FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Flamingo kid

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#1
I'll post picks for the games here, i'll use the 'widely accepted' line (i'll probably use Pinnacle), but i would urge you to shop around and get the best price for yourself if you do happen to wager responsibly on the games.

I might post 5 picks one week and 0 the next. I'm just going to go on what i like. Hopefully i'll be able to have some writeups too.


I favor the Jets, Giants and San Diego as teams i 'root for' and my dislike of New England sports is well documented. However, this 'rooting bias' will not come into play with these picks. I understand that you want to win (duh, winning) and you could care less who i'm rooting for in my own private home. If a NY or SD team is a good pick against, i'll pick against them. Same thing with New England, i'll select them if i think they're a good bet.

I think the last time i released picks on NFL games at EOG i was 1 or 2 games over .500 at the end of the year. Not good enough to overcome the juice, but in 'holding our own' mode. Lets try and do better this season.


Have a wonderful 2011 NFL season gents.


Week 1.

I havent seen too much preseason action and i'm not even sure that what you see in the preseason matters at all in selecting games, so i'm just going to wing it for week 1 and see what sticks. The one thing that i know about week 1 is that oddsmakers are not likely to make a team a 14 or 17 point favorite just because they 'dont know enough' yet about the teams and how they're expected to play. The biggest favorites are the Texans and the Chargers. The Chargers are a historically slow starting team, so even though they're probably going to win, i can't in good faith lay 9 points with them in week 1. So, i'm going to pass their event.

As far as the other game goes, the Texans might be a good pick laying 9 points. This might be a 41-0 affair and because the Colts are the Colts, oddsmakers are unlikely to make the Colts a 17 point Dog (for example). Can Kerry Collins really know enough to keep this one close? I'm thinking not. So ,i'm going to lay the 9 points and try and walk to the windows. This seems like a MOTO selection (master of the Obvious) but sometimes the most obvious selections are the easiest. I'm not going to get cute here, a winner is a winner. If the Colts can keep this one close with a backup QB who just came to the team recently, than i'll re-evaluate this going forward.

I'm also going to go with the Rams +4.5 There's a lot of hype surrounding Philly in the offseason and i think that 'hype' is factored into this line. Hype doesnt win games, and i think the Rams will be ready for this one. I'm going to grab the points with the home dog here, i'm going to force Philly to be the real deal on the field before i annoint them SB champs before even 1 game is played.

Oakland +3 at Denver. Too much 'controversy' with Denver and their QB position, i'll go with the Raiduzz and take the points in this road rivalry game. Oakland kind of owned Denver last year, i don't see any reason why that won't continue.

Three selections for opening week:

Texans -9
Rams +4.5
Raiders +3
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#2
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Rams down to +4.....you gotta be feeling on top of the world knowing you're locked in at 4.5, right? 91023i2ndw;l
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#4
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

How about moving all the 30 for 30 horse selections threads to the horse racing forum....or, is it just me that gets buried?
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#9
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Week two:

Jags +9 at Jets

The Jags historically play well vs the Jets and 9 is a lot of points. Jets coming off an emotional win on 9/11 at home in a game they probably should have lost. The Jets are fairly unreliable when laying a lot of points, this spread just seems too high.

Titans +5.5 vs Ravens.

Overreaaction to Ravens domination of Steelers, give me the 0-1 home team plus the handful vs the 1-0 road team. Possible 'letdown' for the Ravens here off big rivalry opening day win.

Seahawks +14.5 vs Steelers

This is probably a throw away game, but i want to see the Steelers show SOMETHING (anything) before laying this kind of number. 14.5? Really? Are the Seahawks this bad? This seems like a square play by me, but i can't resist.

Browns -1.5 vs Colts.

Indy could be the worst team in the league without Manning, this could be a freebie, Browns big.

Eagles -1.5 vs Atlanta

Normally, i'd go with the decent home team who's 0-1 vs the 1-0 team, but this is Michael Vick in Atlanta, he might just 'go off' and i think his teammates will have his back in this one and play lights out on national tv. Should be an exciting game.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#10
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

2-3 today.

Current season's record:

4-4

Sorry guys, bad beat on the Eagles, if Vick doesnt get hurt, we win easy. We probably still win if the guy holds the ball on 4th down with under a minute to play.

I'll try and do better next time.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#11
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Packers -3.5 vs Chicago

Bears had the 'win one for the gipper' last week after the death of Urlacher's mom and they didnt really care all that much and mailed it in and got blown out. THat's alarming to me, i thought they would want to win this one for Brian but maybe they're just not that good. I'll take the champs and lay the small amount.

Browns -1 vs Miami

Fins no good so far this year, not sure why the Browns arent favored by more.

Colts +10.5 vs Pitt

This looks too easy for Pitt, doesnt it? That's why i'm going with the down and out Colts. Maybe Collins practicing another week with the first team will show drastic improvement. I'm not convinced these are the 'steelers of old that we know and love' . Biting with Rover here, this a lot of points for a home team on national tv who has something to prove.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#13
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Bills -3 at Cincinatti

Bills just played two rockem sockem high scoring affairs and seem to have a bunch of firepower. Cincinatti, not so much. Lets ride the Bills gravy train till it crashes.

Vikings -1 at Chiefs.

SD made the Chiefs look like a competitive team, but the Chiefs were the laughing stock of the NFL in their first 2 games. If i can have the other guys and not have to lay double digits, i'm biting.

Giants -1 at Zona.

G men destroyed Philly and looked like a real team doing so. NYG might have turned the corner and they historically do well in the desert.

Miami +9 at SD.

If the Chargers couldnt beat the Chiefs by 9, i'm not sure they can beat anybody by 9. Grabbing the fish and the large number here.

Raiders +4.5 vs New England.

Raiders were super impressive visually vs NYJ. There's no proof the Raiders arent one of the best teams in the AFC, they might be 'for real'. There was a good 'positive' energy in the stadium for this game, Raiders played incredibly hard and passionate, these arent the Raiders you've known for the past few years, this team is good.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#15
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Rough day, my only win was a ref aided win, tough loss in Cincy and got beat with Miami by 1 point.

On to next week.

Current season record.

7-8-1
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#16
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Vikings -1 vs Cardinals.

Vikes desperately need a win and played well in their previous home game vs an upstart Lion team and lost to a team known for big comebacks. Vikings are due.

Eagles -1.5 vs Buffalo

Bills got 'run over' by Cincinatti late in the game, maybe the Bills have peaked. This is almost a must win for the Eagles, expect the birds to be fired up for this one, they cant afford another loss.

Raiders +6 vs Texans.

Raiders let me down last week, i'm not sure why, but sometimes teams just lay flat for New England and don't bring their best game. Expect the Raiders to be back to full power this week, i think they're pretty decent and 6 is a lot. Im biting.

Seattle +9.5 vs NYG

This is a lot of points and the Giants are famous for playing down to the competition. Seattle was disasterous vs Pitt, but then turned it around with 2 spirited games. Maybe the Hawks can keep this one close.

Denver +4 vs SD.

Chargers are 3-1 but they've beat (and struggled) with 3 bad teams. Not sure they oughta be favored by 4 on the road in a division rivalry game.

Chicago +6 at Detroit

Despite being 4-0, the Lions last 2 games have been alarming. They've gotten down by boatloads of points and made miracle comebacks 2 weeks in a row. As good as they are coming back to win, you have to ask yourself what's inherently wrong with this team that they're letting the bad guys get such big leads. Another big spread, i'll try the points and hope the monsters of the midway can keep this one close.
 
#17
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

nice thread and good writeups!

however, that eagles front 7 is gonna get run over by fred jackson
 

Flamingo kid

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#18
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

nice thread and good writeups!

however, that eagles front 7 is gonna get run over by fred jackson
.

Thank you Tegs.

Seems like my opening picks got the best of the spread in all cases except Seattle, where we lost half pt. Everything else looks gravy according to current pinnacle lines.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#20
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Redskins +1 vs Eagles

Philly has been as bad as you could be so far this year. Why shouldn't this continue?

SF +4 at Lions.

Lions riding wave of momentum these days, they're coming off an adrenaline fueled win on MNF the other night, their previous two games saw them make huge comebacks but you have to ask, did the Lions comeback or did the other team hit the wall?

Cowboys +7 at New England.

Figures to be high scoring affair, Dallas is probably better than their record shows, maybe Rex can give rob some tips on how to beat these guys.

Miami + 7 vs Jets

Something is wrong with the NYJ and I'm not sure what. Taking the points until the J E T S jets jets jets can turn the ship around, the spread is too high for a team playing this poorly.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#22
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Carolina -1.5 vs Washington.

Panthers have been very competitive this season losing a lot of close games. This is one game they could win. I think they're probably better than their record indicates.

Chiefs +3.5 vs Raiders.

Two emotional wins since their owner's death, this might be a spot for a letdown.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#23
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Carolina -1.5 vs Washington.

Panthers have been very competitive this season losing a lot of close games. This is one game they could win. I think they're probably better than their record indicates.

Chiefs +3.5 vs Raiders.

Two emotional wins since their owner's death, this might be a spot for a letdown.

2-0 today

Overall season record

14-13-1
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#24
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Miami +10 at NYG

Jints quite often play down to the competition at home as huge favorites.

Denver +3 vs Detroit

Have the Lions run out of gas a bit?

Patriots -3 at Pitt

O/U in the 50's ill take a shot laying a FG here.

Dallas + 3.5 at Pha

I think Dallas is better than record shows, grab the kick and the hook here, boys will be fired up for this one.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#26
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

No picks last week, took the week off, didnt like anything really. Back to the wars!

Oakland +7 vs SD (Thursday night)

Raiders are a hot mess right now, but San Diego is coming off a game where they had an offensive outburst and scored a ton of points. They're back in a few days and i have to imagine the offensive players are tired from running up and down the field. The Raiders are in 'transition' period with a new QB learning the ropes, but they're still a better team than their last few games indicate. I'm thinking they'll right the ship and be competitive here...7 seems like a lot, SD isnt really good enough to blow out a decent team.

Jags -3 at Colts.

I guess the Jags must be batshit bad if they're only favored by 3 vs the NFL's most lowly team but i'm going to bite. I think the Colts are destined to go 0 and 16, i can't imagine the Jags are going to get picked off by a team who's quit on the year.

Miami -4 vs Washington.

This seems like an 'obvious' grab to take the points...that's why i'm going with the other side. Fins playing great these days despite having a horrible record. They dismantled a decent Chief team and almost beat a first place Giant team the week before. Miami might be much and improved.

Bears -2.5 vs Lions

Bears looked very good the other night vs Philly while the Lions were resting and laughing about their 'facile' win vs the Broncos. Lions might think they're better than they are and the Bears could be 'coming on'. Going with the team who's coming off a sharp win.

Jets -1 vs New England.

Jets seem to be heading in the right direction while New England is trying for their 3rd loss in a row. Jets will be fired up for this one. Expect Sanchez to outplay Brady and get the W.

Minny +13 vs GB

Pack has only won 2 games this year by more than 13 points and have given up a boatload of pts in the last few weeks. Revenge on the road for Minny here, they kept it close the last time these two teams played, here's hoping they can keep it close again.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#27
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Wow, they're off and you lose. Im chalking up the Vikings pick as a loss. Two seconds out of the starting gate, i'm a loser.

Oh well.

Current Record 19-17-1
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#28
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Miami -1 vs Buffalo

Bills look bad and Miami looks good.....seems easy. I'm not going to make this harder than it needs to be. KISS.

Redskins +9 Vs Cowboys.

Dallas looked embarrassingly bad vs a bad Philly team recently and then beat a Buffalo team who looks like they're out of gas. Lets see Dallas do this again, spread seems too high.

I might add to this before next Sunday. Stay tuned.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#29
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

One more game for now.

Chicago -3.5 vs SD

Bolts played 3 games in 11 days and have a TON of injuries and now have to travel to Chicago to play a very hot team.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#30
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Miami -1 vs Buffalo

Bills look bad and Miami looks good.....seems easy. I'm not going to make this harder than it needs to be. KISS.

Redskins +9 Vs Cowboys.

Dallas looked embarrassingly bad vs a bad Philly team recently and then beat a Buffalo team who looks like they're out of gas. Lets see Dallas do this again, spread seems too high.

I might add to this before next Sunday. Stay tuned.
Skins now +7.5 on Pinny....of course, you're locked in at 9!oij213490
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#31
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Two More picks for Sunday.

Eagles +5.5 vs Giants.

I waited on this one because i knew that once Vick was announced as doubtful, the 'sharps' would pound the G men. This is a rivalry game, revenge on the road spot for Philly, this number is way too high. Eagles have great chance to win outright, not sure why they're getting so many pts. Im grabbing it.

Oakland +1 at Minny.

I think the Raiders have turned the corner with Palmer getting used to running the show. This is one of those games where a month from now you'll look back and say "i cant believe the RAIDERS were getting points vs the Vikings"

So, a total recap for Sunday, this is what we have so far. (writeups in posts 28 and 29)

Miami -1
Skins +9
Bears -3.5
Eagles +5.5
Raiders +1

Current YTD 19-17-1
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#36
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Two More picks for Sunday.

Eagles +5.5 vs Giants.

I waited on this one because i knew that once Vick was announced as doubtful, the 'sharps' would pound the G men. This is a rivalry game, revenge on the road spot for Philly, this number is way too high. Eagles have great chance to win outright, not sure why they're getting so many pts. Im grabbing it.

Oakland +1 at Minny.

I think the Raiders have turned the corner with Palmer getting used to running the show. This is one of those games where a month from now you'll look back and say "i cant believe the RAIDERS were getting points vs the Vikings"

So, a total recap for Sunday, this is what we have so far. (writeups in posts 28 and 29)

Miami -1
Skins +9
Bears -3.5
Eagles +5.5
Raiders +1

Current YTD 19-17-1

:eye:
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
#40
Re: FK's 2011 NFL regular season selections thread.

Week 12

Jets -9 vs Bills.

Until the Bills can actually not lose a game by 40 pts, i'm just going to assume they've quit on the season and fade them. I'm going to make them beat me.

Panthers -3.5 vs Colts.

Seems like 0-16 is really a possibility, who am i to stand in their way?

Bears +4 vs Raiders.

Seems easy right? No Cutler, but they still have a pretty good team last i checked and the key is that the new QB has all week to practice with the first team. I don't see any problems. If Vince Young can come into the Meadowlands and look like the VY of old, i dont see why the Bears backup can't do the same thing.

Eagles +3 vs Patriots

I know this might sound silly, but i think the Eagles are better. I'm not sold on New England being a 'great' team. Hopefully Philly will 'show up' for a change .

Broncos +6 vs Chargers.

Not sure why Denver is the dog here...they should be 3 pt favorites. They have Tebow and the Chargers Don't. Ok, all kidding aside, the Chargers have more injures than you could imagine, and they've kind of 'picked on' Denver a lot over the last few years. Attention to oddsmakers, these are NOT the Tomlinson/Merriman Chargers of 5 years ago. This is a bad team right now, i'm not sure how they're going to beat anyone, much less beat them by 7 or more. This seems easy.
 
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