FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

I think that Ian "Uncle Creepy" McCall+265 has value, should be a good fight

Leaning Alves in main event at the moment

I'm a big Benavidez fan, odds way too high..very little chance he loses..he will be the champ at this new weightclass

leaning Philippou over McGee, another good fight

Cole Miller, Souza and Daley look like parlay material

The 2 women, Tate and Rousey are not bad looking, I'll be watching
 

LCD

2
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

Tate/Rousey. I like Tate at +225. You don't know what Rousey is going to do if she gets hit in the face. What her cardio is like. Tate is a pretty big step up in competition and she's a wrestler. She has had several months to train to stop Rousey's armbar. Her skill level is probably similar to another Alpha Male fighter Dillashaw and we saw how good he was at dealing with the submission attempts of Watson. The fact that she left Alpha Male because of supporting Cruz (wtf) and is now training at his camp (I think) is troubling right before her biggest fight but she's very motivated. Rousey saying she could beat up Tate's boyfriend. Rousey jumping to the head of the line. Rousey being the favorite. Tate's boxing isn't great but her wrestling is very good and she's tough and she's motivated. She should win 50% of the time. The first minute of this fight will be pretty lol. It's very rare that two women fighters have hated each other so much and one has a single, unstoppable move. If Tate can stop it then it gets pretty interesting.

I like Alves too but will wait till the weigh-in to see if there's going to be any drama.

I don't want to touch Johnson/McCall (Uncle Creepy being the number one ranked ranked flyweight by Sherdog and being a pretty big underdog?) Though I'm a big fan of Mighty Mouse.

Benavidez's line is so terrible.

Philippou and McGee is a coin flip. McGee is such a gamer but one punch by Philippou (who is really improving) could end it. I think the odds will change with more people betting on McGee because of TUF. I'll wait and if they go high enough I'll take Philippou.

Kyle Noke. The fight is in Australia. Noke needs a win after his loss to Herman and he should get it against Craig who is fighting in the UFC for the first time. Definitely big on Noke.

Miller (with maybe a submission of the night bet if the odds are good).
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

After researching Rousey further, I don't like my Tate bet. Prior to MMA, she has trained judo for 12 years and medaled at the last 2 Olympics for the US in judo. I've also read about her physical and mental toughness and how she is judo tossing dudes in training. Tate could win but it seems to me Rousey's athletic pedigree and credentials are world class. I have a feeling that Rousey will be the top woman in MMA sooner than later.

Philippou has some heavy hands and has been impressive his last couple of fights. tough call on that fight, McGee is a tough dude..should be a good one

Noke hasn't impressed me, I don't trust him
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

off topic here, this is a Bellator fight in April but what are your thoughts on this line?

[TABLE="class: matchupBox fontsize14, width: 724"]
<tbody>

[TD="bgcolor: #333333, colspan: 2"]MMA - BELLATOR - Apr 20[/TD]


[TD="bgcolor: #F5D165, colspan: 2"]BELLATOR-66: CLEVELAND, OH -LIVE ON MTV2- $250 LIMIT[/TD]


[TD="class: leftColumn"]Time[/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

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<tbody>

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[TD="class: rightColumn"]

[TABLE="width: 651"]
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[TD="class: rotCell"]37825[/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]SHINYA AOKI[/TD]
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[TD="class: selectCell"][/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"][/TD]


[TD="class: rotCell"]37826[/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]EDDIE ALVAREZ[/TD]
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</tbody>[/TABLE]
 

LCD

2
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

Prejudice against Japanese fighters? I'll look to see if I can find a copy of the fight.
 

LCD

2
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

Scooting on the ground. Pink and yellow tights. And owning.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Awh8P4HW3Kk

I'll put some money on Aoki. But the line will probably get better so it's probably a good idea to wait.

On Bookmaker Benavidez/Urushitani is -750/+550. On Bovada it's -900/+550. Way to be terrible Bovada. If the line goes any higher I'm going to put a little money on Urushitani. Probably after the weigh-in when he'll look pretty physically unimpressive compared to Benavidez. Maybe a small Tate/Urushitani parlay!

Really liking Cole Miller.
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

those pink and yellow tights are quite a number :LMAO

Aoki straight owned him first fight..

The upcoming fight will be in a cage and not a ring, might be the reason for the weird line?
 

LCD

2
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

I bet Noke/Craig under 2 1/2 when it opened at +125. I wanted to bet it some more and it's moved to -120. And I bet Miller/Siler under 1 1/2 when it opened at +150 and now it's moved to +120. I just feel that Miller and Noke are going to kill their opponents or maybe something flukey will happen. I just don't see either fight lasting long.

I watched the press conference of the Strikeforce event and Tate and Rousey hate each other so much and were verbally catfighting. The male fighters were laughing and shaking their heads and basically forced to look almost irrelevant.

I also wanted to bet Johnson/McCall over 2 1/2 but the price is so terrible at -355.

I'm still going to make a small bet on Urushitani if he goes over +600 for the lols.

Jake, you have to help me figure out some ridiculous 8 fight parlay or something for part of the free play.
 

LCD

2
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

I'll add Thomson to my ridiculous parlay. Have Philippou. I think Kampmann is really good. He beat Shields and probably beat Sanchez who is one of my favorite fighters. But I think they're going to stand in the middle of the octagon and tee off and Alves hits a lot harder than him. Isn't this pertty likely in that Kampmann has to worry about getting screwed by the judges again. Kampmann can beat Condit but lose to Daley.

Here's the Daley fight:

http://www.mma-core.com/videos/fights/Paul_Daley_vs_Martin_Kampmann_UFC_103_Full_Fight/10006563

Isn't it going to play out something like this.

I think I'll probably bet the u 2 1/2 at +200. Two good strikers teeing off, I think the fight doesn't go the distance.
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

I might put a small bet on main event, but not feeling strongly either way. I read that Alves put on 30 pounds in less than 3 hours after the weigh ins..not sure who will benefit from this?

I do like Thompson over Noons

not sure about Philippou, McGee has a ton of heart..I think I changed my mind on this fight and might add McGee to a parlay or 2

Leaning to your boy Noke now..I read that he came out to the music "Land Down Under" yesterday for weighins and the crowd went apeshit lol

sorta agree on the +600 longshot Urushitani..I really really like Benavidez and believe he will be champ at flyweight, Benavidez by decision is -110, which looks good

as far as the parlay, here are the fights I might add to mine:

McGee
Noke
Cole Miller
Benavidez
Penner
and probably Alves with the intention of hedging on Kampmann if the others hit, what do you think? :+clueless
 

LCD

2
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

Craig's problem is that he was a good regional fighter who basically fought every fight in Houston as the hometown crowd favorite. He's now travelling halfway around the world to fight someone with far more experience than him. There's going to be something like 20,000 people in that arena and everyone is going to be rooting for Noke. That's a pretty tough octagon debut.

Miller's a douche (did you see him trying to be a badass at the weigh-ins) but he's a pro and should never have moved up to lightweight. This is his natural weight class and he's a lot better than Siler. Siler beat Miller's brother to get into the house on TUF. Miller went to Australia early to get used to the time change. The line has moved so much in his favor that I was kind of forced to take under 1 1/2 which probably isn't smart.

Didn't Benavidez look kind of wasted at the weigh in.

I think Alves will be at around 200 pounds. I'll add Penner and maybe drop Philippou.

Rooting for the brunette to beat the blonde. Have to wait to add that my idiot parlay.
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

ya, I'm on board with Noke for a parlay or 2 now..

Miller is a douche but he can back it up most of the time, and going to get revenge for lil bro

I have a lot of faith in Benavidez, he has beat everyone short of Dominic Cruz(twice) while facing a lot of solid competition. I might take Benavidez by decision and put a little on +600 to hedge..Benavidez usually grinds out a decision with his wrestling and takedowns, maybe he pulls off a sub?

having second thoughts on Penner, Perosh is an Aussie submission specialist but is almost 40 years old..not all that familiar with penner but was thinking of fading the old man lol

Rousey gets it done inside the distance..
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

threw in a few parlays with an early soccer game and ncaa hoops.added Te Huna to one of them
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

adding Pineda+135..I like the value here, Semerzier doesn't impress me much

also call me a sucker but too much value on Uncle Creepy adding a bit more :shoot:
 

LCD

2
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

Uncle Creepy twirling his moustache at the weigh-in was lol. Post your parlays so I can know what to root for. The Strikeforce weigh-in is at 5:00 so I have to wait to add those fights. I added Miami (NBA) first half to one parlay but really want to add Souza, Thomson and Tate to the others.
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

I'll post mine assuming they are still alive after the soccer/ncaa..I don't have much freeplay left so just betting fairly small parlays, nothing special..post some of your plays as well..I haven't really done much, still deciding what to do
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

This one survived, another that I had a soccer 1st half over died. I keep waffling on the Perosh fight and decided to take the home dog..hopefully the crafty old man pulls it off

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[TD="class: dateCell"]03/02/2012 @ 11:40 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]CBB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[1842] 1H DELAWARE -7-110

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]03/02/2012 @ 08:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

[24551] THIAGO ALVES PK-125
(THIAGO ALVES vrs MARTIN KAMPMANN)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[24571] ANTHONY PEROSH PK+120
(ANTHONY PEROSH vrs NICK PENNER)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

[24576] COLE MILLER PK-425
(STEVEN SILER vrs COLE MILLER)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[24580] KYLE NOKE PK-255
(ANDREW CRAIG vrs KYLE NOKE)

[/TD]


</tbody>[/TABLE]

[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]48.00[/TD]


</tbody>[/TABLE]
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

well, both parlays with early ncaa hoops games survived and the soccer one died..I'll post some freeplay parlays that I have, not really liking anything big tonight just putting in these parlays for some action

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[TABLE="width: 500"]
<tbody style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; list-style-type: none; list-style-position: initial; list-style-image: initial; font-size: 1em; ">

[TD="class: dateCell"]03/02/2012 @ 12:40 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]CBB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[850] ILLINOIS ST +3-120 (B+?)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]03/02/2012 @ 08:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

[24551] THIAGO ALVES PK-125
(THIAGO ALVES vrs MARTIN KAMPMANN)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[24568] JAMES TE HUNA PK-295
(AARON ROSA vrs JAMES TE HUNA)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

[24576] COLE MILLER PK-425
(STEVEN SILER vrs COLE MILLER)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[24580] KYLE NOKE PK-255
(ANDREW CRAIG vrs KYLE NOKE)

[/TD]


</tbody>[/TABLE]

[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]26.40[/TD]


</tbody>[/TABLE]
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

Here are a couple that I did with games tomorrow and a hoops game tonight:

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[TD="class: dateCell"]03/03/2012 @ 10:05 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]NHL[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[52] BOSTON -230

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]03/03/2012 @ 07:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]NHL[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

[64] VANCOUVER -205

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell"]03/02/2012 @ 08:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[24551] THIAGO ALVES PK-125
(THIAGO ALVES vrs MARTIN KAMPMANN)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

[24576] COLE MILLER PK-450
(STEVEN SILER vrs COLE MILLER)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[24580] KYLE NOKE PK-260
(ANDREW CRAIG vrs KYLE NOKE)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]

[24583] TJ WALDBURGER PK-115
(TJ WALDBURGER vrs JAKE HECHT)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[24587] DANIEL PINEDA PK+135
(DANIEL PINEDA vrs MACKENS SEMERZIER)

[/TD]


</tbody>[/TABLE]

[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]110.28[/TD]


</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="width: 651"]
<tbody style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; list-style-type: none; list-style-position: initial; list-style-image: initial; font-size: 1em; ">

[TD="class: teamCell"]

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<tbody style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; list-style-type: none; list-style-position: initial; list-style-image: initial; font-size: 1em; ">

[TD="class: dateCell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD"]03/02/2012 @ 08:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD"]CBB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD"]

[861] SAN DIEGO +13?-110

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell"]03/02/2012 @ 08:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[24551] THIAGO ALVES PK-118
(THIAGO ALVES vrs MARTIN KAMPMANN)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD"]03/02/2012 @ 06:15 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD"]

[24564] COURT MCGEE PK-140
(CONSTANTINOS PHILIPPOU vrs COURT MCGEE)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"]

[24576] COLE MILLER PK-485
(STEVEN SILER vrs COLE MILLER)

[/TD]


[TD="class: dateCell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD"]03/02/2012 @ 02:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD"]MU[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell, bgcolor: #DDDDDD"]

[24583] TJ WALDBURGER PK-137
(TJ WALDBURGER vrs JAKE HECHT)

[/TD]


</tbody>[/TABLE]

[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]0.00[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]46.46[/TD]


</tbody>[/TABLE]
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

also have straight wagers on

McCall +285 and +265

McGee by decision+250

Alves inside distance+300

might add another parlay or 2 later, gl :cheers
 

LCD

2
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

I'm still waiting for Bookmaker to list the Strikeforce card for parlays. I just hope that Alves doesn't do to us what Okami did last week though it would be less of a shock.

I have
Noke/Craig under 2 1/2 at +125 and EV
Miller/Siler under 1 1/2 at +150 and +130
Alves/Kampmann under 2 1/2 at +205

All the lines for these bets moved in the right direction so other people feel the same.

Should have bet Miller when he was +275 but I was too stupid.

I will make a small bet on Urushitani (he's now +575 and I think can still go higher) if either of the first two bets above win.

For the parlays I am not going to key on any one fighter after last week but will do 4 & 5 fighter parlays with:

Noke
Miller
Te Huna
Thomson
Tate
Souza
Alves
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

they usually don't add MMA parlays until the day of the event at bookmaker..lame, but that is the way they do it..I have some on Bovada as well, shitty lines but they allow parlays as well.
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

fukkin piece of shit Noke, I should've stuck to my guns..guy is straight garbage :shoot:
 

LCD

2
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

Wow that was just terrible. That was one of the worst fights I've ever seen. I'm sorry for pushing Noke. I thought he had Craig in the first minute and then it was like he melted.
 

LCD

2
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

Since most of my parlays are wrecked. So am I. I just need it to end in the next 2 1/2 minutes. One time.
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

Siler won the 1st and is winning the 2nd by my count..Miller needs a finish..I'll feel better if miller shits the bed here :btj:
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

I see bookmaker posted odds on Velasquez/Mir

Velasquez-400
Mir+300

sorta like Mir at that price...he has looked quite good his past few fights
 

LCD

2
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

Goes from -275 to -400 and then gets dominated. Obviously bet the underdog on every fight. So now I need a slightly unstable drug taking weight cutting Brazilian to partially salvage my night.
 

JAKEPEAVY21

EOG Dedicated
Re: FRIDAY UFC / SATURDAY STRIKEFORCE

going to try and poach some good value lines on Bookmaker live betting :scooter
 
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