Fezzik GOY Part III
- Thread starter Heim
- Start date
Murphy’s Best
EOG Dedicated
I’ll play over 219.5…
you break even.Murphy’s Best
EOG Dedicated
80 point 1st quarter! Actually 78 …
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Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Steve crushed mlb today
Lost nba 3* but murdered mlb
Lost nba 3* but murdered mlb
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Heim
EOG Master
He's all about the CLV. Some think he knows something getting a number or price that never re-appears.
He got CLV yesterday with the INDY total, did it win?
kane
EOG master
Every time he plays a FF Under it seems like he gets a number that's not WA, if the WA total is 3.5, he gets a 4, if it's 4, he finds a 4.5. Not saying he doesn't get the number he releases, I just don't know how WA those numbers are, I'm sure the majority of his clients have trouble getting the same number he gets. Last night he had Pit/Ari FF Under 4, he played it at 3:45 AM and didn't even list the book. I guess if you're awake at that time and have access to the one book he used, you're okay, LOL
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
This is exactly why computer Bob is paid to track fezzik.
Oops
Sorry
Bob doing this out of his own time. He should be paid but rj is a cheap fk
Heim
EOG Master
You could have got it for free from 'Hoops' Peterson last night and guest.
Murphy’s Best
EOG Dedicated
Stars ⭐️ not looking good after 1 period…
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
14-1 run
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:41am) Minn/TB UNDER 8 [0-5] MLB 2 W 2
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:42am) Cle +130 [7-4] MLB 2 W 2.6
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:43am) Phil -158 [PPD] MLB 2 T 0
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:44am) CWS F5 +175 [5-3] MLB 2 W 3.5
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:45am) Pit +112 [10-1] MLB 2 W 2.24
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:46am) Pit/AZ F5 UNDER 4 [3-0] MLB 2 W 2
5/28/25 Wednesday (2/11/25 6:22am) PROP OKC to win West +100 [Yes, vs Twolves 4-1] NBA 3 W 3
YTD -27.19u
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:41am) Minn/TB UNDER 8 [0-5] MLB 2 W 2
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:42am) Cle +130 [7-4] MLB 2 W 2.6
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:43am) Phil -158 [PPD] MLB 2 T 0
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:44am) CWS F5 +175 [5-3] MLB 2 W 3.5
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:45am) Pit +112 [10-1] MLB 2 W 2.24
5/28/25 Wednesday (5/28/25 3:46am) Pit/AZ F5 UNDER 4 [3-0] MLB 2 W 2
5/28/25 Wednesday (2/11/25 6:22am) PROP OKC to win West +100 [Yes, vs Twolves 4-1] NBA 3 W 3
YTD -27.19u
andyfezzik
EOG Addicted
Hockey betting is exploitable due to its lower market efficiency compared to major sports like football or basketball. Oddsmakers often overlook niche factors like player fatigue, line matchups, or goaltender form, creating mispriced odds for sharp bettors. The sport's growing popularity, fueled by expanding NHL viewership and legal sports betting, positions it as the next big thing. With less public money driving lines, informed bettors can capitalize on undervalued teams and props, making hockey a prime opportunity for profit in 2025 and the years to come. It's the next big thing.
Heim
EOG Master
Did you cut and paste this from some generic hockey tout site? Geez.
Oddsmakers overlook wat? This is playoff time, a ton of data to deal a accurate price.
This is unlike NBA series prices, NHL is a coin-flip in most series. Informed bettors have a chance, that doesn't include Steve.
kane
EOG master
During the grind of a long regular season what you posted makes sense. But you can toss most of this stuff out in the playoffs. If a tout is putting out his GOY, he should find the perfect spot during the season incorporating some of the things you posted, but a GOY in the playoffs doesn't make sense. I assume he figured Dallas was at home, down 3-1 in a must win game, against a team that didn't need the win, so he fired. I doubt he gave the game much thought beyond taking the home team in a must win. Also, as Heim said, the oddsmakers aren't overlooking anything in the playoffs, whatever edge a Capper can find would be minimal and certainly not worthy of a GOY
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Well +101 is an underdog for marketing purposes.
This actually is news since Steve became the minus any number king
Heim
EOG Master
If you remember his selections on his forum, he preferred bad teams with the points in the NFL. Now to accumulate units with a better likelihood of a win he's changed his entire approach. 'Sell out' is a phrase thrown out too regularly, but Steve is truly a sell out.
i got buried over there on that denver pick ..that story sounded so good why this why that
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
I doubt Steve does the marketing
RJ tells Steve he needs a 3* play for sales.
Steve gives him game.
Marketing team scrolls through his plays and trends to find the hook
Rinse and repeat
Heim
EOG Master
I agree, the marketing is all RJ. Nobody that bets hockey regularly would make a NHL playoff game a GOY.
RJ: You like anyone in the hockey game tonight.
Fezzik: Yep some rumblings about the Stars with their backs to the wall
RJ: Ok, GOY
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
100% right heim
howid
EOG Dedicated
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Steve was such a short sighted mental midget when he was jamming stale number parlay cards at 1am in the morning at south point after being told to stop.
He probably could be a paid sponsor and bet at the counter there yet.
Nope see an edge and pounce.
Yet keep quoting south point lines for his service as if he bets there
He probably could be a paid sponsor and bet at the counter there yet.
Nope see an edge and pounce.
Yet keep quoting south point lines for his service as if he bets there
Sportsrmylife
EOG Master
Heim
EOG Master
I'm not sure what's a bigger waste of a service, seeing a limited prop or Fezzik releasing anything full game?
I doubt if Fezzik does serious modelling of these, but NRFI, F3 and F5 are quite different.
NRFI boils down to first 5 or 6 hitters' run production vs starting pitchers.
F3 Unders pretty much rely on capping the first trip thru the rotation, limiting walks and base hits that prevent a deep 2nd trip thru the rotation that leads to the runs.
F5 Unders generally run thru the lineup at least twice, generally need starters to go the 5 innings. No big, crooked numbers.
NRFI boils down to first 5 or 6 hitters' run production vs starting pitchers.
F3 Unders pretty much rely on capping the first trip thru the rotation, limiting walks and base hits that prevent a deep 2nd trip thru the rotation that leads to the runs.
F5 Unders generally run thru the lineup at least twice, generally need starters to go the 5 innings. No big, crooked numbers.
Heim
EOG Master
Look at the distribution and why most books don't offer F3. The batting average first time thru a lineup is on or about .194, 2nd time, .234, then .264 as you go up the prop scale.
He may not model but he's smart enough to know you can't make the vig high enough especially with low totals which he seems to zero in on early morning.
He may not model but he's smart enough to know you can't make the vig high enough especially with low totals which he seems to zero in on early morning.