dirty
EOG Master
Handicapping the BCS race
By TONY BARNHART
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 10/09/05
We are one week away from the first BCS standings of the season. We are also a week away from the mid-point of the 2005 campaign. So now would seem an appropriate time to handicap the national championship race. But please remember that the posted odds are for entertainment purposes only.
THE FAVORITES
If you had to bet the rent, chances are that two of these three teams will be in the Rose Bowl.
USC (5-0): The Trojans are obviously bored by playing mere mortals but still they rolled up 724 yards of total offense in beating Arizona 42-21. Saturday, USC will go to Notre Dame (4-1) in what promises to be an unforgettable atmosphere. If the Trojans go into South Bend and steamroll the Fighting Irish, then you can forget it. Punch their ticket to Pasadena.
Odds of winning the national title: 3-2.
Potential stumbling blocks: Saturday at Notre Dame; Dec. 3 vs. UCLA
Texas (5-0): Mack Brown and company cleared up a lot of doubts by thumping Oklahoma 45-12. In Vince Young the Longhorns have college football's most dynamic quarterback since Michael Vick. What Texas can't do is suffer a letdown and think the season is over. Saturday versus Colorado will be a challenge.
Odds of winning the national title: 2-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Saturday vs. Colorado; Oct. 22 vs. Texas Tech; Nov. 25 at Texas A&M.
Virginia Tech (6-0): What's scary about the Hokies is that they are getting better each week. The defense was already good and now quarterback Marcus Vick is playing with a lot of confidence. Don't be shocked if Virginia Tech is No. 2 ahead of Texas in the first BCS rankings.
Odds of winning the national title: 2-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Oct. 27 vs. Boston College; Nov. 5 vs. Miami; Dec. 3 ACC championship.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
If a couple of teams stumble, these guys are ready to walk in a take a spot in the Rose Bowl.
Georgia (5-0): After Saturday's convincing win at Tennessee, it can be said that every preseason question about the Bulldogs has now been answered. D.J. Shockley gives Georgia a dimension at quarterback that will be tough for opponents to handle. The defense is big and athletic. If the offensive line continues to play like this, Georgia could find itself back in the SEC championship game for the third time in four years.
Odds of winning the national title: 4-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Oct. 29 vs. Florida (Jacksonville), Nov. 12 vs. Auburn; Dec. 3 SEC championship game.
Alabama (5-0): If the Crimson Tide had not lost Tyrone Prothro to injury, their odds would be better. Still, the defense is so good that we expect Alabama to be in the SEC championship game and from there anything can happen.
Odds of winning the national title: 4-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Nov. 19 at Auburn; Dec. 3 SEC championship game.
Penn State (6-0): Lest any doubters remain, the Nittany Lions proved they were back with Saturday night's 17-10 win over Ohio State. The Penn State defense is big and fast. The offense has one of the bright young stars in the game in wide receiver Derrick Williams. But a word of warning to Penn State fans: Beware of Saturday's trip to wounded Michigan.
Odds of winning the national title: 5-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Saturday at Michigan; Nov. 19 at Michigan State.
NEED SOME HELP
These teams are good, but some things are going to have to break in their favor.
Florida State (5-0): The Seminoles will basically have it in cruise control until they go to Florida on Nov. 26. But they are getting better and backup quarterback Xavier Lee is starting to have an impact on the offense.
Odds of winning the national title: 6-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Nov. 26 at Florida.
Notre Dame (4-1): Of all the one-loss teams, Notre Dame seems to have the best shot of getting into position to play for the national title. Of course, this is all predicated on the Fighting Irish finding a way to beat No. 1 USC this Saturday in South Bend, Ind. Beat USC, and Notre Dame will very likely finish 10-1 and wait for the luck of the Irish.
Odds of winning the national title: 7-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Saturday vs. USC.
UCLA (5-0): The Bruins deserve mention here because they found a way to come back and beat No. 10 California 47-40 on Saturday night. The next big challenge on the UCLA schedule is Nov. 12 when Arizona State comes to the Rose Bowl. The Bruins are a very long shot, but have made great strides in the second year under Karl Dorrell.
Odds of winning the national title: 10-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Nov. 12 vs. Arizona State; Dec. 3 at USC.
Poll notes
***After beating Ohio State, Penn State is back in the Associated Press Top 10 at No. 8. It is the Nittany Lions' highest ranking since it was No. 6 in 1999.
***USC is No. 1 for the 25th straight week, which is a record.
***After beating Oklahoma, Texas received one more first place vote (7) on Sunday than it did a week ago.
***Ohio State fell out of the No. 6 spot and was replaced by Alabama. So the ACC has poll positions 3 and 4 (Virginia Tech, Florida State) while the SEC has No. 5 and 6 (Georgia and Alabama).
***Notre Dame (4-1) is back in the Top 10 at No. 9 heading into Saturday's showdown with No. 1 USC.
***Michigan (3-3) fell out of the rankings, probably for good this season, after a 23-20 loss to Minnesota.
Upon further review
***You don't tug on Superman's cape. Virginia's Brad Butler made the mistake of throwing a blindside chop block on Mathias Kiwanuka, the All-America defensive end at Boston College. All that did was make the BC offensive line mad. You don't want to do that. Virginia led 14-7 when the incident occurred. The Eagles' O-line took over and ran over the Cavaliers 21-3 in the final 27 minutes of the game.
***Lost in the excitement of Northwestern's 51-48 win over Wisconsin was a truly remarkable performance by Badger running back Brian Calhoun. He became the first player school history to rush for over 100 yards (23 carries, 123 yards) and have over 100 yards of receiving (11 catches, 128 yards) in the same game.
***There have been way too many "firsts" for Nebraska since Bill Callahan brought the West Coast offense to Lincoln. The latest: Saturday's 34-31 loss to Texas Tech was the first Homecoming game the Cornhuskers have dropped since 1968
***Don't look now, but Central Florida has won its third straight game after beating Memphis 38-17. The Golden Knights are only the third team in the past 55 yards to win three straight games after going winless the season before. The others were South Carolina (2000) and Boston College (1979)
By the numbers
8: Consecutive games won by Penn State. That's the nation's longest winning streak behind No. 1 USC (27) and No. 2 Texas (12).
172.4: Average number of all-purpose yards per game by UCLA's Maurice Drew. Drew had 299 all-purpose yards in Saturday night's 47-40 win over Washington.
107-9: Miami's record against unranked teams since 1990. The Hurricanes demolished Duke 52-7 on Saturday.
0-37: Baylor's record in Big 12 road games until Saturday's 23-13 win at Iowa State.
By TONY BARNHART
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 10/09/05
We are one week away from the first BCS standings of the season. We are also a week away from the mid-point of the 2005 campaign. So now would seem an appropriate time to handicap the national championship race. But please remember that the posted odds are for entertainment purposes only.
THE FAVORITES
If you had to bet the rent, chances are that two of these three teams will be in the Rose Bowl.
USC (5-0): The Trojans are obviously bored by playing mere mortals but still they rolled up 724 yards of total offense in beating Arizona 42-21. Saturday, USC will go to Notre Dame (4-1) in what promises to be an unforgettable atmosphere. If the Trojans go into South Bend and steamroll the Fighting Irish, then you can forget it. Punch their ticket to Pasadena.
Odds of winning the national title: 3-2.
Potential stumbling blocks: Saturday at Notre Dame; Dec. 3 vs. UCLA
Texas (5-0): Mack Brown and company cleared up a lot of doubts by thumping Oklahoma 45-12. In Vince Young the Longhorns have college football's most dynamic quarterback since Michael Vick. What Texas can't do is suffer a letdown and think the season is over. Saturday versus Colorado will be a challenge.
Odds of winning the national title: 2-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Saturday vs. Colorado; Oct. 22 vs. Texas Tech; Nov. 25 at Texas A&M.
Virginia Tech (6-0): What's scary about the Hokies is that they are getting better each week. The defense was already good and now quarterback Marcus Vick is playing with a lot of confidence. Don't be shocked if Virginia Tech is No. 2 ahead of Texas in the first BCS rankings.
Odds of winning the national title: 2-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Oct. 27 vs. Boston College; Nov. 5 vs. Miami; Dec. 3 ACC championship.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
If a couple of teams stumble, these guys are ready to walk in a take a spot in the Rose Bowl.
Georgia (5-0): After Saturday's convincing win at Tennessee, it can be said that every preseason question about the Bulldogs has now been answered. D.J. Shockley gives Georgia a dimension at quarterback that will be tough for opponents to handle. The defense is big and athletic. If the offensive line continues to play like this, Georgia could find itself back in the SEC championship game for the third time in four years.
Odds of winning the national title: 4-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Oct. 29 vs. Florida (Jacksonville), Nov. 12 vs. Auburn; Dec. 3 SEC championship game.
Alabama (5-0): If the Crimson Tide had not lost Tyrone Prothro to injury, their odds would be better. Still, the defense is so good that we expect Alabama to be in the SEC championship game and from there anything can happen.
Odds of winning the national title: 4-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Nov. 19 at Auburn; Dec. 3 SEC championship game.
Penn State (6-0): Lest any doubters remain, the Nittany Lions proved they were back with Saturday night's 17-10 win over Ohio State. The Penn State defense is big and fast. The offense has one of the bright young stars in the game in wide receiver Derrick Williams. But a word of warning to Penn State fans: Beware of Saturday's trip to wounded Michigan.
Odds of winning the national title: 5-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Saturday at Michigan; Nov. 19 at Michigan State.
NEED SOME HELP
These teams are good, but some things are going to have to break in their favor.
Florida State (5-0): The Seminoles will basically have it in cruise control until they go to Florida on Nov. 26. But they are getting better and backup quarterback Xavier Lee is starting to have an impact on the offense.
Odds of winning the national title: 6-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Nov. 26 at Florida.
Notre Dame (4-1): Of all the one-loss teams, Notre Dame seems to have the best shot of getting into position to play for the national title. Of course, this is all predicated on the Fighting Irish finding a way to beat No. 1 USC this Saturday in South Bend, Ind. Beat USC, and Notre Dame will very likely finish 10-1 and wait for the luck of the Irish.
Odds of winning the national title: 7-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Saturday vs. USC.
UCLA (5-0): The Bruins deserve mention here because they found a way to come back and beat No. 10 California 47-40 on Saturday night. The next big challenge on the UCLA schedule is Nov. 12 when Arizona State comes to the Rose Bowl. The Bruins are a very long shot, but have made great strides in the second year under Karl Dorrell.
Odds of winning the national title: 10-1.
Potential stumbling blocks: Nov. 12 vs. Arizona State; Dec. 3 at USC.
Poll notes
***After beating Ohio State, Penn State is back in the Associated Press Top 10 at No. 8. It is the Nittany Lions' highest ranking since it was No. 6 in 1999.
***USC is No. 1 for the 25th straight week, which is a record.
***After beating Oklahoma, Texas received one more first place vote (7) on Sunday than it did a week ago.
***Ohio State fell out of the No. 6 spot and was replaced by Alabama. So the ACC has poll positions 3 and 4 (Virginia Tech, Florida State) while the SEC has No. 5 and 6 (Georgia and Alabama).
***Notre Dame (4-1) is back in the Top 10 at No. 9 heading into Saturday's showdown with No. 1 USC.
***Michigan (3-3) fell out of the rankings, probably for good this season, after a 23-20 loss to Minnesota.
Upon further review
***You don't tug on Superman's cape. Virginia's Brad Butler made the mistake of throwing a blindside chop block on Mathias Kiwanuka, the All-America defensive end at Boston College. All that did was make the BC offensive line mad. You don't want to do that. Virginia led 14-7 when the incident occurred. The Eagles' O-line took over and ran over the Cavaliers 21-3 in the final 27 minutes of the game.
***Lost in the excitement of Northwestern's 51-48 win over Wisconsin was a truly remarkable performance by Badger running back Brian Calhoun. He became the first player school history to rush for over 100 yards (23 carries, 123 yards) and have over 100 yards of receiving (11 catches, 128 yards) in the same game.
***There have been way too many "firsts" for Nebraska since Bill Callahan brought the West Coast offense to Lincoln. The latest: Saturday's 34-31 loss to Texas Tech was the first Homecoming game the Cornhuskers have dropped since 1968
***Don't look now, but Central Florida has won its third straight game after beating Memphis 38-17. The Golden Knights are only the third team in the past 55 yards to win three straight games after going winless the season before. The others were South Carolina (2000) and Boston College (1979)
By the numbers
8: Consecutive games won by Penn State. That's the nation's longest winning streak behind No. 1 USC (27) and No. 2 Texas (12).
172.4: Average number of all-purpose yards per game by UCLA's Maurice Drew. Drew had 299 all-purpose yards in Saturday night's 47-40 win over Washington.
107-9: Miami's record against unranked teams since 1990. The Hurricanes demolished Duke 52-7 on Saturday.
0-37: Baylor's record in Big 12 road games until Saturday's 23-13 win at Iowa State.
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