How much do fans contribute to home-field advantage?

John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
One beauty of replay review in Major League Baseball: First-base umpires stopped selling calls.

Back in the day, a first-base ump would emphatically signal "SAFE" or "OUT" to show confidence in his call.

No need for the histrionics now with the advent of replay review.

The umps today look foolish if they sell a call only to be proven wrong a couple of minutes later.
 
Last edited:
jimmythegreek

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Going to be interesting to compare and insight the win loss home and away records in a 60 game season. Teams like Baltimore, San Diego, Toronto and others will certainly face little or no pressure away from their venues.
 
TonyMar

TonyMar

EOG Dedicated
Will be interesting watching MLB broadcasts, the field mic’s should allow viewers to hear things like never before.

Has the potential to make for a more interesting viewing experience.
 
raycabino

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Outside of NCAA hoops where I think fans can actually make a difference at times, I don't think fans make much if a difference in the other sports in general outside of a little referee bias.
 
raycabino

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Patrick McIrish said:
Being "home" will help without doing the travel......

And in hoops I believe it's an asset to be shooting at your own goals.
Click to expand...
In general I think the biggest reason there is homecourt/homefield advantage is familiarity with your surroundings. Background for shooting baskets, surface for soccer, football etc. I think it's one of the reasons if you look at data that home field advantage is bigger in the 1st half than 2nd half. As the game goes on the road team is now getting more familiar with the surroundings is the logic I believe to be behind the data..
 
Bucky

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
Games without fans are just "Practice". You are talking about "Practice". I have better things to do than watch "Practice"!
 
B

billysink

EOG Dedicated
raycabino said:
In general I think the biggest reason there is homecourt/homefield advantage is familiarity with your surroundings. Background for shooting baskets, surface for soccer, football etc. I think it's one of the reasons if you look at data that home field advantage is bigger in the 1st half than 2nd half. As the game goes on the road team is now getting more familiar with the surroundings is the logic I believe to be behind the data..
Click to expand...

We used to play moneyball at Kronk teams come from everywhere we give them the end with the window.

If the day was bright visiting team had to bring it in to score nothing from outside.

Still the best HCA I ever seen.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
John Kelly said:
One beauty of replay review in Major League Baseball: First-base umpires stopped selling calls.

Back in the day, a first-base ump would emphatically signal "SAFE" or "OUT" to show confidence in his call.

No need for the histrionics now with the advent of replay review.

The umps look foolish if they sell a call and then are proven wrong a couple of minutes later.
Click to expand...

BINGO!

For HS Hoops we were told that very early on: Sell the Sizzle NOT the Steak

If a play is a 50/50 call you have to "sell" the call. Come out emphatically...............CHARGE! Doing this means you are 100% sure of the call (even if you are not) to all watching. If you come out "weak" now people are going to question if you were right, or not. If the play is super obvious and everyone in the place knows what the call will be you don't have to be as adamant about it. If the ball is clearly sitting on the rim and gets swatted away by the defender you don't have to be as forceful about counting the basket (And in this case the call is NOT "Goaltending" but rather "Basket Interference).

Back when I started almost no games were recorded, either by the school or parents. Now they all are so they can go back and watch the play later on. But later on means after the game or the next day, not right then and there. Now some HIGH level games are on TV but those are very few and even then replay is not an option.

When the Premier League said they were coming back I said I felt there would be 2 sides most heavily affected - 2 teams near the bottom of the table - that rely on the home folks for motivation: Norwich and Bournemouth. Norwich lost both PL games by 1-0 and 3-0 scores and lost to Man U in the FA Cup Semis 2-1 in Extra Time. If fans were at the game Norwich has might not have lost the 1-0 game and might have fared better against Man U...............Bournemouth has a 2-0 and 4-1 loss at home so far and in each game has ONE SOG. You are not going to win many games with ONE SOG. Bournemouth looks to be headed down and this lack of fans at the game is a big reason why.

Once the NFL starts up (IF they do) we will not see packed stands. The HFA at KC will be far less since the crowd noise will be minimal. Same with Seattle, NE, GB and Denver. If HFA is worth 3 in the NFL in those cities it might be worth 3.5-4. But without fans it will be worth less.

Baseball should be very interesting
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Small sample size with these games so far. The break could have impacted some of the dynamics for each team, with some guys getting healthy, some teams changing tactics a bit and frankly some teams coming back with less motivation than others to get results. Some players know they have a set situation, others playing to get noticed by other clubs, others trying to earn playing time, etc. Point being it was a time when even if there was no stoppage there might have been some changes such as Norwich as a club realizing they had little hope to get out of relegation so a lot of things mentally change for the players and the managers.

It was interesting the KBO showed some home advantage still, although it wasn't clear to me if they adjusted for potential strategic changes from batting later. But home teams scoring more runs and hitting better.
 
M

MonkeyF0cker

EOG Dedicated
raycabino said:
In general I think the biggest reason there is homecourt/homefield advantage is familiarity with your surroundings. Background for shooting baskets, surface for soccer, football etc. I think it's one of the reasons if you look at data that home field advantage is bigger in the 1st half than 2nd half. As the game goes on the road team is now getting more familiar with the surroundings is the logic I believe to be behind the data..
Click to expand...

Baseball is especially like that. Every ballpark is a different layout. Some parks play better to left handed batters or right handed batters. So if you're the Yankees GM, you don't want a lineup full of RH hitters and for that matter, you don't want a bullpen full of RH pitchers either. If you're the Rockies GM, you don't want a bunch of offspeed pitchers. If you're the Mets, you don't want a bunch of slow outfielders, etc.
 
I

IWishIWasAPro

EOG Master
We're fucked any way you slice it. 2 weeks of great play will automatically propel you to the next level and damage other teams in your division. I really dont give a shit and hope a team like the Orioles or Marlins wins it all.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Joey Chestnut was on VSIN with Mitch and Paulie Howard today and when they told him his total for the upcoming contest, he acknowledged that the lack of crowd might have some effect. He also expressed concern that being in an air conditioned room, likely will push down the hot dog temp to room temp and could have a negative impact.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
John Kelly said:
Crowd noise is critical at some NFL stadiums.

Think Seattle or Kansas City.
Click to expand...

And any dome. I remember being at a Colts game against the Jags in the old RCA Dome. The Colts had the Jags pinned back at their 1 yard line. I was sitting in that end zone and it was deafening. The Jags came out, Brunell, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith, McCardell with a real swagger. I didn't know how the Jags could hear Brunell's signals. First play Taylor busts it right thru the Colt D for about a 40 yard run and in seconds it went from deafening to complete silence.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Remember the return of the Saints to the Superdome in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina?

Not sure the details off the top of my head, but I assume home-field advantage for the return game was underestimated by the betting public.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Just looked it up: Saints beat the Falcons, 23-3, on September 25, 2006.

Steve Gleason famously blocked a punt which produced the first New Orleans touchdown of the game.

The Saints closed a 4-point home underdog.
 
TheGuesser

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
John Kelly said:
Crowd noise is critical at some NFL stadiums.

Think Seattle or Kansas City.
Click to expand...
Ironically KC was 7-1 on the Road, 5-3 at home, and Seattle was also 7-1 on road, 4-4 at home last year.
One thing this year is that the Chargers will no longer be the "Road" team for all 16 games, with no fans.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
TheGuesser said:
Ironically KC was 7-1 on the Road, 5-3 at home, and Seattle was also 7-1 on road, 4-4 at home last year.
One thing this year is that the Chargers will no longer be the "Road" team for all 16 games, with no fans.
Click to expand...

WRONG! IF fans are allowed into the game................

They most definitely will be the "road" team for "home" games with: KC (1st home game - 2nd game of the season), Raiders (This game will sound like it is being played in Vegas since LA still has a ton of Raiders fans here and many will make the drive from Vegas if they live there), Patriots (Keep in mind the Pats stay in LA and play the Rams 4 days later so if fans are allowed to attend we might see many Pats fans fly out for BOTH games - fly out Saturday and catch a redeye home Thursday night after the game or stay until Friday), Denver (The ONLY reason this game might not sound like it is being in Denver is the fact this game is played Dec 26)

They will not be the "road" team for "home" games with: Carolina, Jets (Maybe - this might be 50/50 but if more NYJ it would not shock me at all), Jags, Atlanta (maybe)

I cannot emphasize enough how much WE DO NOT WANT THE CHARGERS HERE IN LA!
 
TheGuesser

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
winkyduck said:
WRONG! IF fans are allowed into the game................

They most definitely will be the "road" team for "home" games with: KC (1st home game - 2nd game of the season), Raiders (This game will sound like it is being played in Vegas since LA still has a ton of Raiders fans here and many will make the drive from Vegas if they live there), Patriots (Keep in mind the Pats stay in LA and play the Rams 4 days later so if fans are allowed to attend we might see many Pats fans fly out for BOTH games - fly out Saturday and catch a redeye home Thursday night after the game or stay until Friday), Denver (The ONLY reason this game might not sound like it is being in Denver is the fact this game is played Dec 26)

They will not be the "road" team for "home" games with: Carolina, Jets (Maybe - this might be 50/50 but if more NYJ it would not shock me at all), Jags, Atlanta (maybe)

I cannot emphasize enough how much WE DO NOT WANT THE CHARGERS HERE IN LA!
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm assuming none, or very limited fans. If the NFL allows cardboard fans, the Chargers should paint them all in the other teams Jerseys for authenticity, LOL.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
TheGuesser said:
Yeah, I'm assuming none, or very limited fans. If the NFL allows cardboard fans, the Chargers should paint them all in the other teams Jerseys for authenticity, LOL.
Click to expand...

Chargers will greatly benefit from no fans at their "home" games because for them it means more of a HFA since the place won't be packed with fans of the other team. The last game they played in Carson was against Da Raiduhs and it sounded like a Raiduhs home game because it must have been 80% Raiduhs fans
 
GameBred

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
John Kelly said:
Do Empty Stadiums Affect Outcomes?

Here's a piece from today's edition of The New York Times:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/sports/soccer/soccer-without-fans-germany-data.html
Click to expand...

We have prehistoric genes operating in a post-modern world, of course fans contribute to HFA, how could they not?

In Sports Trading, not only is it important to understand the probability mathematics of Fermat and Pascal but also the psychology, biology and neurology of risk. If you're into that kinda shit and I'm all in, you run across alot of interesting things. One of those things is elevated testosterone levels in players at home as to away.

Throw in unconscious referee bias, familiarity, travel, etc and you get your HFA Cocktail.

How much do fans contribute? I don't know but they certainly are a factor on some level. Afterall, we're only human.... well. some of us :)
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
HFA cocktail, love it.

My favorite angle in general: To bet road teams in non-threatening environments.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
winkyduck said:
WRONG! IF fans are allowed into the game................

They most definitely will be the "road" team for "home" games with: KC (1st home game - 2nd game of the season), Raiders (This game will sound like it is being played in Vegas since LA still has a ton of Raiders fans here and many will make the drive from Vegas if they live there), Patriots (Keep in mind the Pats stay in LA and play the Rams 4 days later so if fans are allowed to attend we might see many Pats fans fly out for BOTH games - fly out Saturday and catch a redeye home Thursday night after the game or stay until Friday), Denver (The ONLY reason this game might not sound like it is being in Denver is the fact this game is played Dec 26)

They will not be the "road" team for "home" games with: Carolina, Jets (Maybe - this might be 50/50 but if more NYJ it would not shock me at all), Jags, Atlanta (maybe)

I cannot emphasize enough how much WE DO NOT WANT THE CHARGERS HERE IN LA!
Click to expand...

That's funny. Chargers in OC would have made more sense, then you'd really be pissed.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
WildBill said:
That's funny. Chargers in OC would have made more sense, then you'd really be pissed.
Click to expand...

Actually - no. It wouldn't have made sense at all. Chargers wanted the LA Name/Money - just like the Angels. I know the Angels play in OC but the LA name has made them a ton more money. And where in OC would they play? The way it is now they share a gorgeous building in LA.

Chargers should have moved to Vegas?

Maybe. Raiders were the perfect fit since they have a very large fan base still in the LA area. That fan base still commuted to Oakland for games. Now these same fans can drive to the games. It used to be on Sunday's traffic TO Vegas was very light. Now (or when things get back to normal). Now traffic on the N-15 on Raiders game days will be very busy and the drive home will be even worse. Raiders were the only team that could have moved to Vegas and kept their fan base. I have friends in SD who are Chargers fans. Or were. Not any more. Once the Chargers left all fans left them - no matter where they went.

What you will see (when things get back to normal) is Raiders' home games having a massive away fans presence, You will see fans of, say, the Bills, fly to Vegas to see th egame but come out on a Thursday (or earlier) and stay until Monday.

The 2023 SB is scheduled for New Orleans. It will be moved because of a conflict with Mardi Gras starting 2 days later. This SB will either go to Tamp - if this year's SB gets cancelled or not many can attend OR Vegas. Vegas WILL host a SB before the end of this decade and will be in a regular rotation along with the Rams new place, New Orleans, Jerry's World, Miami and then every so often something like Minneapolis.

Although as I said in my blog this week I believe Daniel Snyder will be told: Change your team name and you will get the "cold weather" Super Bowl you have wanted so dearly (and it will be done in the new stadium he wants to build after his lease at FedEx runs out around 2027)
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
winkyduck said:
Actually - no. It wouldn't have made sense at all. Chargers wanted the LA Name/Money - just like the Angels. I know the Angels play in OC but the LA name has made them a ton more money. And where in OC would they play? The way it is now they share a gorgeous building in LA.

Chargers should have moved to Vegas?

Maybe. Raiders were the perfect fit since they have a very large fan base still in the LA area. That fan base still commuted to Oakland for games. Now these same fans can drive to the games. It used to be on Sunday's traffic TO Vegas was very light. Now (or when things get back to normal). Now traffic on the N-15 on Raiders game days will be very busy and the drive home will be even worse. Raiders were the only team that could have moved to Vegas and kept their fan base. I have friends in SD who are Chargers fans. Or were. Not any more. Once the Chargers left all fans left them - no matter where they went.

What you will see (when things get back to normal) is Raiders' home games having a massive away fans presence, You will see fans of, say, the Bills, fly to Vegas to see th egame but come out on a Thursday (or earlier) and stay until Monday.

The 2023 SB is scheduled for New Orleans. It will be moved because of a conflict with Mardi Gras starting 2 days later. This SB will either go to Tamp - if this year's SB gets cancelled or not many can attend OR Vegas. Vegas WILL host a SB before the end of this decade and will be in a regular rotation along with the Rams new place, New Orleans, Jerry's World, Miami and then every so often something like Minneapolis.

Although as I said in my blog this week I believe Daniel Snyder will be told: Change your team name and you will get the "cold weather" Super Bowl you have wanted so dearly (and it will be done in the new stadium he wants to build after his lease at FedEx runs out around 2027)
Click to expand...

I said 15 years ago they should build a stadium in south OC so SD Charger fans are still an hour or so drive away and they could tap into the 3 million plus in OC and some LA County people. That was just recognizing SD was not going to see a new stadium. They could have called them the California Chargers or whatever else they thought worked. I don't think the LA name really does anything for an NFL team and silly Artie with his insistence on LA hasn't seen a bit of change to his support or team valuation.

Once the LA stadium got going and you knew the Rams would be there, it was stupid to go with two teams. The LA market without the NFL wasn't a big loss for the NFL, they just needed one team. The move to Carson was an utter disgrace, I still don't get that one. The Raiders didn't move until the new stadium was done, why Spanos had to quickly bail out of the only city that supported them is beyond me. I have no idea what's next, but feels like the Chargers will be first on the list to move to an international market whenever the NFL decides to do it.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The second-largest media market in the United States did not host an NFL team from 1995-2015.

Hard to believe.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
John Kelly said:
The second-largest media market in the United States did not host an NFL team from 1995-2015.

Hard to believe.
Click to expand...

Yes it did

USC was our "Pro" sports team. Look at the attendance figures and media coverage of the program. We had an NFL team in the area. They just played on Saturday not Sundays
 
F

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
John Kelly said:
The second-largest media market in the United States did not host an NFL team from 1995-2015.

Hard to believe.
Click to expand...

Not really. It's not a pro football town. Rams drew abysmally in the 1980's and 1990's in Anaheim before moving to St. Louis in 1995. Chargers had a home field disadvantage at their small soccer stadium in Carson, CA, as the opposing teams bought almost all the tickets. Many fans at the LA Coliseum for Rams games are from out of town.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Foresthill said:
Not really. It's not a pro football town. Rams drew abysmally in the 1980's and 1990's in Anaheim before moving to St. Louis in 1995. Chargers had a home field disadvantage at their small soccer stadium in Carson, CA, as the opposing teams bought almost all the tickets. Many fans at the LA Coliseum for Rams games are from out of town.
Click to expand...

That is because it was tough to get in for less than $250 and probably $400+ if you wanted a seat between the end zone lines
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
WildBill said:
I said 15 years ago they should build a stadium in south OC so SD Charger fans are still an hour or so drive away and they could tap into the 3 million plus in OC and some LA County people. That was just recognizing SD was not going to see a new stadium. They could have called them the California Chargers or whatever else they thought worked. I don't think the LA name really does anything for an NFL team and silly Artie with his insistence on LA hasn't seen a bit of change to his support or team valuation.

Once the LA stadium got going and you knew the Rams would be there, it was stupid to go with two teams. The LA market without the NFL wasn't a big loss for the NFL, they just needed one team. The move to Carson was an utter disgrace, I still don't get that one. The Raiders didn't move until the new stadium was done, why Spanos had to quickly bail out of the only city that supported them is beyond me. I have no idea what's next, but feels like the Chargers will be first on the list to move to an international market whenever the NFL decides to do it.
Click to expand...

IF they were going to build a stadium in OC I think the best place would be around the "El Toro-Y" when the 5/405 meet (Weird fact: The 405 in SoCal runs between the 5 - in the Irvine area to the South and near Magic Mountain to the North......about 80-ish miles away). Put it there where there was (and still is ) plenty of open land. Put it near the Irvine Spectrum and it would be, as you said, about 70 miles from Downtown SD.

When the stadium was being built there was always going to be 2 teams to help defray the cost of the stadium. Chargers had no choice but to move to LA. If they stay in SD and another team comes to L - especially if the Raiders - the Chargers are done in SD. No way the area could support THREE teams within 100-miles of each other. The SD market is different fron LA but no way the area could support 3 teams so SD had to move.

If anyone moves overseas the first guess would be the Jags since the owner also owns Fulham (In the PL last season, in the 2nd tier now but should make the 4-team playoff for the right to get back to the PL in 2020-21). But who knows?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top