Fezzik | NFL Prop - Sunday, Feb 12 2023 6:30PM
KC Mahomes O
(-115)DraftKings 101 KAN vs 102 PHI
double-dime bet
Analysis: 2* Play
KC Mahomes Pass Yards OVER 288 -115
Draft Kings has 287.5, FanDuel 288.5, many other books have this same number(s).
This play is good up to 290.5
I was hoping to wait until 3pm PST today to give out any plays, but this was going to get hit before that...... so I had to give it out
*****
I will outline EVERY bet I personally make; many of these will not be available, but look for them, and Note this is what I have bet for myself:
A team miss 2 fgs?
-500
NO
Both teams 35 fg
-130
NO
More Points 2h
-145
2h
More Tds than fg
-330
Tds
KC team 2h OV 12
-125
KC OV 12
Sanders 1st td v Pacheco
-115
Sanders
Sanders 1st td vs. Mckinon
-160
Sanders
Mahomes OV 37.5 att
105
Mahomes
Mah OV 287.5
-110
Mahomes
Opening KO t back
155
NO tb
A start QB neg yds
-750
NO
SC 1st 3 min
-550
NO
2h-.5 -110 vs. 1h
-112
2h
short TD un 1.5
-155
UN 1.5
1h UN 25-119
-119
UN 25
Philly spread
1.5
KC spread
2.5
LEAN KC at current number...
Reminder:
DO NOT TEASE the Super Bowl
LOOK to AVOID all "needle in haystack" bets like exact final score, exact number of points scored, who will score 1st Td, etc.
Focus on bets with just 2 outcomes, bet OV/UN, Yes/No
In general, typically if there is value it is betting on the bigger vig side of a prop bet.
By example, if we get NO OT -800 that's good. YES Otime 6-1 is TERRIBLE
Adding..
2* T. Kelce (KC) Over 6.5 Recs -40. (I like ALL the Kelce props, including Yes Kelce TD, and Kelce over yardage, but this is my favorite of all of them........).
2* D. Goedert (PHI) Over 4.5 Recs -25.
2* M. Sanders (PHI) o12.5 Rush Att -35. (LOVE all the Sanders rush props over. STRONG LEAN: Sanders UNDER 1.5 CATCHES -180.).
2* NO SCORE in 1st 6 minutes -40 (NO Score 5.5 minutes -160 is even better........ @ SP).
Adding..
3* 4Q scoring -175 higher than 1Q. good up to -190 for 3*.
List of personal 'Bonus' props;
Any team miss 2 fgs? NO -500
Both teams 35 fg Bet NO -130
More Points 2h -145
More Tds than fg -330
KC team 2h OV 12 team points -125
Sanders 1st td v Pacheco -115
Sanders 1st td vs. Mckinon -160
Mahomes OV 37.5 pass attempts 105
Mah OV 287.5 pass yds -110
Opening KO t back bet NO +155
A start QB has neg rush yds, bet NO -750
SC 1st 3 min, bet NO -550
2h-.5 -110 vs. 1h -112
short TD un 1.5 -155
1h UN 25-119 -119
Philly +1.5
KC +2.5
Team to score last wins -200
Final Score of Game lands EVEN +130
Final score of Game lands ODD -110
Coinflip TAILS -100
Phil RB Boston Scott Long run UN 6.5 -100
More 1st downs EAGLES -110
Phil WR Quez Watkins UN 13.5 -110
KC Noah Gray UN 11.5 pass yds -110
Goedert OVER 4.5 Catches -120
Sanders OVER 12.5 rush attempts -110
Punts UNDER 7.5 -140
No score in 1st 5:30 of game -160
KELCE OV 6.5 catches -140
Adding..
2* PHI Total Punts Under 3.5 +EV
2* K. Toney (KC) Over 27.5 Rec Yds -130
'Bonus' Props;
K. Toney (KC) Over 2.5 Recs -50
NO Overtime -900
William Hill Parlay Cards:
KC STACK, 4 team parlay card 12/1
Kc 1.5/KC last pos/KC sc last 1h/Kc 1st 20 yd gain
Card selection is 2 6 8 12
Philly Stack, 4 team parlay card
Phi -1.5/Phi last poss/Phi scor last 1h/Ph 1st 20 yr gn 12/1
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