I thought it was worthy so I’ll post what I wrote:
An under the radar note in college basketball: Duggar Ball has really slowed down. APL is the slowest its been since @kenpomeroy started tracking it. Still taking a ton of 3s,but they are pressing much less now.And its working out as they look like a tough team in the Southern
Looking at Duggar’s past #s show how much college basketball has changed in just 5 years. In 2013, VMI was 9th in the country with 69 possessions per game. This year, that would be good for 200th in the country. Times have changed.
In 2013, there were 24 teams averaging under 60 possessions per game game. This year, there are 2 under 64 and 62.1 is the lowest. The days of the true Princeton offense left with the shot clock change.
What does this mean for totals? I miss totals being in the low 100s and betting the unders with confidence. I remember some Princeton games with totals a little below 100. Good times.
It’s probably no coincidence that the coaches who implemented the most extreme versions of Princeton offense aren’t coaching anymore. The game has changed, and the 30 second shot clock takes the advantage away.
Joe Scott was a Princeton disciple. Did well at Air Force and Princeton, and started off well at Denver until the shot clock changed and it was no longer successful. There was a time where Denver was almost unbeatable at home under Scott.
In Scott’s first year at Air Force, they played Majerus and Utah twice when they were still in the mountain west. The two meetings had 47 and 51 possessions. Both games had 80 points. That’s unthinkable now.
Going back to betting totals, the odds 15-20 years ago were so square. The aforementioned 80 point matchup between AF/Utah had a total of 109. There was no way that would hit unless they played 50+ minutes.
Lowest totals Ive found:
- Princeton/Brown 98.5 (2007)
- Princeton/Dartmouth 98.5 (2007)
3Other interesting totals:
3/3/07: VMI/Winthrop had a total of 189.5. Went under by 20+ points
2/24/07: Duquesne/St. Bonnies had a total of 187.5 Went over by 3.5 points (what a goldmine this time was when DUQ switched styles, and books didnt adjust enough).
Fun story... Duquesne was struggling in 2007. Everhart frustrated after loss to Fordham. Week off... decides to switch styles mid season.. You never see this stuff happen, but they needed to change. 5-10 record.. going nowhere.
They decide to press full court, and play uptempo as possible. What happens? They win 5 out of the next 6, and more importantly, go over the total 7 games in a row, and 10 out of the next 11. They ran out of stream and lost last 8 games, including 3 unders in a row
At the time, I was making good $ betting totals (I miss this time). URI played uptempo also, and I knew there was no chance it wouldnt go over. I bet the max several times, and had many friends doing the same. Total went up 10+ points.. closed at 177. Final score? 111-87 EZ$$