Flamingo kid
Everybody's hands go UP!
I'll post picks for the games here, i'll use the 'widely accepted' line (i'll probably use Pinnacle), but i would urge you to shop around and get the best price for yourself if you do happen to wager responsibly on the games.
I might post 5 picks one week and 0 the next. I'm just going to go on what i like. Hopefully i'll be able to have some writeups too.
I favor the Jets, Giants and San Diego as teams i 'root for' and my dislike of New England sports is well documented. However, this 'rooting bias' will not come into play with these picks. I understand that you want to win (duh, winning) and you could care less who i'm rooting for in my own private home. If a NY or SD team is a good pick against, i'll pick against them. Same thing with New England, i'll select them if i think they're a good bet.
I think the last time i released picks on NFL games at EOG i was 1 or 2 games over .500 at the end of the year. Not good enough to overcome the juice, but in 'holding our own' mode. Lets try and do better this season.
Have a wonderful 2011 NFL season gents.
Week 1.
I havent seen too much preseason action and i'm not even sure that what you see in the preseason matters at all in selecting games, so i'm just going to wing it for week 1 and see what sticks. The one thing that i know about week 1 is that oddsmakers are not likely to make a team a 14 or 17 point favorite just because they 'dont know enough' yet about the teams and how they're expected to play. The biggest favorites are the Texans and the Chargers. The Chargers are a historically slow starting team, so even though they're probably going to win, i can't in good faith lay 9 points with them in week 1. So, i'm going to pass their event.
As far as the other game goes, the Texans might be a good pick laying 9 points. This might be a 41-0 affair and because the Colts are the Colts, oddsmakers are unlikely to make the Colts a 17 point Dog (for example). Can Kerry Collins really know enough to keep this one close? I'm thinking not. So ,i'm going to lay the 9 points and try and walk to the windows. This seems like a MOTO selection (master of the Obvious) but sometimes the most obvious selections are the easiest. I'm not going to get cute here, a winner is a winner. If the Colts can keep this one close with a backup QB who just came to the team recently, than i'll re-evaluate this going forward.
I'm also going to go with the Rams +4.5 There's a lot of hype surrounding Philly in the offseason and i think that 'hype' is factored into this line. Hype doesnt win games, and i think the Rams will be ready for this one. I'm going to grab the points with the home dog here, i'm going to force Philly to be the real deal on the field before i annoint them SB champs before even 1 game is played.
Oakland +3 at Denver. Too much 'controversy' with Denver and their QB position, i'll go with the Raiduzz and take the points in this road rivalry game. Oakland kind of owned Denver last year, i don't see any reason why that won't continue.
Three selections for opening week:
Texans -9
Rams +4.5
Raiders +3
I might post 5 picks one week and 0 the next. I'm just going to go on what i like. Hopefully i'll be able to have some writeups too.
I favor the Jets, Giants and San Diego as teams i 'root for' and my dislike of New England sports is well documented. However, this 'rooting bias' will not come into play with these picks. I understand that you want to win (duh, winning) and you could care less who i'm rooting for in my own private home. If a NY or SD team is a good pick against, i'll pick against them. Same thing with New England, i'll select them if i think they're a good bet.
I think the last time i released picks on NFL games at EOG i was 1 or 2 games over .500 at the end of the year. Not good enough to overcome the juice, but in 'holding our own' mode. Lets try and do better this season.
Have a wonderful 2011 NFL season gents.
Week 1.
I havent seen too much preseason action and i'm not even sure that what you see in the preseason matters at all in selecting games, so i'm just going to wing it for week 1 and see what sticks. The one thing that i know about week 1 is that oddsmakers are not likely to make a team a 14 or 17 point favorite just because they 'dont know enough' yet about the teams and how they're expected to play. The biggest favorites are the Texans and the Chargers. The Chargers are a historically slow starting team, so even though they're probably going to win, i can't in good faith lay 9 points with them in week 1. So, i'm going to pass their event.
As far as the other game goes, the Texans might be a good pick laying 9 points. This might be a 41-0 affair and because the Colts are the Colts, oddsmakers are unlikely to make the Colts a 17 point Dog (for example). Can Kerry Collins really know enough to keep this one close? I'm thinking not. So ,i'm going to lay the 9 points and try and walk to the windows. This seems like a MOTO selection (master of the Obvious) but sometimes the most obvious selections are the easiest. I'm not going to get cute here, a winner is a winner. If the Colts can keep this one close with a backup QB who just came to the team recently, than i'll re-evaluate this going forward.
I'm also going to go with the Rams +4.5 There's a lot of hype surrounding Philly in the offseason and i think that 'hype' is factored into this line. Hype doesnt win games, and i think the Rams will be ready for this one. I'm going to grab the points with the home dog here, i'm going to force Philly to be the real deal on the field before i annoint them SB champs before even 1 game is played.
Oakland +3 at Denver. Too much 'controversy' with Denver and their QB position, i'll go with the Raiduzz and take the points in this road rivalry game. Oakland kind of owned Denver last year, i don't see any reason why that won't continue.
Three selections for opening week:
Texans -9
Rams +4.5
Raiders +3