Grade I Arkansas Derby

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#1
Love Richard Mandella's Omaha Beach this Saturday in Hot Springs, Arkansas.

That's Oaklawn Park, Race 11, #3 Omaha Beach.

The program price is 2/1 and I'm confident Omaha Beach will outrun the Baffert-trained, morning-line favorite Improbable.

I plan to bet the LATE DOUBLE keying #3 Omaha Beach with the third and fourth-choices in the nightcap.

The numbers are 3-5 and 3-8.

Bet it, don't book it.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#2
Plenty of recreational money in the betting pools this Saturday at Oaklawn Park.

Last year, a crowd of 64.500 at Oaklawn Park watched the closing-day card which produced a track record $16.1 million in wagers.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#3
First post Saturday at Oaklawn Park is set for 12:30 p.m. CT.

Post time for the Arkansas Derby is scheduled for 6:43 p.m. CT.
 
#4
Completely against you. Omaha Beach had an absolutely perfect break last race. He won’t get that again.

Also Nolo Contesto showed little at Santa Anita yet beat Omaha earlier this year.

Improbable/Toddy exacta
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#5
Completely against you. Omaha Beach had an absolutely perfect break last race. He won’t get that again.

Also Nolo Contesto showed little at Santa Anita yet beat Omaha earlier this year.

Improbable/Toddy exacta

You could be right, Weinke.

I would not separate the 1-2 finishers in the first division of last month's Rebel.

If Improbable, then Toddy and vice versa.

I simply think Omaha Beach is better than both rivals.

Why hold the sharp break against Omaha Beach?

I think it's a sign of his maturity/development.

Also, I loved O.B.'s gallop out in his win over Game Winner.

Omaha Beach had more left in the tank when the two horses hit the wire.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#7
I make the Arkansas Derby 3-11-1 in that order.

Mike Smith (age 53) to get the money over Jon Court (age 58) with youngster Jose Ortiz (age 25) finishing third.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#8
Just watched the replay of last month's first division of the Rebel Stakes and that was a GREAT ride by Jon Court.

Hard to believe, Long Range Toddy had the lead at the first turn.
 
#16
Against both of the favorite... I like Galilean and country house

Galilean should sit off a fast pace, and make a winning move
Country house comes from way back

Ex box, win on both horses, and got them on top in tris and supers.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#18
This is why tracks like Oaklawn should not stack their top stakes races on the same day. You are gambling too much on the weather. These races could have been spread out over several cards. Now the handle will be hurt by the sloppy track.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#20
If Mike Smith wins, who does he ride in the Derby ?

Omaha Beach or Roadster ?
Got to believe if everything was equal (figs, trip etc), he'd take Roadster. Have to believe he'd take the Baffert runner over Mandella.

But let's see how the figs shake out, and the trip. If Omaha Beach wins, there will be the question was he helped by the slop?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#21
This is why tracks like Oaklawn should not stack their top stakes races on the same day. You are gambling too much on the weather. These races could have been spread out over several cards. Now the handle will be hurt by the sloppy track.

Interesting point.

Never heard it made before.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#24
This is why tracks like Oaklawn should not stack their top stakes races on the same day. You are gambling too much on the weather. These races could have been spread out over several cards. Now the handle will be hurt by the sloppy track.
the Apple blossom is tomorrow sunday for top fillies and mares midnight Bisou in action
 
Top