[/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3119"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=3147"]Alex Smith[/URL][/URL][/URL], [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=2570"]Jeff Garcia[/URL]
Tampabaybuccaneers.com
These quarterbacks should be available in Round Nine through the end of your draft. All are worth roster spots, but are more clear-cut QB2s. Leftwich and Favre have the most upside. Please don't reach for Leinart, who is being taken as high as the sixth and seventh rounds in many drafts. The new coach in Arizona, Ken Whisenhunt, is a conservative, run-heavy former Steelers coordinator who won't go downfield nearly as much as Dennis Green. As good as he will be in time and as electrifying as his receivers are, it would be a grave mistake to expect consistent QB1 value from Leinart as a sophomore. We have the southpaw penciled in for a fantasy backup-esque 19:13 TD:INT ratio.