JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Baylor -26 over Rice:
After a bye week, Baylor (2-0) visits Rice (0-3) continuing non conference play. The Bears on the strength of Charlie Brewer (12/16 163 3 TD) and 5 rushing scores from as many RB's throttled UTSA 63-14 a couple of weeks back at McLane Stadium. Baylor rushed for 368 yards and nearly 10 yards per carry led by Gerry Bohanon (7-93 13.3 1 TD) and Trestan Ebner (4-76 19.0). Denzel Mims (7-101) was the proud recipient of all of Brewer's TD passes as the Bears built a 35-0 halftime lead and cruised all game long. Baylor's defense also sacked Roadrunners QB Frank Harris (15/24 93) 5 times, including 2 from Clay Johnston, and forced 3 turnovers. No UTSA receiver amassed more than 23 yards, and Sincere McCormick (12-87 7.3 2 TD) provided all the offense. Last week Rice was obliterated by Texas 48-13 thanks to 509 total Longhorns offense and Sam Ehlinger (23/27 279 3 TD). 2 of them to Jake Smith (6-75). Keanotay Smith (13-74 5.7 2 TD) led a balanced rushing attack, while the defense sacked Tom Stewart (12/23 179 2 TD) 4 times. Texas came out a lot more aggressive than Rice's more laid back conservative tempo and failed to get the job done on defense.

Brewer (33/47 362 6 TD) is off to quite the efficient start through the first 2 games of this, his junior season. He's also fortunate to lean on a solid offensive line and a rushing attack that has produced 9 TD's thus far, and a dual headed monster featuring Bohanon (13-177 13.6 1 TD) and John Lovett (17-177 10.4 1 TD). Denzel Mims (12-147 3 TD) and RJ Sneed (8-97 2 TD) are a productive combination that thrive as Brewer's top 2 targets, making this offense look extremely versatile and potentially dangerous once Big 12 play does commence. That's not very good news for this Rice defense, which has allowed nearly 35 points per contest while Baylor outputted nearly 60 per thus far. After an inspired showing against Army which nearly resulted in a surprising upset, much of the focus has reverted back to previous seasons where the Owls have been unable to stop anybody. The stoppage of the run will be especially challenging, as DT Myles Adams and LB Antonio Montero will have their hands full. Rice allows 201 yards on the ground per contest, ranking just 112th in the nation while Baylor's rushing attack produces 318 and is sure to maintain or improve on their top 5 ranking. The offensive line will make holes big enough to drive trucks through, so I fully expect these running backs to be in for a big game.

If calling this Owls offense conservative is an understatement, so be it. Rice has scored just 16 points per game, and their average of 283 is 127th overall. That's not going to get it done against this Baylor bunch. Granted, the Bears' two opponents have been considered cupcakes early in SFA and UTSA, but there's no real further test that comes into play here. Stewart (31/53 364 3 TD) like Brewer, hasn't put up earth shattering numbers, but the pace of Rice is more methodical and in don't break mode. Aston Walter (42-170 4.0 1 TD) has been just mediocre to date and Stewart doesn't have much scrambling ability despite rushing for a score himself. Austin Trammell (16-204 1 TD) and Brad Rozner (8-150 1 TD) do have playmaking ability and have produced some key receptions in order to move along the Owl's offense, but again we stress even keeping up toe to toe with Baylor won't be desired nor likely according to Mike Bloomgren's style. It remains to be seen how efficient Baylor's defense is due to not much testing against early, Matt Rhule has gone to a three man front that has so far paid dividends. Junior Blake Lynch is versatile showing the ability to play both DT and DE. Johnston leads a veteran LB bunch and there's plenty of speed in the secondary to contend with for the opposition. The Bears have been especially instrumental against the pass giving up just 260 total passing yards, 8th in the country.

The on the field contrast between these two teams heavily favors high powered Baylor, who will look to overpower Rice with a high powered rushing attack and Brewer who continues to show maturity and poise in the pocket. As long as he doesn't make mistakes, Rice will be in for another long afternoon. You can only prosper for so long keeping Baylor's offense off the field with not providing much of a contrasting punch, and I see the Bears cruising to another lopsided victory even as a near 4 TD favorite deep in the heart of Houston.

I'll have a second week 4 play up shortly.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(19) Washington St -18.5 over UCLA:
The Cougars (3-0) open up Pac12 play home to UCLA (0-3) late Saturday night from Martin Stadium. WSU avoided a prime upset last week as they held off Houston 31-24 at NRG Stadium to remain undefeated and nationally ranked. Anthony Gordon (36/48 440 3 TD 1 INT) recorded his third straight game of 400+ yards passing giving the Cougs the lead for good when he hooked up with Dezmon Palmon (2-52 1 TD) on a 39 yard scoring toss midway through the 3rd quarter. Easop Winston Jr (5-76 1 TD) and Travell Harris (3-29 1 TD) also caught TD passes in a contest that ended up a lot closer than anticipated. WSU continued their one dimensional dominance as the Cougars were limited to just 49 yards on the ground, 40 of them on 9 carries (4.4) including a one yard TD run by Max Borghi which evened the score at 14 just after halftime. Washington St's defense forced 3 turnovers and came to play in the second half holding D'Eriq King (13/24 128 1 TD) in check. King did keep his Cougs in the game rushing for 94 yards on 17 carries (5.5) of his own and 2 TD's, including a score that cut the final deficit to 7 inside 2:00. Washington St outgained Houston 489-367 and UH fell to 1-2. UCLA continued their dismal season falling to 0-3 overall after getting crushed by #5 Oklahoma 48-14. Jalen Hurts (15/20 289 3 TD) continued his resurgence as OU's starter also rushing for 150 yards on 14 carries (10.7) and a ground score. The Sooners outgained the Bruins 611-311, recorded 5 sacks of Dorian Thompson Robinson (15/26 201 2 TD 2 INT) and forced 4 turnovers. Charleston Rambo (5-116 2 TD) led the charge as Oklahoma raced out to a 34-7 halftime lead. The Bruins gained just 110 yards rushing and only got to Hurts once all game long.

The greatest show in the air leads the nation in passing averaging 476 such yards per contest as Gordon (96/122 1324 12 TD 2 INT) has the early grasp on the Heisman Trophy chase. The senior is currently receiving plenty of attention and consideration early on as this Cougar offense all season will be a force to reckon with. Of course it never hurts when you have a three headed monster in the receiving core. Brandon Arconado (23-308 1 TD) is the top target with plenty of big game speed and agility making things tough on opposing secondaries. Easop Winston Jr (16-234 4 TD) has gotten free behind opposing corners and is a formidable ally in the flat, over the middle and to close corners. Dezmon Patom (13-227 2 TD) is featured as versatile as they come especially on third down conversions. In the backfield, when they do run, Borghi (26/202 7.8 4 TD) is a one man show making it easy for Gordon to lean on. WSU has averaged nearly 60 points per contest and seems primed to match or exceed those numbers against a UCLA defense that has shown little improvement combined with disappointing losses yielding nearly 32 points per contest. Jerry Azzinaro's defense played well enough to win against the likes of Cincinnati and San Diego St but missed out on potential game changing opportunities and stupid mistakes drawing penalties leading to opposing second chances. They lack a definitive pass rush and are going to have to put pressure on Gordon in order to make plays. Those days of the 3-4 defense at Oregon from 2009-2012 seemingly are years behind as their efforts generated the most turnovers in the country. Josh Woods will have his hands full trying to contain the Cougars' air raid Quentin Lake had a team leading 8 tackles last week and hopes to make an impact in slowing down the attack of WSU.

Anemic would be an understatement when it comes to UCLA's offense as they've managed to score just 14 points in each of their 3 games. The Bruins gain an average of 264 total yards which ranks near the bottom nationally. Thompson Robinson (47/87 556 5 TD 4 INT) has been mediocre at best committing way too many errant passes much to the chagrin of Chip Kelly who was expecting a lot more in this, his sophomore season. Their running game, or lack thereof, is even worse averaging a paltry 78 yards per contest. Producing just 2 rushing TD's through their first 3 games, Dual back Demetric Felton (38-164 4.3) is seldomly used in the backfield, but leads the Bruins in receiving (13-171 1 TD). After a formidable effort in a tough loss to Cincinnati it's been all downhill for the Bruins on both sides of the ball. For a top 20 squad that thrives on their up tempo passing attack, they've done a good job on defense as well yielding opponents to just 16 ppg. The Cougars run their defense with three men up front and senior Misiona Ailouptea-Pei will be in the middle at nose tackle and flanked by redshirt senior Nnmandi Oguayo and Will Rodgers III. Jahad Woods already has a team leading 25 tackles while Marcus Strong and Bryce Beekman each have 12 in the secondary.

Is anything going right with the Bruins? The defense is able to get behind the line, and the stats are a whole lot worse than things look. Other than Houston, Washington St has encountered few breakdowns on either side of the ball and will thrive on a UCLA squad lacking in big plays and inability to make stops on defense against the nation;s top passing game. There's no such thing as short fields here, and any chance, little as it be to stay close in this one is for Robinson to engineer long drives. Otherwise, expect the Cougs to pounce on the Bruins early and often with no signs of slowing down.

Best of luck however you play!
YTD 5-1 .833 +3.80
 
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