Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Week 10

AFLGuru

AFLGuru

2
Great to be here ladies and gents. Here's my record across the way, though obviously this week is a fresh start here.

ATS: 11-7 (+15.08 units)
Totals: 9-4 (+7.26 units)
Team Totals: 10-4 (+7.03 units)
Moneylines: 9-8 (+6.57 units)
Props: 0-4 (-4.65 units)
Teasers: 1-1 (+0.50 unit)
1st half/Quarter: 15-9 (+5.90 units)
2nd half: 12-8 (+12.12 units)
Overall: 67-45 (+49.71 units)

Selections for this week....

Toronto vs. Calgary under 55 (3 units +103)
Edmonton vs. Montreal under 55.5 (2 units -110)

More to come later on in the week. This is a start. Best of luck to all.

--AFLGurucheers
 
Stickie

Stickie

EOG Senior Member
You're doing real well in CFL for it being an experiment for you this year AFLG. Nice job.

cheers
 
raiders72001

raiders72001

1
Nice work Guru. You had a great AFL year and are now following it up with a great CFL season. Hope you keep it up for the NFL and NCAA foots.cheers
 
AFLGuru

AFLGuru

2
The AFL is my game. I'm still not very confident with CFL despite my track record, though I feel I'm improving every week. However, these are the only things at this point I bother to handicap anymore. I don't have the information that most cappers do about all million teams in the NCAA, and I certainly don't have the information handy about the NFL. I feel as though the AFL is me against a specific linesmaker. Same with the CFL. Joe Public has very little to do with the lines. And I feel in the AFL, I have more knowledge on the game than the books do. I thought this was something I could comprehend with the CFL as well with the talent level being much of the same, and so far so good. Hopefully the 2nd half of the CFL season treats me as well as the first half has, as I begin to track some specific stats like I do the AFL. Literally in the AFL, I had one Excel file for each team in the league, updated every Monday after the games were complete, tracking well over 50 stats for each team, following trends, etc. I can't bring myself to doing that for the NCAA and the NFL.

Besides, all of those stats are readily available in the NFL and NCAA on various websites across the internet... the AFL stats aren't kept very well and I have to watch the games and keep them myself off play by plays, as no one tracks, for example, how kikcoffs Clay Rush put over the net at home vs. on the road... I can tell you that, as by watching the league for so long, I know exactly what's important and what's not. So though I will gladly share insight on the happenings at my school of Florida State and my local team of Central Florida, I'm going to leave the capping to the experts on board that are proven. I'm still just 20 and have lots to learn about handicapping and gambling in general. I hope by talking to all to as many of the successful bettors as I can in all various sports that I can find my way to be in that small percentage of gamblers that actually nets money year after year after year.

Thanks for the support. As I said to a respected capper across the various gambling websites at one time, I'll gladly share my knowledge of the games in exchange for teaching me how to turn that knowledge into success. So far, so good. Best of luck to you.

--AFLGurucheers
 
AFLGuru

AFLGuru

2
Toronto vs. Calgary over 40 total rushes (2.5 units -108): Don't let the fact that Henry Burris has thrown for 300 yards in the past 4 games scare you away from this. If anything is scary, it's the fact that John Avery only rushed the ball only 4 times all game against Edmonton. But this is a different story. That Edmonton team was tops against the run in the CFL. Calgary is 6th in the CFL in rushing yards allowed at over 110 a game. Toronto is actually right behind them with a slightly higher clip. Toronto should be a tired team, and I look for Calgary to exploit that with Joffrey Reynolds and Henry Burris running around tonight. Don't be surprised if the Stamps alone rushed the ball 30 times tonight, as the Stamps know that the Argonauts secondary could be the best the CFL has to offer.

Best of luck.

--AFLGurucheers
 
S

SSI

EOG Dedicated
great work Guru, didnt know your record was this good..

get that respected capper (_ _ _-_ _ _-_ _ _) to teach you how to leave your money in your bankroll and build it to a big enough to do this fulltime, i think you have what it takes.. take that as a big compliment..
 
AFLGuru

AFLGuru

2
Toronto (-3) vs. Calgary (1.5 units -112)
Toronto vs. Calgary over 26.5 2nd half (1 unit -110)

Defenses are tiring on short weeks and I really don't like what I've heard thus far for under... I think over 43.5 is more likely than under 55, and I've got the middle shot. I've now got the Argos ml at -112 for 1.5 units, over 43.5 for 3 units and under 55 for 3 units. Hopefully it all works out.
 
AFLGuru

AFLGuru

2
Good read Wednesday night, but took a loss due to playing chicken shit in the 2nd half and props... Gotta stop playing props... or as I suggested across the street, perhaps I should just fade my own props. Safer idea. Almost laid off everything, but I talked myself into taking over in this Hamilton/Winnepeg game. I want to lay a bit more on the under in the Montreal game, but I'm going to let this number explode as high as it wants. Be back a bit later.

Bombers/Ti-Cats over 10.5 1st quarter (1.5 units +126)
Bombers/Ti-Cats over 25.5 1H (1.5 units +105)
Bombers/Ti-Cats over 51.5 (2 units -108)
Bombers over 14.5 1H (1 unit +105)
Bombers over 28 (2.5 units -110)
 
AFLGuru

AFLGuru

2
Swept the board in the 1st game. Let's hope for a complete sweep tonight with the late game as well.



Alright, this is ballsy, but it's a percentage play. The field is wet in Edmonton. Receivers are falling down all over the place in warm-ups. The same problem came into play a couple weeks ago for the Eskimos against the Argonauts. And what happened in that game? Toronto's receivers stayed on their feet and the Eskimos receivers didn't. Only 18 Edmonton points for the night. So now I'm even more sold than before on under for the game, and I think the Alouettes have the significant advantage running the ball. Edmonton hasn't even really tried it this year. So gimme the 5 points as offered by 5Dimes and gimme the great odds on them at the moneyline... Also, with the slow track, Landry should be slowed for the Alouettes.

So on a night that I didn't like the card, I now love the card... lol... That's what some homework will do for ya. Eskimos are in trouble in this one if Ricky Ray isn't very very sharp. I'll take my chances.

Already had...

Montreal/Edmonton under 55.5 (2 units -110)

And now adding...

Montreal/Edmonton under 57.5 (1 unit -110)
Montreal (+5) @ Edmonton (2 units -110)
Montreal (ml) @ Edmonton (0.5 units +180)
Montreal/Edmonton under 28.5 (1.5 units -110)
Edmonton under 29.5 (2 units +100)
 
AFLGuru

AFLGuru

2
Last shot at some props for awhile. Casey Printers will lead the Lions tonight and really hasn't shown any sort of form that won him MVP last year. This game just sounds like run, run, run, and more run, meaning the clock should be eaten quickly. Also, the Riders announcers think that they have no chance today, as they are highly down on Neelon Green.


BC to have more rushing yards (1.5 units +147)
BC/Sask over 41 rushes (1 unit -150)
BC/Sask under 64.5 comp% (1 unit -105)

BC under 30 (1 unit -115)
BC under 15 1H (1.5 units -110)

Sask under 27.5 (1 unit -110)
Sask under 12.5 1H (1.5 units -110)

BC/Sask under 55 (0.5 units -110)
BC/Sask under 27.5 1H (1 unit -110)
BC/Sask under 10.5 1Q (1 unit -135)

BC (-4.5) @ Saskatchewan (2 units +100)
 
AFLGuru

AFLGuru

2
So far so good Hache... 2-0 BC about 2 minutes into the 2nd quarter... and Neelon Green is 2 for 10 to start the game :+thumbs-2


As the BC announcers just said... it's a comedy of errors in this game. Kick off the crossbar, botched FG snap, ball thrown about 30 yards past the WR, etc. Perfect set up for a big time under game.
 
AFLGuru

AFLGuru

2
8-3 Riders at the half. Taking my chances that BC can come back in this one.

BC (-3) @ Saskatchewan 2H (1 unit +106)
BC/Saskatchewan over 27 2H (1.5 units +108)
 
AFLGuru

AFLGuru

2
Alright let's see if I can do some semblance of a recap for this week...

Toronto (-3) vs. Calgary W (+1.5 units)
Toronto vs. Calgary over 26.5 2nd half L (-3.16 units)
Toronto vs. Calgary under 55 W (+3.09 units)
Toronto vs. Calgary over 40 total rushes L (-2.70 units)

Toronto/Calgary: 2-2 (-1.27 units)

Bombers/Ti-Cats over 10.5 1st quarter W (+1.89 units)
Bombers/Ti-Cats over 25.5 1H W (+1.58 units)
Bombers/Ti-Cats over 51.5 W (+2 units)
Bombers over 14.5 1H W (+1.05 units)
Bombers over 28 W (+2.5 units)

Winnepeg/Hamilton: 5-0 (+9.02 units)

Montreal/Edmonton under 55.5 L (-2.20 units)
Montreal/Edmonton under 57.5 L (-1.1 units)
Montreal (+5) @ Edmonton L (-2.2 units)
Montreal (ml) @ Edmonton L (-0.5 units)
Montreal/Edmonton under 28.5 1H L (-1.58 units)
Edmonton under 29.5 L (-2 units)

Montreal/Edmonton: 0-5 (counting under 55.5 and 57.5 as one bet) (-9.58 units)

BC to have more rushing yards L (-1.5 units)
BC/Sask over 41 rushes L (-1.5 units)
BC/Sask under 64.5 comp% W (+1 unit)
BC under 30 W (+1 unit)
BC under 15 1H W (+1.5 units)
Sask under 27.5 W (+1 unit)
Sask under 12.5 1H W (+1.5 units)
BC/Sask under 55 W (+0.5 units)
BC/Sask under 27.5 1H W (+1 unit)
BC/Sask under 10.5 1Q W (+1 unit)
BC (-4.5) @ Saskatchewan L (-2 units)
BC (-3) @ Saskatchewan 2H W (+1.06 units)
BC/Saskatchewan over 27 2H L (-1.5 units)

BC/Saskatchewan: 9-4 (+3.06 units)

Net for the week: 16-11 (+1.23 units)... So I kicked some money around, but didn't get killed by a miserable Montreal/Edmonton game... so I'm happy

I'll make it all add up before getting started next week...

--AFLGuru
 
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