Getting that Kentucky Derby itch.....

Viejo Dinosaur

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Anybody have any strong feelings about futures or trainers....could this be the year for any horse from across the Atlantic?

Always look forward to the Derby.....but must admit feeling a little down about the many horses going down at Santa Anita leading up to this years Triple Crown....
 
ChiTownJoe

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
Going for first time. Hard to have fav right now, out of the likely Baffert’s —Roadster, Game Winner, and Improbable, like Game Winner the best, Inprobable the least. I don’t think Baffert wanted to have Big race out of GW in SA Derby. Think he moves forward in derby. Don’t want the maiden claimer Servis/Fla Derby winner as he had everything go his way. I thought the Casse out of FG Risen Star was good, but really wanted the Mott. Both flopped in Louisiana Derby. Wood/TB winner Tacitus with Mott is interesting. Think 2 div of Rebel have been best races, interested to see how Omaha Beach, Improbable, Long Range Toddy run today in the slop.
 
ChiTownJoe

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
One thing about Game winner is he likes to run wide, may lose a ton of ground in 20-horse field.
 
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fifty cint

EOG Dedicated
I went to the Derby many years ago....Had a much better time on that Friday at the track.Would never go again...especially with Saratoga less than 3 hours away
 
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Patkeats

EOG Enthusiast
Agree fifty, went to the Darby last year, never going back. Although I’m glad I went one time, check it off the list. I to am about 3 hours drive to Saratoga, nothing like it, find myself spending more and more time up there each summer. Great deals on airbnb’s.
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Gonna be the most wide open derby in years... no great. A lot of mediocre ones.

Baffert will likely have a couple of the favorites, but they all are very vulnerable. Not buying roadster... game winner doesn’t seem to have the best trips. Improbable is interesting today... I don’t have him winning, but if he gets in, he’ll be dangerous albeit at a low price.

Today’s Arkansas derby might be the biggest prep race of them all— I count 4 horses that could win the derby from this race. Improbable, Omaha beach, country house, and Galilee. The last two are longshots to get in at this point, but I will be betting them hard today, and I also have futures on both of them in the derby.

The $1 super is almost guaranteed to pay $10k this year... should be a great, but almost impossible, wagering race.
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Patkeats said:
Agree fifty, went to the Darby last year, never going back. Although I’m glad I went one time, check it off the list. I to am about 3 hours drive to Saratoga, nothing like it, find myself spending more and more time up there each summer. Great deals on airbnb’s.
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Saratoga is the best by far. Love every second I spend there. I make a 2.5 hour drive there at least once per week in July and august. Can’t wait. Excited that Belmont is open next week... I’ll be there 2 weeks from today. Love all nyra racing, but I’m a little sick of the fields at aqueduct now. Time to move on to the spring
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Won’t surprise me to seen Omaha beach as the favorite at 4/1 ish

Wide open

Game winner, improbable, roadster, and Omaha beach will likely be the 4 top bet and will all be between 4/1 and 8/1, depending on post position obviously.
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
BenoitPaire2 said:
Won’t surprise me to seen Omaha beach as the favorite at 4/1 ish

Wide open

Game winner, improbable, roadster, and Omaha beach will likely be the 4 top bet and will all be between 4/1 and 8/1, depending on post position obviously.
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2nd level of horses? War of Will, Maximum Security, Tacitus, Code of Honor

Maximum Security is my fave lonhshot, pre-draw.
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Because I’m bored on a Saturday night.. here’s my guesses for running styles in the derby top 20:

Early speed/need the lead:
Maximum Security: Fastest horse in the race...
Spinoff: (could go in the stalker pack)

Stalker/right off the lead: Vekoma, By My Standard, War of Will, Gray Magician, Omaha Beach(will probably look to go for the lead earlier than most on this list if Smith is the rider), Improbable (likely wants to be much closer than he was today), Long Range Toddy

Mid pack: Roadster, Plus Que Parfait, Game Winner, Code of Honor (could be farther back, but has shown some decent early speed), Tax, Cutting Humor, Bodexpress (might be more forwardly placed)

Closer/Back: Tacitus, Haikai, Win Win Win, Signalman, Master Fencer


Alternatives:

- Anothertwistafate: more comfortable on the lead.. but doesn’t have the early speed of maxiumum security... likely stalker

- Sueno: stalker.. likes to be a length or so off the pace

- Bourbon War: closer.. likely near the back.
 
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John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
BenoitPaire2 said:
Won’t surprise me to seen Omaha beach as the favorite at 4/1 ish

Wide open

Game winner, improbable, roadster, and Omaha beach will likely be the 4 top bet and will all be between 4/1 and 8/1, depending on post position obviously.
Click to expand...


Feels right, BP2.

There always seems to be a Derby horse embraced by the wiseguys that will take an unusual amount of money.
 
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