FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

dirty

EOG Master
#1
First Numbers out.....

-8.5 -117


If that opens up at that number everywhere, I will Make this My strongest play of the year... This Number is Like stealing... HOLY COW!!!! :houra:houra:houra:houra
 

dirty

EOG Master
#5
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

UF is the best team in the nation by a good margin right now... tonite that POS team frustrated them and slowed it down first half... and UF only scored 41... at the half they made adjustments and scored 71 in the 2nd half and pulled the starters early... they could have scored 90 in the 2nd half.
 

UofM2003

EOG Addicted
#6
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

I agree with you Dirty. And I know in every other post about UF I say this, but Donovan has that team peaking at the right time. When they are playing like this, I don't think a team like purdue has a shot in hell of staying within 8-9 points...
 

dirty

EOG Master
#7
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

agreed, especially when every team in the SEC save South Carolina, Auburn, Alabama and Maybe GA was better than them
 

UofM2003

EOG Addicted
#8
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Yep. They also lost by 18 and 11 to ohio state. I can't see how playing against florida will be any easier...
 
#9
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

I would buy it to -7 now and buy the other way at tip off. Might get a 5 1/2 point middle.
 

UofM2003

EOG Addicted
#13
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Dirty, I think most places opened up at -10, -10.5...

what do you think? I think Florida still covers...
 

Culver

EOG Veteran
#17
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

You guys are delusional about Florida. They shouldn't even be the Number 1 overall seed. From Mike Greenfield:



<TABLE bgColor=#f3f3f3><TBODY><TR bgColor=#cebdb3><TD>
Team
</TD><TD>
Rating
</TD><TD>
v. Top 25
</TD><TD>
v. 26-50
</TD><TD>
v. 51-100
</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD width=170>1. Ohio St (31-3)</TD><TD>96.3</TD><TD>5-3</TD><TD>5-0</TD><TD>6-0</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>2. North Carolina (29-6)</TD><TD>93.7</TD><TD>7-1</TD><TD>7-3</TD><TD>5-2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>3. Wisconsin (29-5)</TD><TD>93.2</TD><TD>5-3</TD><TD>6-1</TD><TD>4-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>4. Florida (29-5)</TD><TD>93.1</TD><TD>4-2</TD><TD>7-2</TD><TD>7-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>5. Kansas (30-4)</TD><TD>92.6</TD><TD>3-1</TD><TD>5-0</TD><TD>8-3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>6. Georgetown (27-6)</TD><TD>92.1</TD><TD>5-3</TD><TD>5-1</TD><TD>4-2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>7. UCLA (26-5)</TD><TD>92.0</TD><TD>7-1</TD><TD>4-1</TD><TD>6-3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>8. Memphis (30-3)</TD><TD>91.6</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>3-0</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>9. Pittsburgh (28-7)</TD><TD>90.3</TD><TD>2-4</TD><TD>5-2</TD><TD>8-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>10. Texas AM (26-6)</TD><TD>90.1</TD><TD>3-2</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>8-4</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE bgColor=#f3f3f3><TBODY><TR bgColor=#cebdb3><TD>
Team
</TD><TD>
Rating
</TD><TD>
v. Top 25
</TD><TD>
v. 26-50
</TD><TD>
v. 51-100
</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD width=170>11. Maryland (25-8)</TD><TD>89.5</TD><TD>5-1</TD><TD>6-5</TD><TD>4-0</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>12. Oregon (26-7)</TD><TD>89.4</TD><TD>6-2</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>5-3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>13. Southern Ill (26-6)</TD><TD>89.3</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>4-3</TD><TD>11-2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>14. Washington St (26-7)</TD><TD>88.8</TD><TD>2-4</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>9-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>15. Arizona (20-10)</TD><TD>88.3</TD><TD>4-7</TD><TD>1-3</TD><TD>8-0</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>16. Kentucky (21-11)</TD><TD>88.1</TD><TD>2-6</TD><TD>4-4</TD><TD>9-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>17. Notre Dame (24-7)</TD><TD>88.0</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>3-2</TD><TD>5-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>18. UNLV (27-6)</TD><TD>87.9</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>3-2</TD><TD>5-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>19. Michigan St (23-11)</TD><TD>87.9</TD><TD>2-5</TD><TD>4-4</TD><TD>4-2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>20. Winthrop (24-4)</TD><TD>87.9</TD><TD>0-4</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>2-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE bgColor=#f3f3f3><TBODY><TR bgColor=#cebdb3><TD>
Team
</TD><TD>
Rating
</TD><TD>
v. Top 25
</TD><TD>
v. 26-50
</TD><TD>
v. 51-100
</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD width=170>21. Texas (24-9)</TD><TD>87.6</TD><TD>1-5</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>9-2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>22. Tennessee (22-10)</TD><TD>87.6</TD><TD>4-4</TD><TD>5-2</TD><TD>4-4</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>23. Duke (22-11)</TD><TD>87.6</TD><TD>1-4</TD><TD>8-6</TD><TD>5-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>24. Louisville (23-9)</TD><TD>87.6</TD><TD>1-5</TD><TD>2-2</TD><TD>6-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>25. Nevada (27-4)</TD><TD>87.5</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>11-3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>26. Indiana (21-10)</TD><TD>87.3</TD><TD>3-4</TD><TD>2-4</TD><TD>4-2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>27. Villanova (21-10)</TD><TD>87.1</TD><TD>4-4</TD><TD>0-3</TD><TD>6-3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>28. Georgia Tech (20-11)</TD><TD>86.9</TD><TD>3-4</TD><TD>6-4</TD><TD>3-2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>29. Florida St (22-12)</TD><TD>86.7</TD><TD>3-5</TD><TD>2-7</TD><TD>4-0</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>30. USC (23-11)</TD><TD>86.7</TD><TD>5-6</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>8-3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE bgColor=#f3f3f3><TBODY><TR bgColor=#cebdb3><TD>
Team
</TD><TD>
Rating
</TD><TD>
v. Top 25
</TD><TD>
v. 26-50
</TD><TD>
v. 51-100
</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD width=170>31. Clemson (22-10)</TD><TD>86.4</TD><TD>0-5</TD><TD>7-4</TD><TD>4-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>32. Boston College (21-11)</TD><TD>86.3</TD><TD>2-5</TD><TD>5-3</TD><TD>4-2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>33. Virginia Tech (20-11)</TD><TD>86.2</TD><TD>4-1</TD><TD>3-4</TD><TD>5-4</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>34. Creighton (22-10)</TD><TD>86.2</TD><TD>1-2</TD><TD>1-0</TD><TD>10-5</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>35. Marquette (23-10)</TD><TD>86.2</TD><TD>4-6</TD><TD>2-0</TD><TD>3-3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>36. Butler (26-6)</TD><TD>85.9</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>2-0</TD><TD>6-3</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>37. BYU (24-9)</TD><TD>85.9</TD><TD>1-4</TD><TD>2-1</TD><TD>3-1</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>38. Illinois (23-11)</TD><TD>85.9</TD><TD>1-6</TD><TD>2-3</TD><TD>4-2</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD>39. Virginia (19-10)</TD><TD>85.8</TD><TD>4-1</TD><TD>4-3</TD><TD>4-4</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#f3f3f3><TD>40. Vanderbilt (20-11)</TD><TD>85.8</TD><TD>4-3</TD><TD>2-4</TD><TD>6-3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE bgColor=#f3f3f3><TBODY><TR bgColor=#cebdb3><TD>
Team
</TD><TD>
Rating
</TD><TD>
v. Top 25
</TD><TD>
v. 26-50
</TD><TD>
v. 51-100
</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d8e9fd><TD width=170>41. Purdue (21-11)</TD><TD>85.7</TD><TD>1-4</TD><TD>3-3</TD><TD>7-2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

From Jeff Sagarin:

College Basketball 2006-2007 Div I games only through 2007 March 16 Friday
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.13 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR
1 North Carolina $= 93.88 29 6 79.64( 5) 8 2 | 14 4 | 91.99 3 | 96.95 1
2 Florida $= 92.88 30 5 76.28( 72) 4 2 | 11 4 | 91.59 4 | 94.22 3
3 Ohio State $= 92.45 31 3 77.98( 33) 6 3 | 10 3 | 96.30 1 | 90.34 6
4 Kansas $= 92.14 31 4 76.19( 73) 3 1 | 8 1 | 90.51 6 | 94.23 2
5 Wisconsin $= 91.00 30 5 77.46( 46) 5 4 | 11 5 | 92.77 2 | 89.48 9
6 UCLA $= 90.89 26 5 78.94( 13) 8 1 | 11 2 | 91.24 5 | 90.23 8
7 Georgetown $= 90.51 27 6 77.73( 40) 4 3 | 10 4 | 89.22 9 | 91.80 4
8 Memphis $= 90.29 31 3 74.11( 117) 1 3 | 1 3 | 89.89 7 | 90.33 7
9 Texas A&M $= 89.49 26 6 75.75( 82) 3 2 | 4 2 | 87.73 17 | 91.69 5
10 Pittsburgh $= 88.82 28 7 78.60( 21) 1 3 | 7 6 | 88.74 11 | 88.52 11
College Basketball 2006-2007 Div I games only through 2007 March 16 Friday
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.13 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR
11 Maryland $= 88.75 25 8 77.86( 37) 6 1 | 10 6 | 88.06 15 | 89.11 10
12 Kentucky $= 87.23 22 11 81.45( 1) 2 6 | 7 10 | 86.86 18 | 87.24 17
13 Texas $= 86.72 25 9 77.11( 56) 1 5 | 2 7 | 85.97 20 | 87.17 19
14 Michigan State $= 86.72 23 11 78.42( 27) 3 6 | 7 9 | 85.96 21 | 87.17 18
15 Butler $= 86.71 26 6 75.16( 96) 3 1 | 4 1 | 85.55 23 | 87.69 13
16 Duke $= 86.57 22 11 80.41( 3) 3 5 | 8 9 | 85.16 28 | 87.94 12
17 Southern Illinois $= 86.45 27 6 79.10( 11) 1 1 | 8 4 | 88.79 10 | 84.54 35
18 Oregon $= 86.44 27 7 76.55( 68) 6 2 | 7 4 | 88.71 12 | 84.56 34
19 Tennessee $= 86.42 23 10 79.53( 7) 4 5 | 9 6 | 86.56 19 | 85.93 24
20 Arizona $= 86.38 20 11 81.16( 2) 2 7 | 5 11 | 85.86 22 | 86.55 21
College Basketball 2006-2007 Div I games only through 2007 March 16 Friday
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.13 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR
21 Washington State $= 86.17 26 7 76.99( 61) 2 4 | 4 5 | 87.95 16 | 84.53 36
22 Indiana $= 85.96 21 10 78.51( 25) 3 5 | 5 8 | 85.35 25 | 86.22 23
23 Winthrop $= 85.93 25 4 70.64( 209) 1 4 | 3 4 | 89.38 8 | 83.56 44
24 Notre Dame $= 85.88 24 8 74.71( 106) 1 4 | 5 5 | 84.24 34 | 87.63 14
25 Georgia Tech $= 85.75 20 12 78.66( 17) 3 4 | 9 9 | 84.18 35 | 87.37 15
26 Purdue $= 85.70 22 11 77.91( 36) 3 7 | 5 7 | 84.65 32 | 86.53 22


From Ken Pomeroy:



Through games of Friday, March 16 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE NON-CONF SOSRnk Team Conf W-L Pyth AdjO/Rnk AdjD/Rnk Cons/Rnk Luck/Rnk Pyth/Rnk OppO/Rnk OppD/Rnk Pyth/Rnk 1 North Carolina ACC 29-6 .9873 123.3/3 84.4/2 20.9/183 -.055/282 .8207/6 110.3/5 96.7/27 .6216/95 2 Kansas B12 31-4 .9868 117.8/16 81.0/1 23.7/281 +.023/105 .7290/64 107.1/58 98.2/70 .5133/175 3 Florida SEC 30-5 .9829 123.3/2 86.7/12 26.1/324 +.003/158 .7124/75 106.8/65 98.7/83 .3357/308 4 Ohio St. B10 31-3 .9809 121.6/5 86.4/11 19.4/112 +.045/54 .7959/23 107.5/49 95.5/7 .5670/133 5 Georgetown BE 27-6 .9798 124.0/1 88.5/18 22.5/245 -.007/174 .7939/26 107.9/38 96.0/10 .5309/158 6 Texas A&M B12 26-6 .9794 120.0/6 85.8/7 24.1/290 -.045/269 .6915/81 105.7/86 98.6/77 .3898/272 7 Wisconsin B10 30-5 .9754 116.9/23 84.9/4 22.9/257 +.041/67 .7697/40 107.4/51 96.7/31 .5128/176 8 UCLA P10 27-5 .9732 117.4/19 85.9/9 19.7/122 +.009/140 .8079/16 109.8/10 96.9/39 .6932/47 9 Memphis CUSA 31-3 .9678 115.7/27 86.0/10 19.6/121 +.015/123 .6013/117 103.1/142 99.5/101 .6437/76 10 Maryland ACC 25-8 .9676 114.9/33 85.5/5 21.7/218 -.019/207 .7755/38 107.9/39 96.9/38 .4846/199 11 Duke ACC 22-11 .9648 114.2/37 85.6/6 20.3/151 -.080/313 .8531/3 111.0/2 95.2/4 .6896/50 12 Pittsburgh BE 28-7 .9605 118.9/11 90.1/24 19.7/123 +.026/95 .8151/11 109.4/12 96.2/13 .5961/112 13 Michigan St. B10 23-11 .9581 113.9/39 86.7/13 25.1/310 -.039/259 .7942/25 108.7/23 96.6/26 .5466/149 14 Louisville BE 24-9 .9576 115.5/29 88.1/16 18.5/85 -.039/260 .7664/44 107.3/53 96.7/35 .4896/195 15 Kentucky SEC 22-11 .9567 118.0/15 90.2/25 18.1/72 -.037/255 .8737/1 111.2/1 94.0/1 .8084/16 16 Indiana B10 21-10 .9532 119.1/10 91.6/37 22.9/256 -.053/279 .8117/14 107.6/44 94.8/3 .6378/80 17 Texas B12 25-9 .9520 121.8/4 93.9/56 21.8/220 -.017/202 .7588/51 107.4/50 97.2/49 .4945/190 18 Georgia Tech ACC 20-12 .9517 118.3/14 91.3/34 25.1/313 -.072/308 .8002/19 108.9/17 96.5/23 .5215/169 19 Villanova BE 22-11 .9462 114.5/35 89.2/20 20.0/139 -.044/266 .8452/4 110.4/4 95.3/5 .6725/61 20 Notre Dame BE 24-8 .9453 119.3/9 93.1/50 24.7/304 -.023/216 .6722/87 104.9/101 98.5/76 .2682/324 21 Purdue B10 22-11 .9416 111.3/66 87.4/15 25.5/321 +.007/145 .7970/21 109.0/16 96.8/37 .6061/104
</PRE>Yes, the numbers are hard to sort out when they are compressed into this post but all you have to see is that Florida may be from the South, but they ain't THAT great. And Purdue is a potential "live dog".

Of course, since Purdue is from the Big 10, they won't get any credit. The Big 10 sucks, right? At least that's what a lot of people who post on the internet would lead you to believe. Those people have no clue. Basketball games are won and lost with defense and no conference plays better defense than the Big 10. Look at the average scores so far in the tourney--Big 10 teams are holding their opponents to the mid-50's and that's including a lot of run-and-gun teams like Texas A&M CC, Arizona and Gonzaga. You want to say those opponents aren't any good? Then what do you call Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas and Jackson State, Florida's last four opponents? Florida didn't play any tougher schedule this year than UNLV.

I don't know if I will play this game, but I do know thinking "the Big 10 sucks" is about as uneducated a strategy as a person can come up with.

You do know which conference has won the most NCAA tourney games since 2001 don't you?
 

dirty

EOG Master
#20
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Culver those are good stats, but I IMO Just looking at the Numbers...their really is no Difference in the Numbers for the most part against the Top 25, 26-50 etc in the top 6 teams... it all boils down to who is playing the best ball, and there is no one in the Nation playing ball better than UF now. No One. Georgetown is the only one close. UF has pounded OSU already and Oden does not make up 20 points No way, No how.....



The one thing I find Disturbing about these Types of charts is IMO they are all discredited when teams Like Southern Illinois have a RPI in the top 5 and are ranked in the top 12 in these things.. Put them in a Conference where they have to play Night in and Night out and they are lucky to make the Tourney. In these shitty Conferences they play in, they can take off a week or more at a time sometimes, because of the Competition they play. Do the Saluki's deserve to be in the Tourney, yes they do, but do they deserve the High seed they have gotten, IMO no they didn't. Comeon...Struggling with Holy Cross and they had a RPI as high as they did...Just proves that RPI's are a joke and are made to get these smaller Schools in the Tourney


And Looking at Purdues Ranking and record against Top 25 team and the 26-50 shows me they don't even belong in the Tourney....
 
#21
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

The NCAA gives out the trophy (and the big checks) in March and April.

I havent read people mentioning that the 'big ten sucks', but its certainly not a great conference this year. i have indi beating ucla today, i like some of the teams and i think they have a few of the top coaches in the country, but im not real high on the talent level at this point. i believe they have upgraded the recruiters they have in the league, over the last couple years, and soon they will be with the acc/big-east.


just my opinion. we'll see.


as for florida, they won it all last year and didnt lose anything. i have no problem with them being the #1 seed and they have a better 'team' than anyone ive seen this year. they have the best combination of an inside/outside presence in this tourney. imo
 

Culver

EOG Veteran
#22
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Dirty--You are welcome to your opinions. Just keep in mind that these types of power ratings are what Ken White and the other major oddsmakers use to set the line all season.

I don't see their sportsbooks going out of business in the foreseeable future.
 

dirty

EOG Master
#23
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Never have I said that or doubt that Culver. I was just really telling you my thought process and opinions. I have a lot to learn and that is why I am posting things like that. I don't have a problem being wrong, I just want to learn when I am. This gambling is hard enough as it is. Any pertinant info I can get from you or anyone else that helps me is welcome... I am not a total Square, but I am in no means Sharp. I know enough about this to keep my head above water most times, but have relapses. I am just trying to learn. Thanks for sharing your info... I never wanted to sound Unappreciative.
 
#24
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Culver, with all due respect here, your own words just said they give out the trophy and big checks in MArch and April, well FLA won the tourney last year and retunred the whole team, is there a better resume out there?? As far as those Power Numbers, there is an outside chance FLA and WISKY matchup next weekend, WISKY is rated higher on those rankings, u want to wager who will be favored in that game??
 

UofM2003

EOG Addicted
#25
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Never have I said that or doubt that Culver. I was just really telling you my thought process and opinions. I have a lot to learn and that is why I am posting things like that. I don't have a problem being wrong, I just want to learn when I am. This gambling is hard enough as it is. Any pertinant info I can get from you or anyone else that helps me is welcome... I am not a total Square, but I am in no means Sharp. I know enough about this to keep my head above water most times, but have relapses. I am just trying to learn. Thanks for sharing your info... I never wanted to sound Unappreciative.
Yup exactly. That is why I post as well. There is some good info on this forum, so any discussion is usually a good one. I have my opinions, and am usually set on them, but any information that comes up is useful and as much as I may disagree, I do not think I am foolish enough to disregard that info (I think I said that right).

So everybody, keep the thoughts/posts comin!
 

Culver

EOG Veteran
#26
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Florida will be favored because the public will be lined up to bet them against a Big 10 team. Ken White and every other oddsmaker knows that.

Doesn't mean they're going to win.

If they played the 2006 NCAA tourney 100 times, how many times do you think they would have won? What were their future book odds at the beginning of the tourney? Were LSU and George Mason the third and fourth best teams in the country last season?

The NCAA tourney is largely random.
 
#27
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Florida will be favored because the public will be lined up to bet them against a Big 10 team. Ken White and every other oddsmaker knows that.
Which offshore book uses Ken White for odds? I don't think CRIS or Pinnacly or Olympic does. They open first and everyone else (including vegas books) just copy. I am not sure about this, maybe someone can correct me if I am wrong.
 

Culver

EOG Veteran
#28
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Dirty-The main point of my post was to point out that when lines come out there are no gifts this time of year. Maybe in November and December, but at this stage of the season every line is logical.

You are a good handicapper. Don't get tripped up by regional bias. You cite Florida's win over Ohio State. How about the games Florida played this season where they sucked? How much defense has Florida seen this season?

I'm not saying Florida can't kill Purdue (heck, I'm from IU, I'm all for it). But the numbers are what they are for a reason and the main reason this line looks like a gift to you is because you (and millions of others) don't value defense in your handicapping. The Big 10 plays brutal defense this time of year and they can't be intimidated. The fact that the Big 10 is one terrible non-call at the end of the Illinois-Virginia Tech game from being 6-0 is no coincidence. And they are 6-0 against the spread because bettors don't respect their ability to shut down any opponent. Marquette scored zero points in the first 10 minutes against Michigan State. Zero! When's the last time an SEC team did that in the NCAA tourney?

Just playing Devil's Advocate for you.
 

Culver

EOG Veteran
#29
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Which offshore book uses Ken White for odds? I don't think CRIS or Pinnacly or Olympic does. They open first and everyone else (including vegas books) just copy. I am not sure about this, maybe someone can correct me if I am wrong.
Doesn't matter. As I said, every major bookmaker uses power ratings when making their opening lines.
 

dirty

EOG Master
#30
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Dirty-The main point of my post was to point out that when lines come out there are no gifts this time of year. Maybe in November and December, but at this stage of the season every line is logical.

You are a good handicapper. Don't get tripped up by regional bias. You cite Florida's win over Ohio State. How about the games Florida played this season where they sucked? How much defense has Florida seen this season?

I'm not saying Florida can't kill Purdue (heck, I'm from IU, I'm all for it). But the numbers are what they are for a reason and the main reason this line looks like a gift to you is because you (and millions of others) don't value defense in your handicapping. The Big 10 plays brutal defense this time of year and they can't be intimidated. The fact that the Big 10 is one terrible non-call at the end of the Illinois-Virginia Tech game from being 6-0 is no coincidence. And they are 6-0 against the spread because bettors don't respect their ability to shut down any opponent. Marquette scored zero points in the first 10 minutes against Michigan State. Zero! When's the last time an SEC team did that in the NCAA tourney?

Just playing Devil's Advocate for you.

Very good Points Culver, and admittedly I don't factor Defense in as much as I should....Thanks for the Feedback and the Compliments....
 
#31
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Dirty,

It didnt' appear to me that Russ that complimenting you, but rather, I thought he was being diplomatic...:LMAO

Just kidding and I appreciate all the thoughtful comments in this thread...

Even shoebox!!! :cheers

THE SHRINK
 

dirty

EOG Master
#33
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Dirty,

It didnt' appear to me that Russ that complimenting you, but rather, I thought he was being diplomatic...:LMAO

Just kidding and I appreciate all the thoughtful comments in this thread...

Even shoebox!!! :cheers

THE SHRINK

:finger004:finger004:finger004:finger004:finger004



Threads like this are great for the site IMO... glad to see them going on...
 
#36
Re: FLA opens -8.5 against Purdue at Pinny

Culver, with all due respect here, your own words just said they give out the trophy and big checks in MArch and April, well FLA won the tourney last year and retunred the whole team, is there a better resume out there?? As far as those Power Numbers, there is an outside chance FLA and WISKY matchup next weekend, WISKY is rated higher on those rankings, u want to wager who will be favored in that game??

DAMN, I guess I wotn get that FLA-Wisky Matchup:rolleyes:

Anyway, that game could have gone either way and still think FLA is best team out there, I knew that Wisky rating was terrible and still think OhioSt is overrated.

I got FLA, NCAR, KANSAS, OHIOST, TXAM, UCLA, GTOWN, MEMPH in that Order
 
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