French Open...

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#2
I assume parlaying Nadal from the quarters to the championship match would double your money.

Why not get a free peek at Nadal and the competition over the first three rounds?
 
#4
At this point in his career, I’d be looking to beat him with Thiem, Novak or tsitsipas.

He won Rome, but overall, had the worst prep season in some time. I’m not sure he’s that healthy, and I’m not sure he can keep it up for the whole tournament
 
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#6
What about Nadal at +100? What do the tennis aficionados think? Guy has won it 12 times.

He is VERY, VERY likely to make it to the Final and then you can scalp if you wish, he will be at at least -170

All his bad matchups, guys that can overpower him (if Nadal's form is not at a high level) are on the other side of the draw.
 
#8
He is VERY, VERY likely to make it to the Final and then you can scalp if you wish, he will be at at least -170

All his bad matchups, guys that can overpower him (if Nadal's form is not at a high level) are on the other side of the draw.

Not the same Nadal

Lost to tsitsipas in Madrid
Got smoked by fognini in Monte Carlo
Lost in straights to thiem in Barcelona

Anyone who’s watched his clay court season knows it’s not gonna be as easy as most people think.


Previous years before French open:
2018: won 3 titles
2017: won 3 titles
2016: won 2 titles (and wd in 3rd rd of FO)
2015: won 0 titles and lost in QF of FO
 
#9
Fognini and Thiem are on the other side, Del Potro as well

And as I said in the final Nadal would be a sizeable favorite over them.

If Heim gets +100 a scalp is guaranteed

And yes the achilles heel here is Tsitsipas, but in the SF if Tsitsipas makes it, Nadal will be -350.

Conditions are slower at RG than at Madrid, and as Tsitsi said, that was the difference, when they played in Rome (where Nadal won 6-3, 6-4 or so)
 
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#11
You can still get +800 or more on Thiem at several places.

I wouldnt do it tho. He is very inconsistent. He, of all the contenders is liable to crash out early

My longshot is Tsitsipas at +2300
 

Heim

EOG Master
#16
Not the same Nadal

Lost to tsitsipas in Madrid
Got smoked by fognini in Monte Carlo
Lost in straights to thiem in Barcelona


Anyone who’s watched his clay court season knows it’s not gonna be as easy as most people think.


Previous years before French open:
2018: won 3 titles
2017: won 3 titles
2016: won 2 titles (and wd in 3rd rd of FO)
2015: won 0 titles and lost in QF of FO

From what I understand his losses were on fast clay.....Roland Garros is his preferred slow...
 
#17
According to Nadal this is what happened. Now he is a bit of a lunatic.

His preparation wasnt ideal coming into the clay season. He didnt get his confidence back till after the Thiem loss in Barcelona.
And Madrid is the fastest clay there is because of the altitude.

Rome is very similar to RG-- slow conditions
 
#18
At this point in his career, I’d be looking to beat him with Thiem, Novak or tsitsipas.

He won Rome, but overall, had the worst prep season in some time. I’m not sure he’s that healthy, and I’m not sure he can keep it up for the whole tournament
JMO but the Majors are actually easier on the top players then 1000's. They first week, they are just taking out the garbage because the field is so large. And they have a day off between rounds. Very very helpful, especially that Novak and Nadal are older now.

Like in Rome, on Friday Djokovic played a marathon match against Del Potro, on Saturday a 3 setter versus Schwartzmann and of course he would run out of gas vs Nadal in the final. He played 9 sets in less then 48 hours.
And he played 5 matches the week before.

None of that exist at the Slams. No wonder they make it to the Semis 90%+ percent of the time
 
#31
It doesnt matter your age. It takes a toll on your body to play match after match after match with no rest in between days. Nadal was resting while Theim resumed his battle with the best player in the world just yesterday. It's too much.

Should have moved the final to tomorrow. Thiem would have got him.
 
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