Is there any market that gets manipulated more than CBB?

Jb777

EOG Dedicated
#1
I almost feel compelled to fade all the early moves. For anyone paying attention I'm sure you've noticed the manipulation happening on a daily basis recently. Can't help but wonder if alot of the big groups are in on it together or if it's something they all keep to themselves.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#2
lets chart for a few days what moves you seeing already that come to your attention as manipulated? sides or totals or both
 

Jb777

EOG Dedicated
#3
lets chart for a few days what moves you seeing already that come to your attention as manipulated? sides or totals or both
I havent' been at my desk much today, on the road Mr. TryTryTry but I will be back in the saddle in a few hours. One I noticed without really looking into it is 557/558 VCU/Texas I would expect that 10 to move south at some point.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#5
Good information was received about four weeks ago involving a college hoop game between Loyola-Marymount-UNLV.

Total was 149 when the info was made public about two hours before tipoff.

The information supported an UNDER wager.

Someone (or some group?) tried to manipulate the total at CRIS, Pinnacle and Westgate.

Pushed the total up to 150.5 and 151, the opposite way they wanted to play.

Not many other sports books followed the move before under money flooded the market.

I saw a total as low as 146.5 close to game time.

Final score: Loyola Marymount 61 UNLV 50.
 
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ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
#8
Good information was received about four weeks ago involving a college hoop game between Loyola-Marymount-UNLV.

Total was 149 when the info was made public about two hours before tipoff.

The information supported an UNDER wager.

Someone (or some group?) tried to manipulate the total at CRIS, Pinnacle and Westgate.

Pushed the total up to 150.5 and 151, the opposite way they wanted to play.

Not many other sports books followed the move before under money flooded the market.

I saw a total as low as 146.5 close to game time.

Final score: Loyola Marymount 61 UNLV 50.
I haven't been watching the CBB market, but that has to be really unusual since most of the screen books seem to move on air if those shops move.
 

Mr. Met

EOG Addicted
#9
I remember RAS' FCS releases were moving 15 points for some games. Probably doesn't take much to phony up 5Dimes FCS openers to come back the other way at another shop...
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#10
I haven't been watching the CBB market, but that has to be really unusual since most of the screen books seem to move on air if those shops move.

It was an unusual case because college football dominated the betting board on November 10th and the college hoop season was just getting started.

The information arrived about two hours before tipoff so I suspect there were not the usual number of eyebals looking at the college hoop card at the time.
 
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BenoitPaire2

EOG Senior Member
#11
Totals moved up to 20 points daily as early as 10-11 years ago.

I wrote a bunch on my Twitter last night about how much the game has changed. It’s crazy to think where we were 10 years ago compared to now.
 

BenoitPaire2

EOG Senior Member
#12
I thought it was worthy so I’ll post what I wrote:

An under the radar note in college basketball: Duggar Ball has really slowed down. APL is the slowest its been since @kenpomeroy started tracking it. Still taking a ton of 3s,but they are pressing much less now.And its working out as they look like a tough team in the Southern

Looking at Duggar’s past #s show how much college basketball has changed in just 5 years. In 2013, VMI was 9th in the country with 69 possessions per game. This year, that would be good for 200th in the country. Times have changed.

In 2013, there were 24 teams averaging under 60 possessions per game game. This year, there are 2 under 64 and 62.1 is the lowest. The days of the true Princeton offense left with the shot clock change.

What does this mean for totals? I miss totals being in the low 100s and betting the unders with confidence. I remember some Princeton games with totals a little below 100. Good times.

It’s probably no coincidence that the coaches who implemented the most extreme versions of Princeton offense aren’t coaching anymore. The game has changed, and the 30 second shot clock takes the advantage away.

Joe Scott was a Princeton disciple. Did well at Air Force and Princeton, and started off well at Denver until the shot clock changed and it was no longer successful. There was a time where Denver was almost unbeatable at home under Scott.

In Scott’s first year at Air Force, they played Majerus and Utah twice when they were still in the mountain west. The two meetings had 47 and 51 possessions. Both games had 80 points. That’s unthinkable now.

Going back to betting totals, the odds 15-20 years ago were so square. The aforementioned 80 point matchup between AF/Utah had a total of 109. There was no way that would hit unless they played 50+ minutes.

Lowest totals Ive found:

- Princeton/Brown 98.5 (2007)

- Princeton/Dartmouth 98.5 (2007)


3Other interesting totals:



3/3/07: VMI/Winthrop had a total of 189.5. Went under by 20+ points

2/24/07: Duquesne/St. Bonnies had a total of 187.5 Went over by 3.5 points (what a goldmine this time was when DUQ switched styles, and books didnt adjust enough).


Fun story... Duquesne was struggling in 2007. Everhart frustrated after loss to Fordham. Week off... decides to switch styles mid season.. You never see this stuff happen, but they needed to change. 5-10 record.. going nowhere.

They decide to press full court, and play uptempo as possible. What happens? They win 5 out of the next 6, and more importantly, go over the total 7 games in a row, and 10 out of the next 11. They ran out of stream and lost last 8 games, including 3 unders in a row

At the time, I was making good $ betting totals (I miss this time). URI played uptempo also, and I knew there was no chance it wouldnt go over. I bet the max several times, and had many friends doing the same. Total went up 10+ points.. closed at 177. Final score? 111-87 EZ$$
 
#15
rules were changed by bad coaches and bilas. it was for affirmative action hires so they could do better and so coach k and Williams could play faster and less likely to get out coached. espn is an extreme left wing outfit, and they wanted dumbshits to watch college basketball, but it has back fired as attendance is down everywhere, every westcoast team attendance is down.
 
#17
and none of the coaches have any guts to play real fast like paul westhead did. many of the purists have quit watching, old white men over 40, but those are the only people that actually were purchasing tickets. now its just friends, family and some students, even less students attend now.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#19
rules were changed by bad coaches and bilas. it was for affirmative action hires so they could do better and so coach k and Williams could play faster and less likely to get out coached. espn is an extreme left wing outfit, and they wanted dumbshits to watch college basketball, but it has back fired as attendance is down everywhere, every westcoast team attendance is down.
How about the fact that some AAU scumbag is in lil’ Johnny’s ear telling him that he’s the next Kevin Durant. Kid believes it and goes to a school that showcases his skills. Notice I left out helping a team win.

Coaching still matters - if the kid is coachable. There may be more Loyola stories because those teams full of 3-4 year starters do well in the tourney. In the end the talent wins out though.
 

BenoitPaire2

EOG Senior Member
#20
Does anyone know how soon before a game that refs are announced? I feel like the amount of fouls called by different refs is crucial, but the ncaa keeps assignments quiet.
 

Sleepy

EOG Dedicated
#21
I remember RAS' FCS releases were moving 15 points for some games. Probably doesn't take much to phony up 5Dimes FCS openers to come back the other way at another shop...
That was done earlier in the year with the 5dimes FCS games. I remember the Davidson / Valparaiso game was moved 26.5 pts. If you have a 5dimes account that is flagged you can move these games 1.5 pts with $24 bets. You can parlay 5-6 together and move all the games you parlay the same 1.5 pts with a $24 bet. Not sure what they were doing but for the first half of the year there was about 10-15 games all be phonied up at 5dimes. Then it just stopped and never happened during the 2nd half of the season.
 
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