Fezzik For November...

Heim

EOG Master
Fezzik | NFL ML - Saturday, Aug 24 2019 7:00PM
ML 270 IND (-125) Southpoint vs 269 CHI triple-dime bet

Analysis: Write up to follow.

The key handicap is that Chic's Nagy is a coach that simply does not care about preseason........
The key handicap was Walker versus Bray in 2H....but we move on.
 
Kick the man anytime you want but this preseason has been unbelieveable with that basic no think 6 coach preseason play/fade.

Now 12-0-1 ATS

The rest for this week
Sea -3
Min -6
Hou pk (fade of Dallas)
Nice post. He has been shutting his critics up (including ME).

I mentioned that he has a weekly stint on SiriusXM 82. 9pm EST mondays on Patrick Meagher's show "The Rap." He lays out his handicapping approach some.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Come on guys....we came to bury Fezzik not praise him...just a lucky hot streak. This shit ain't over.

Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!...

It ain't over now, 'cause when the goin' gets tough, the tough get goin'. Who's with me?
 
Fezzik

3*gom
ucla +3
Barring a push, probably either Fezzik or MistaFlava will be happy with the result of that game:

"A couple of fun facts for everyone. Cincinnati is 17-0 SU in their last 17 Home Openers and they have won those games by an average of 33.0 Points Per Game. WOW! UCLA on the other hand is 1-14 SU in their last 15 games played outside the Rose Bowl and have lost those games by an average of 16.0 points per game (thanks Phil Steele). UCLA comes into this game 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games versus non-conference opponents. Cincinnati got the job done on the road in 2018 and they should get the job done at home again in 2019 completing the two games sweep of UCLA. Having won 17 straight home openers is huge, the line is decent and the Bearcats should put on a show in this one.

Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 17-0 SU in their last 17 Home Openers.


Cincinnati 34, UCLA 17"

Complete writeup at:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1142740
 
Barring a push, probably either Fezzik or MistaFlava will be happy with the result of that game:

"A couple of fun facts for everyone. Cincinnati is 17-0 SU in their last 17 Home Openers and they have won those games by an average of 33.0 Points Per Game. WOW! UCLA on the other hand is 1-14 SU in their last 15 games played outside the Rose Bowl and have lost those games by an average of 16.0 points per game (thanks Phil Steele). UCLA comes into this game 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games versus non-conference opponents. Cincinnati got the job done on the road in 2018 and they should get the job done at home again in 2019 completing the two games sweep of UCLA. Having won 17 straight home openers is huge, the line is decent and the Bearcats should put on a show in this one.

Trend of the Game: Cincinnati is 17-0 SU in their last 17 Home Openers.


Cincinnati 34, UCLA 17"

Complete writeup at:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1142740
The line makes no sense. Last year at UCLA the game was UCLA -14. Lets say home field change at a super high 4 pts each way make this game UCLA -6 at Cincy. So there is a 9 point difference in these 2 teams???

cincy is very good but a second year for Chip Kelly will have improvement on offense.

I agree with Fenic based on the numbers.

BTW. Fenic has been white hot, maga hot over the last 11. 9-2!!!

I rip the SOB often, but when variance comes in to give him a little boost I'll post that as well. Consider myself the BBC of sports touting.
 
Fezzik | NFL ML - Thursday, Aug 29 2019 8:00PM
ML 118 GBP (-145) Westgate vs 117 KAN double-dime bet

Analysis: Off a last second loss, a little extra GB motivation, AND a better late QB rotation.......

Fezzik | NFL ML - Thursday, Aug 29 2019 7:00PM
ML 103 MIN (-145) Pinnacle vs 104 BUF double-dime bet

Analysis: HUGE edge for Min at 3rd string QB with Sloter.

AND Zimmer is a great preseason coach, 17-7 ATS, 3-0 this year.
 
The line makes no sense. Last year at UCLA the game was UCLA -14. Lets say home field change at a super high 4 pts each way make this game UCLA -6 at Cincy. So there is a 9 point difference in these 2 teams???


The Cinci -2.5 or -3 line "makes no sense"? Why? SBR says it opened at -4.5 which would tell us that the line-maker considers the 2 teams to be about equally good on a neutral field, with Cinci as the slightly better team by a hair. And that the line-maker does not consider UCLA to be the superior team (relative to Cinci) as they were last year when they were a 14 point home fav. The outright SU loss to Cinci +14 last year might have something to do with that. Perhaps the line-maker also thought that UCLA -14 number was wrong & missed the mark badly.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Laying 6 with Fla St and also hitting the ML (-235) are the kind of bets I expect guys with their caps turned backwards make two
minutes before kickoff unless you're a tout trying to stack + units.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The line makes no sense. Last year at UCLA the game was UCLA -14. Lets say home field change at a super high 4 pts each way make this game UCLA -6 at Cincy. So there is a 9 point difference in these 2 teams???

cincy is very good but a second year for Chip Kelly will have improvement on offense.

I agree with Fenic based on the numbers.

BTW. Fenic has been white hot, maga hot over the last 11. 9-2!!!

I rip the SOB often, but when variance comes in to give him a little boost I'll post that as well. Consider myself the BBC of sports touting.

The BBC of sports betting, funny.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Laying 6 with Fla St and also hitting the ML (-235) are the kind of bets I expect guys with their caps turned backwards make two
minutes before kickoff unless you're a tout trying to stack + units.
Willie Taggart falls to 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS in 13 games as head coach of the FSU Seminoles.
 
Fezzik | CFL Total - Monday, Sep 2 2019 4:30PM
693 EDM / 694 CAL UNDER 49.5 William Hilltriple-dime bet
25-9 final. Another easy under winner. Though not quite as easy as the 13-10 final on Fezzik's under 49.5 last week.

So Fezzik is now 9-1 in CFL this year, including a perfect 9-0 on full game wagers?

I wonder how he's done in previous CFL seasons.
 
"Buyer Beware: Sports Betting Touts In Era Of Widespread Legalization

Exploring transparency and the ontology of a tout: Is touting on a spectrum?"

"Steve Fezzik is a numbers whiz. A former actuary and Chess Candidate Master, he’s the first person to ever win the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest in back to back years (2008, 2009). Some have even called him “the best bettor in the world,” per his bio at PreGame.com."

"...At PreGame.com — where Fezzik and other touts market and sell their picks — you’ll see a headline titled “Fezzik’s Win Streaks” next to a menu of betting packages for sale from $169 to $875 (the latter discounted from $2,500).

I asked Fezzik how much someone needs to wager to have a chance at profiting after purchasing his packages. “My advice to all regarding daily plays is to only buy them if you are a big bettor,” Fezzik responded. “Paying $20 for a best bet and betting $100 on it is going to make it impossible to win long term.”

"...Below the main bar is a daily message now emphasizing Fezzik’s “6-1 Weekend.” You can also click on a tab to view Fezzik’s win/loss record. Not including money spent on betting packages, $100 bettors were down $136 for the most recently completed seasons (NFL, CFB, CBB, NBA) when I began researching for this story. At the present, the page indicates that Fezzik’s picks are up $2,075 over the last 30 days and that $100 bettors would be up $2,992. But again, that’s not taking into account money invested in Fezzik’s betting packages. The cheapest full-season package listed runs $875 after a 60% discount. While this is more effort at transparency than other touts give, there’s more to the story."

"“I do promote my win streaks, and for those questioning why I do so, the buyer has to make his decision based on all the info,” Fezzik said. “Many want to back handicappers on short term win streaks, following the hot hand. Like an investment fund on a short term run, we provide that info along with other info.”

"What isn’t so easy to find is a long-term record of Fezzik’s picks. You can find, at least, Fezzik’s records dating back to August 2015 on Pregame’s forums, as Pregame invited an impartial third party (“Comptrbob”) to track Fezzik’s picks. At the end of 2015, he was +4.62 units. 2016 was a solid year with Fezzik’s picks up 36.9 units at the end of the year. In 2017, they were -25.78 units, in 2018 +45.9, and as Fezzik did point out in our email exchange, his picks were -33.5 units for 2019 as of July 8th.

"Whether Pregame and Fezzik ought to get credit for tracking his year-to-date figures but relegating that information to forum posts, compared with banners for the “weekend streak,” well, that’s for you to decide. But to be fair, it is more than touts like Vegas Dave provide."

" “Note, some enjoy just being able to hit slightly over 50%,” Fezzik explained, “and that experience makes sports betting more enjoyable. They would rather pay a fee, hit 53%, and break even. Similar to the golfer that will get the best hybrid clubs to shoot 88 instead of 90.”

...With roughly 500 followers, Miller has an exponentially smaller congregation than Fezzik (@fezziksports), Dave, and Steam Capper, each of whom have over 50K followers on Twitter alone.

"...“Personally, I am tracked by Computer Bob, an outside independent monitor on all my plays,” he [Fezzik] added."


https://sportshandle.com/buyer-beware-sports-betting-touts/
 
Even Money podcast with Ross Tucker. Here are Fezzik's plays for week 1 from the show and the unit size.

** Green Bay +3
** Carolina +3
** 7 point teaser PHI -2.5 w/ SEA -2.5
* Baltimore -7
** 6.5 point teaser DAL -1 w/ ARI +8.5
*** PIT/NE under 50.5
** Houston +7
 
FEZZIK | NFL SIDE THU, 09/05/19 - 8:20 PM
451 GBP 4.0 (-110) William Hill vs 452 CHI

triple-dime bet
Analysis:
Write up to follow.


GB good for 3* at +4 or +3.5
 

Heim

EOG Master
Moreover, BYU was a two unit loss that didn't get sent to BLAP but is in the official archive. Should that not count?
 
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