Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

#81
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

An IQ test :LMAO.

Why would we need a test when we can just read what you write/believe?
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
#82
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

It's truly scary that it escapes people that scoring a run with an out by having a man on third with less than two outs is sometimes a good deal. Why waste one of your 27 outs to score a run? ::LMAO::
Because A) you can score runs without sacrificing outs, maybe even scoring multiple runs and B) do you the success rate of getting a runner home from third with less than 2 outs? Hint, it's not 100%. I would gladly trade an out for a run and win every game 27-10, but it doesn't work like that.


Event ... Run Value

Home run 1.397
Triple 1.070
Double .776
Error .508
Single .475
Interference .392
Hit by pitch .352
Non-intentional walk .323
Passed ball .269
Wild pitch .266
Balk .264
Intentional walk .179
Stolen base .175
Defensive indifference .120
Bunt .042

Sac bunt -.096
Pickoff -.281
Out -.299
Strikeout -.301
Caught stealing -.467
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
#83
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Oh my god. I knew you would fall right into that trap. Hook line and sinker. I knew you would go to the after the fact results card!!! And you did. Comical. Not sure what is funnier that you walked right into the trap, or that you are that comically stupid to think the result of a situation is more important than making the right play. This is a fun game. Winning never gets old.
This. You don't have the privilege of knowing the result before making a decision, therefore you have to make the decision based on what has historically - over millions of data points - gives your team the highest probability of winning. This is almost never sacrifice bunting.
 
#84
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

The exact amount varies based on run environment, but in general, sac bunting runners on 1st and 2nd with 0 outs gives up about 0.1 runs of expectation. The chance of scoring exactly 1 or exactly 2 runs is increased while the chance of having a bigger inning is decreased. If exactly 2 runs are needed, like a 9th or extra inning scenario, bunting might be correct, but outside of those situations, there's no reason to sacrifice 0.1 runs of expectation just to increase the chance of scoring exactly 1 or 2, unless the batter is a really terrible hitter.
And that's assuming the bunt is always successful, which people always for some reason tend to assume in discussions like this. The runners on 1st-2nd scenario has to be the one where chances of success are lowest because of the forceout at third.
 
#85
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Tim you have any stats how many times a guy scores from first with no outs compared to someone who is on 2nd with one out?

Just wondering if somehow the sac worked everytime flawlessly what the scoring differential would be
 
#87
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Anyone reading this discussion who hasn't done so already should really read "the Book" by Tango et al, as all this stuff is discussed in there with tons of historic data to support the claims. Here are simple run expectancy charts for different scoring environments.

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

You also need to use run frequency charts (Tango has those on his site too) for situations where you need exactly 1 run or 2 runs, and then the more advanced discussion looks at win probability for the two scenarios combined with the chance of the bunt being successful to establish the breakeven bunt rate, which in some cases is 100%, meaning you'd be wrong to sac bunt even if you knew it would be successful 100% of the time. If you search Google for sacrifice bunt run expectancy or similar terms, you'll find more stuff.
 
#88
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Hmm ... why such a big difference between the Pickoff and a Caught Stealing?
I never noticed that difference before, but if I had to guess it could be because most pickoffs occur with a runner on 1st whereas runners can be caught stealing 3rd, and the penalty for being caught stealing 3rd is greater due to losing a runner from 2nd rather than 1st. Just a guess though.

And yeah, 1st and 2nd sac bunts are successful something like 6-8% of the time less often than ones with just a runner on 1st, although OTOH, not included are the good things that can happen from a sac bunt that aren't "successful," i.e. errors or the batter reaches base.
 

royalfan

EOG Dedicated
#89
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

The pickoff thing is odd. Would like to hear Tim's explanation if he has one. I wonder how far back the data goes? Is it possible the sample size of the pickoffs is still not big enough in relation to the much more common types of outs, including caught stealing, since pickoffs don't happen all that often? Maybe there are few enough that the stacks are simply rather fluky. Especially when you consider that many pickoffs are ruled a caught stealing when the runner continues to 2nd. That one baffles me.
 
#90
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

I think the Pickoff number has to be wrong. Even a simple out is rated as costing the team more and that can't be right.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#91
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

I think the Pickoff number has to be wrong. Even a simple out is rated as costing the team more and that can't be right.
Because a "pick off" doesn't necessarily mean an out. A runner could be picked off and still reach 2nd safely, he isn't credited with a SB. The opposite would be a single doesn't necessarily mean the runner didn't make an out on the play. He could be out stretching to a double, but still credited with a single.
 
#92
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Because a "pick off" doesn't necessarily mean an out. A runner could be picked off and still reach 2nd safely, he isn't credited with a SB. The opposite would be a single doesn't necessarily mean the runner didn't make an out on the play. He could be out stretching to a double, but still credited with a single.
If the runner reaches second on an attempted pickoff I'm pretty sure that wouldn't get counted as a "Pickoff". Plus that's such a rare occurence I highly doubt it would have any significant impact on these numbers anyway.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#94
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

If the runner reaches second on an attempted pickoff I'm pretty sure that wouldn't get counted as a "Pickoff". Plus that's such a rare occurence I highly doubt it would have any significant impact on these numbers anyway.
Now I have to dig........it's much higher than you think. I've had this conversation before. And, exactly what would an official scorer attribute the runner making it to 2nd base in that situation? He has to call it something, and there's no error on the play.
 

royalfan

EOG Dedicated
#96
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

If there is no error on the play and the runner reaches 2nd it is a stolen base. Certainly not a pickoff.

Now I have to dig........it's much higher than you think. I've had this conversation before. And, exactly what would an official scorer attribute the runner making it to 2nd base in that situation? He has to call it something, and there's no error on the play.
 
#97
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

I thought that as well. I mean what if in the rundown he doesn't get 2nd but returns safely to 1st? Is he "picked off" in that situation as well? I'm not going to swear on it but I'd think to be officially picked off there has to be an out registered.
 

royalfan

EOG Dedicated
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Also, there is no caught stealing and pickoff at the same time. If runner motions towards 2nd when the pitcher goes to first and is then gunned down by the 1st basemen to 2nd, it is a caught stealing, not a pickoff, even though we know he was essentially picked off, just not in the scorebook. To be a pickoff, the runner has to be tagged out at the base he is leading off from, with no attempt to advance to the next base.
 
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Not picked off in that instance Pat.

Yeah, don't think you're picked off in either instance. This happens to Upton (he gets safely to 2nd after getting "picked off") on a fairly regular basis and they credit him with a stolen base. It happened in the last 7 or 8 games in fact, I was watching. When stealing he sometimes goes at first move by the pitcher, with his speed even if he's coming to first he still has a decent chance to get in safely to 2nd. We're drifting off the conversation though, I think most agree on this point.
 

royalfan

EOG Dedicated
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Yeah back to the regularly scheduled Chessman not having a clue about when to sac bunt and how bad of a play it typically is.
 
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

The pickoff thing is odd. Would like to hear Tim's explanation if he has one. I wonder how far back the data goes? Is it possible the sample size of the pickoffs is still not big enough in relation to the much more common types of outs, including caught stealing, since pickoffs don't happen all that often?
Retrosheet play by play data goes back to about 1954. I think they are missing full play by play data for certain games between maybe 1954-1972 or so, but they have a lot of them. Just from 1972 to the present, there's been close to 90,000 games played or so.
 
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Now I have to dig........it's much higher than you think. I've had this conversation before. And, exactly what would an official scorer attribute the runner making it to 2nd base in that situation? He has to call it something, and there's no error on the play.
Yeah, pickoffs that result in the runner reaching second happen fairly often where player breaks for second and the throw from the 1B is late, but I thought runners were given credit for a stolen base for advancing to second on a failed pickoff.
 
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

A quick google got me this......but I'm trying to dig up something more.

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/run_value_of_the_cs_and_pk/
Yeah that looks like the best description and the comments are pretty descriptive too. I tried Google earlier and couldn't find that, guess I should have been old fashioned and just gotten out my copy of "The Book."

Also, I didn't know you could be caught stealing without an out recorded, from the comments: "In 2002, there were 1282 CS, including following pickoffs, strikeouts, and walks. 74 of those had the runner safely reach base. So, that?s about 6%." That seems awfully high for times when the runner's "caught stealing" but the fielder drops the ball while tagging him.
 
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Yeah, pickoffs that result in the runner reaching second happen fairly often where player breaks for second and the throw from the 1B is late, but I thought runners were given credit for a stolen base for advancing to second on a failed pickoff.

They do get credit for a SB as long as there wasn't an error involved.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Yeah that looks like the best description and the comments are pretty descriptive too. I tried Google earlier and couldn't find that, guess I should have been old fashioned and just gotten out my copy of "The Book."

Also, I didn't know you could be caught stealing without an out recorded, from the comments: "In 2002, there were 1282 CS, including following pickoffs, strikeouts, and walks. 74 of those had the runner safely reach base. So, that?s about 6%." That seems awfully high for times when the runner's "caught stealing" but the fielder drops the ball while tagging him.
I remember having this conversation before, but couldn't find it. I did find another source different from above that have similar #'s regarding PO's and CS's to IT and The Book. "Pick off" is not an official term for score keeping. For the purpose of Run Value evaluation I think it is important they are categorized differently.
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
Re: Hey Joe Girardi, there's this new play called a sacrifice bunt!

Those numbers were from Tango, I should have cited him in the original post. I am sure it's mentioned in the Book, but my copy is not at school with me.
 
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