FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
That was a concern with Cam from 3-4 years ago, certainly not lately. He took too many shots to the throwing shoulder. Running qbs really fall off the cliff in the NFL, Cam has also. NE gambled and lost.
Full card of NFL discussion?
- Thread starter WildBill
- Start date
If the Next Gen stats said Detroit was only 22% to win before the game's final play (and 3% with 34 seconds left), they are worthless. They only had to go 10 yards, against a poor defense, and a team who has "choke" in the front of their minds.
It seems like every week some team is 2 or 3% to win and they get it done. Very skeptical of those in game win percentages.
It seems like every week some team is 2 or 3% to win and they get it done. Very skeptical of those in game win percentages.
WildBill
2
None of those systems ever take those things into consideration and you know it. That's why people are beating live odds pretty good, the algorithms are based on every team in a situation like that in history while the sharp bettors are doing the basic adjustments you made. Its pretty much a 4th and 11 situation to the computer and I'd say over history that 22% sounds about right.
WildBill
2
Onto next week...already put in some action on:
Pit un49 - looks like this one is dropping already but well regarded defensive teams by DVOA, I'm going to speculate that the defense is what shows up in such a big game where the teams know each other so well. Steelers due for some under regression too, almost got it yesterday.
Den un45 - similar to the first game, teams who on paper should be seeing better defensive results now facing foes they know pretty well. The Broncos score was so inflated by game situation. turnovers and of course two defensive/special teams TDs. If the Chiefs don't get those TDs in the second quarter this game very well might have been something like 20-13.
SF +3.5 -15 - getting this many points in this series is a must bet. Glad I took it earlier, this game almost seems certain to go off at 3. Niners rounding into form and the Seawhawks are going to play crazy games all year, but they won't cover as a favorite much with their defense.
Buf -4 - so maybe I got in too early on this one with 3.5s out there, but I think this is a statement Bills win here. The beast they could never handle is very beatable, they will show no mercy in this one if given the chance. The Niners just put textbook game film out there on how to attack the NE defense and the Bills have a lot of very similar elements to their game to use plus a more mobile QB.
I'm leaning towards Carolina, but I don't think I'll pull the trigger there. Falcons just seem the better team on paper but keep blowing these games and Panthers seem made for the dog role. Other games I have early leans on but haven't bet are GB -6.5 and TB un47. Might take some positions if the numbers move away from these.
Pit un49 - looks like this one is dropping already but well regarded defensive teams by DVOA, I'm going to speculate that the defense is what shows up in such a big game where the teams know each other so well. Steelers due for some under regression too, almost got it yesterday.
Den un45 - similar to the first game, teams who on paper should be seeing better defensive results now facing foes they know pretty well. The Broncos score was so inflated by game situation. turnovers and of course two defensive/special teams TDs. If the Chiefs don't get those TDs in the second quarter this game very well might have been something like 20-13.
SF +3.5 -15 - getting this many points in this series is a must bet. Glad I took it earlier, this game almost seems certain to go off at 3. Niners rounding into form and the Seawhawks are going to play crazy games all year, but they won't cover as a favorite much with their defense.
Buf -4 - so maybe I got in too early on this one with 3.5s out there, but I think this is a statement Bills win here. The beast they could never handle is very beatable, they will show no mercy in this one if given the chance. The Niners just put textbook game film out there on how to attack the NE defense and the Bills have a lot of very similar elements to their game to use plus a more mobile QB.
I'm leaning towards Carolina, but I don't think I'll pull the trigger there. Falcons just seem the better team on paper but keep blowing these games and Panthers seem made for the dog role. Other games I have early leans on but haven't bet are GB -6.5 and TB un47. Might take some positions if the numbers move away from these.
WildBill
2
I took a small position on Colts -3. Lots of key players needed the bye to get healthy, I'll get to a larger position if they are a go on Sunday. Even though you never know with Rivers, have to think more time with the team will lead to better results too. I know Lions fans get excited about beating anyone, but come on Jags and Falcons aren't exactly contenders and they really shouldn't have beaten the Falcons if Gurley takes the knee like he knew he was supposed to.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Probably evens out as they should have beat Chicago in Week 1.
WildBill
2
Went to a full position on Ind -2.5 -115 yesterday. This seems likely to hit a -3 marketwide by tonight.
Adding a full position on Bal -4. Was thinking Ravens might get close to -3 but market moving back up. Steelers living a charmed life, but this is more like a 10-6 team taking on a 12-4 team. Ravens are better team and hopefully they don't put on another poor effort when the spotlight is on them.
Holding my nose a bit but taking Dallas +9.5. The steam up on this one feels more like a move to deter the teaser bettors. I mean are people really laying that much on the Eagles over a TD? I doubt it. I don't fear this backup QB much, he probably is close to as good as overrated Andy. And come on, Eagles by over a TD, please. Add in the 0-7 ATS record, finally feels like a bit of capitulation by the market, no one wants to bet the Cowgirls so I will.
Adding a full position on Bal -4. Was thinking Ravens might get close to -3 but market moving back up. Steelers living a charmed life, but this is more like a 10-6 team taking on a 12-4 team. Ravens are better team and hopefully they don't put on another poor effort when the spotlight is on them.
Holding my nose a bit but taking Dallas +9.5. The steam up on this one feels more like a move to deter the teaser bettors. I mean are people really laying that much on the Eagles over a TD? I doubt it. I don't fear this backup QB much, he probably is close to as good as overrated Andy. And come on, Eagles by over a TD, please. Add in the 0-7 ATS record, finally feels like a bit of capitulation by the market, no one wants to bet the Cowgirls so I will.
pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
should be an interesting game as tua seeing his first game action since his injury, while miami attempts to go over 500 for the first time since early 2018
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Heavy winds forecasted for Sunday in Balt, definitely affecting the total. Balt coming off a bye, could be the healthiest that Jackson has been all year. One thing Balt has struggled with is great balanced offenses. Connor has ran well for a month now. Pitt can use play action all game off of that. Jackson has to be smart and take care of the ball For Balt. Pitt may be a teaser leg for me .
WildBill
2
I would be on Miami for sure if not for the Tua switch. Tough defense to start with, Rams probably control the line of scrimmage and force him to make tough throws. Nothing like the clean pockets he got at Bama with all star line in front of him. Fitz would have been better this week but I get that they wanted to switch over bye week.
kane
EOG master
Fair points about Tua's first start, but Burrow and Herbert have looked like franchise QB's from the first game they played, and the Rams have no tape on him unless they go back to his Alabama days, Flores watches him every practice and if he feels this is Tua's time I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. The one concerning thing for me is the Rams rushing attack against the Dolphins rush defense, if the Rams have success running the ball it could be a long day for Miami, but Flores is a good defensive coach and he's had two weeks to prepare. I know it was a couple years ago, but Flores helped design the defense that completely shut down the Rams offense in the SB when he was with NE. If the Dolphins can contain the Rams running game and force Goff into second and third and long, I think Miami wins the game, if the Rams are running it down Miami's throat and controlling the clock, they win it. I was able to get a good number but to me anything over a FG is a solid take
pro analyser
EOG Dedicated
With Phil up to 11 at pinn (I took 7' dumbass) wonder what's the line if they played kc or the jets for that matter.
READY FREDDY
A Wheelbarrow for my Balls
how will Burrow fair? with three of his starting o-line out?
anybody have any knowledge about the strength of backups?
was going to take Burrow in some fantasy stuff, probably backing off a bit.
anybody have any knowledge about the strength of backups?
was going to take Burrow in some fantasy stuff, probably backing off a bit.
WildBill
2
He will struggle with that, but with no Mixon and likely being behind they will throw the ball. Might put up another big yardage and TD number especially if Titans go to prevent defense.
READY FREDDY
A Wheelbarrow for my Balls
can't wait to see how Tua performs!
lar off two primetime games, Mia off a bye.
could be a good spot for Tua?
Will be pulling for him.
lar off two primetime games, Mia off a bye.
could be a good spot for Tua?
Will be pulling for him.
Not a good spot for the Rams. Short week off the Monday night win, now travel east a couple thousand miles into the humidity. Still not sure how good the Rams really are, having beaten on all 4 NFC Least teams and the Bears at home. On the positive side, its likely they have had plenty of time to look at Miami tape. The Dolphins beat SF on Oct 11, and the Rams played the Niners the following week, so a good chance they started taking notes on the Dolphins a couple weeks ago. But with a new QB, that may be of limited use.
SlipperyPete
EOG Dedicated
The Rams are the same they were last year and the year before.
Against a very good D, their offense will always sputter
Against a very good D, their offense will always sputter
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Should be a good under game.
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
All those totals dropped on Tuesday afternoon....heavy wind for sure in Cleveland.....
I know; I'm about 25 miles from the stadium. Gusts of 40 MPH expected at all those venues.
The problem with betting weather as a factor 5 days out is the weather guys aren't always right. But 13 hours from gametime, it should be a layup.
I'd be hesitant to bet Cincy under because they tackle so badly. Henry could really inflict damage on them.
WildBill
2
Its great for them except for the 1 or 2 weekends they get killed on them.
WildBill
2
Certainly you want to account for wind, but my sense is teams are smarter about how to plan for it. It hurts long passing game obviously, but then again so much of the NFL is about throwing it at 1 on 1 matchups to bigger receivers with the expectation they come down with it more often and at times get help from PI calls. Once QBs get calibrated to the wind I think they can overcome some of its affects and coaches help by avoiding the plays that are impacted the most. Add in the much more favorable totals after its bet down and I don't think one should bet many of these games once you have seen the moves have been made.
SlipperyPete
EOG Dedicated
WildBill
2
Bit of a rough week, but I did get in some late hedges and live bets that kept it from being a disaster. The late scoring in the Bucs/Giants to get to 48 when I had under 47.5 was maddening. Anyways onto this week...
I was going to make a few small bets but then saw this new book in Colorado, Sportsbetting.com completely change my plans. I got lines there that were so bad I'm wondering if they don't get canceled later for being so off. I got in full positions on these three games around 9am MT this morning:
GB -2.5 -105!!!!!
NO/TB ov 47.5
NYG/Was un 43
I should have bet even more but figured it would label myself as an obvious shot taker. Bets are still up, but lines have moved now to GB -5.5, NO 51.5 and NYG 41.5.
Onto the games I'm really looking at:
Cardinals -4
I'm not buying into the Tua could have done more gang. I watched a little of the action on tape and he's just not there yet IMO. He doesn't look in charge and we'll see if he even has been given much authority to change out of bad plays. Add to it the Dolphins run D is still not good and I think this scheme will expose them worse than a Goff led rushing attack that plays it straight up and doesn't have the threat of a QB run. Rams got into trouble, fell behind and then couldn't use that run game. If Cards give up a bunch of scores on special teams or turnovers then they won't cover, but otherwise they really should keep rolling in this one.
Broncos +4/+178
Took the Broncos when they got to +3.5 last week, I think this week is much the same. Their defense can keep them in almost any game, although preferably better not to fall way behind. Chargers were really making Lock uncomfortable when Bosa was in the game, when he left Lock stepped into his throws and looked good. I think the Falcons won't get pressure on him consistently and with his confidence back this has the makings of a nice money line upset. Falcons may not be as bad as their record, but they aren't that good either, this line feels inflated as I expected around a -2 or -2.5.
Ravens un45.5
How fast the hype on Lamar died down. His losses this year show he's a good QB, but don't count on him to put up big numbers against decent defenses. He's really feasting on bad D well, but this isn't his week. Rivers has to be scared facing these guys too, he really is feast or famine and good defenses that can generate upfront pressure tends to be more famine for him. I could see a lot of FGs here, both of these teams just might try to win this on defense.
Washington -3
Still think this team has a good shot at winning this division. The bye week seems to be going well, coach is talking about his good treatment outcome and Allen gets more time to integrate into the offense. As bad as its been the bar is so low for him to play well. Giants continue to show life, but I think here might be a bit of a letdown from losing a game they had such a shot at. The massive rest advantage doesn't hurt WFT either. I'm playing it at -3 small, wondering if maybe can get to -2.5 with people reacting to Giants with another ATS win.
Waiting on
Dallas, lets see if it gets crazy like +17. Wouldn't doubt it, but if ever there was a trap game where a team would mail it in this is it. At +13.5 I don't think I'll bite but anything over 14 and I'll take the Cowgirls in the hopes they can get some semblance of an offense going.
Bills +3 might get a good buy low moment this week. I will take them +3 later if that's all that it hits but feeling there might be a +3.5 coming, maybe with a little juice. Still don't trust the Hawks to blow teams out, took a banged up Niner team to get the more comfortable win this weekend.
Saints, hoping this gets to 6. No matter what Saints seem to play nothing but one score games. Feels like this should be another one of them, give me 6 points and I like my chances. Feels like this line should be -3, but public sentiment building for the Brady's, seems like lots of value. I'm waiting at 5.5 feeling like this line will only go up at least until the weekend when some sharps might bite.
I was going to make a few small bets but then saw this new book in Colorado, Sportsbetting.com completely change my plans. I got lines there that were so bad I'm wondering if they don't get canceled later for being so off. I got in full positions on these three games around 9am MT this morning:
GB -2.5 -105!!!!!
NO/TB ov 47.5
NYG/Was un 43
I should have bet even more but figured it would label myself as an obvious shot taker. Bets are still up, but lines have moved now to GB -5.5, NO 51.5 and NYG 41.5.
Onto the games I'm really looking at:
Cardinals -4
I'm not buying into the Tua could have done more gang. I watched a little of the action on tape and he's just not there yet IMO. He doesn't look in charge and we'll see if he even has been given much authority to change out of bad plays. Add to it the Dolphins run D is still not good and I think this scheme will expose them worse than a Goff led rushing attack that plays it straight up and doesn't have the threat of a QB run. Rams got into trouble, fell behind and then couldn't use that run game. If Cards give up a bunch of scores on special teams or turnovers then they won't cover, but otherwise they really should keep rolling in this one.
Broncos +4/+178
Took the Broncos when they got to +3.5 last week, I think this week is much the same. Their defense can keep them in almost any game, although preferably better not to fall way behind. Chargers were really making Lock uncomfortable when Bosa was in the game, when he left Lock stepped into his throws and looked good. I think the Falcons won't get pressure on him consistently and with his confidence back this has the makings of a nice money line upset. Falcons may not be as bad as their record, but they aren't that good either, this line feels inflated as I expected around a -2 or -2.5.
Ravens un45.5
How fast the hype on Lamar died down. His losses this year show he's a good QB, but don't count on him to put up big numbers against decent defenses. He's really feasting on bad D well, but this isn't his week. Rivers has to be scared facing these guys too, he really is feast or famine and good defenses that can generate upfront pressure tends to be more famine for him. I could see a lot of FGs here, both of these teams just might try to win this on defense.
Washington -3
Still think this team has a good shot at winning this division. The bye week seems to be going well, coach is talking about his good treatment outcome and Allen gets more time to integrate into the offense. As bad as its been the bar is so low for him to play well. Giants continue to show life, but I think here might be a bit of a letdown from losing a game they had such a shot at. The massive rest advantage doesn't hurt WFT either. I'm playing it at -3 small, wondering if maybe can get to -2.5 with people reacting to Giants with another ATS win.
Waiting on
Dallas, lets see if it gets crazy like +17. Wouldn't doubt it, but if ever there was a trap game where a team would mail it in this is it. At +13.5 I don't think I'll bite but anything over 14 and I'll take the Cowgirls in the hopes they can get some semblance of an offense going.
Bills +3 might get a good buy low moment this week. I will take them +3 later if that's all that it hits but feeling there might be a +3.5 coming, maybe with a little juice. Still don't trust the Hawks to blow teams out, took a banged up Niner team to get the more comfortable win this weekend.
Saints, hoping this gets to 6. No matter what Saints seem to play nothing but one score games. Feels like this should be another one of them, give me 6 points and I like my chances. Feels like this line should be -3, but public sentiment building for the Brady's, seems like lots of value. I'm waiting at 5.5 feeling like this line will only go up at least until the weekend when some sharps might bite.
choslamshe
EOG Master
Played the Pack/Nines Under 51.5 at open but has since dropped to 50 most places. Still like it. GB is methodical just as much as it is 'big play' and with the horrible week SF has had, my gut tells me their D comes out a bit more fired up. Total seems high to me.
WildBill
2
Good points, the Niners might shift into game clock management mode if they are staying close. My only concern with them is they are getting close to the point where they could be giving up. They really needed a win last week and with all the talent on IR they might internally go to a let's see what we got mode and go get em next season.
WildBill
2
Funny part on the bad lines is they even gave me $100 of free play today because I bet on their promo day. I tell you people who aren't fortunate enough to live in a legal market with a lot of competition you really would have to suck at betting to lose money in this state for at least the first year.
WildBill
2
Public loves Tompa Brady.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Kamara didn't practice today, somethng to keep an eye out for.
Just bonus whoring in Colorado would put you up a few K.
I mean that sportsbetting.com offers 1000$ free bet.
IWishIWasAPro
EOG Master
It seems covid is hitting the NFL more. Have to be careful with your bets early on. Early bets. Think we might shut things down again in some places.
So I was 1 week early on this bet. Books totally adjusted the line still got +450 for anytime TD. I've been crushing Bronco player props because I know the team inside and out. If you know your team and what the most likely game plan is going to be these player props are easy pickens. Only prop I've lost was Melvin Gordon Under play that he had 13 yards in the 1st half but Lindsey got injured at the end of the 2nd Quarter and never came back. It would be nice to see more of these from you guys.
WildBill
2
Its not a free bet, its a risk free week in which they will refund up to $1000. There are other $500 free bet offers though at others, easy to hedge into certain $350+ of cash once you have some balances around to use.