JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(1) Ohio St -41.5 over Maryland (bought half):
The Buckeyes (8-0 5-0) just continue to move the accelerator pedal up the national ratings board week by week. In the National Championship playoff rankings, Ohio St couldn’t fare any better as they rose tot he top of the bunch determining which 4 teams will compete come January 2020. As they come off a well deserved bye week when they totally dominated despite a slow start in their 38-7 win over Wisconsin, they now get to show even more style against Maryland (3-6 1-5), who was throttled by Michigan by that very same score aforementioned at College Park last week. Giles Jackson wasted no time in setting off the onslaught when out of the gate raced the opening kickoff 97 yards to paydirt. Zack Charbonnet (8-28 3.5 2 TD) didn’t put much of a dent into the stat sheet except for his 2 TD runs of 2 and 8 yards in the first half. Scott Patterson (13/22 150 1 TD) was efficient, finding Nick Eubanks (2-12 1 TD) on a 5 yard scoring pass, and Hassan Haskins (13-60 4.6 1 TD) added a rushing TD of 14 yards in the second half with the outcome well in hand. The Wolverines forced a turnover, held the Terps to just 233 total yards, and wrecked havoc on Josh Jackson (9-20 971 1 INT) all day recording 5 sacks. Javon Leake helped the Terrapins avoid the shutout with a 97 yard kickoff return himself in the third quarter.

Justin Fields (128/186 1659 24 TD 1 INT) finds himself at the forefront of the Heisman discussion and contentions category, not just known for his dominating efficiency and execution through the air, but also with his feet (76-319 4.2 9 TD). You could also make a case for JK Dobbins (154-1110 7.2 9 TD) who is the second leading RB in the nation only behind Oklahoma St’s Chubba Hubbard. When Dobbins isn’t carrying the load, Master Teague III (86-588 6.8 4 TD) is also carving up front lines into the secondary as a ground machine. Ohio State’s receiving core is also incredibly balanced, led by playmakers Chris Olave (28-411 8 TD), Binjimen Victor (19-355 3 TD), a deep ball specialist, and KJ Hill (30-305 4TD) in the flat. Chock full of offensive production, the Buckeyes are averaging better than 48 points per contest never mounting less than 34 in any game thus far and should be able to run it up against Maryland. OSU amasses 515 total yards on average and sport the third rated rushing attack in the country amassing 285 yards per. This bodes horribly for MAryland, who allows about 413 total yards per contest along with 30 points on average, especially vulnerable against the pass. In their last 4 defeats, the Terps have been outscored 164-59. The erratic play of Maryland’s defense has proven to be more of a problem for first-year coach Mike Locksley. Losing senior defensive back Tino Ellis, who is out for the year with an upper body injury after starting the first six games, has proven costly week by week. Keandre Jones leads the team in sacks with 7 while Ayinde Eley is quick and eager to pounce on the opposition with 66 tackles, but both will have their hands full and will need to make plays just to have even a glimmer of hope to stay in the game containing this fierce and gruesome attack.

Things couldn’t have started out any better in Maryland’s first 2 games, pitching a 79-0 shutout against Howard followed by a 63-20 silencing of Syracuse. However since then it has all gone downhill losing 6 of their next 7 games with their only other win during that stretch against Rutgers. Can’t blame the misfortune totally on Jackson though (79/159 1065 10 TD 5 INT), as his inefficient completion percentage is a combination of dropped passes and errant throws. The Terps lack depth at receiver with Dontay Demus Jr (32-491 4 TD) as the workhorse. Their strength if any is in the controlled run game with a dual threat in Javon Leake (75-581 7.7 7 TD) and Tayon Fleet-Davis (90-438 4.9 7 TD). Maryland has averaged only 17.7 points over their last 7 games and are in the bottom 30 through the air. Lucky for Ohio St, they have one of the best defenders in the nation in Chase Young, but he will sit out this weekend due to a investigation of violations relative to accepting a loan from a family friend. Don;t think this will have major consequences in the final outcome. Young has recorded 30 tackles just far and 14 sacks accounting for 95 yards in losses by the opposition. Let’s also not look past Jordan Fuller and Malik Harrison with 41 tackles each, and 4 sacks by the latter and 3 picks by the former, tied with Jeff Okudah in INT’s. The Buckeyes surrender only 8 points per contest, and allow only 224 total yards on average, 92 of those on the ground ranking third in the country.

You knew it was only a matter of time that The Greek would go back to his familiar ways laying tons of chalk, but if you notice, it didn’t happen nearly as much earlier this season than in previous. Still, even with Young out of the mix this week this game is one-sided on the field and from the stat comparisons and matchups. The only determining factor for me would be how soon Ryan Day may want to rest his starters as the score gets lopsided late, but even I can’t fathom the backdoor ever opening as this Buckeye team just soars above the level of competition on either side of the ball, adding fuel to their #1 rank fire dominating on both sides of the ball.

I’ll have a second play for Saturday coming up shortly.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(5) Clemson -34 over NC State:
The 5th ranked Tigers (9-0 6-0) were probably felt a bit disrespected after seeing themselves land on the outside of the CFP ratings after Tuesday, but last week got a well deserve reprieve after walloping Wofford 59-14 at Death Valley. Though the massacre didn't do virtually anything to improve their seeding, it will be a worthy tune up down the stretch against more fierce competition. Trevor Lawrence (12/16 218 3 TD), who also ran for a TD and 33 yards, wasted no time helping his Tigers score the first 49 points of the contest. Lawrence hooked up with Amari Rodgers (2-71 1 TD) on a 35 yard TD connection to open the game. Tee Higgins (5-74 1 TD) and Justyn Ross (4-50 1 TD) were also scoring beneficiaries, Travis Ettienne (9-212 23.6 2 TD) ran wild with a season high in offensive rushing production including 47 and 86 yard scoring bursts, and the Tigers amassed 702 total yards in the game, along with 28 first downs and no turnovers. Joe Newman (3/9 111 1 TD 1 INT) was harassed all afternoon and would have been left with even worse futility but managed to connect with D'mauriae VanCleave on a 79 yard TD connection late for window dressing, and the Terriers only other score was a 20 yard TD run by Ryan Lovelace (10-46 4.6 1 TD). Wofford produced just 256 yards overall, 10 first downs and committed 3 turnovers falling to 5-3 overall and 2-2 in the Southern Conference. NC State (4-4 1-3) fell to Wake Forest last week 44-10 as Jamie Newman (25/38 287 3 TD) was responsible for all 5 Demon Deacons TD (11-30 2.7 2 TD) and held NC State to just 268 total yards. DevinLeary (17/45 149 1 TD 2 INT) was god awful as was the WOlfpack offense committing 4 turnovers not able to get on the same page with his receiving cast.

2019 may not exactly mirror the defending championship drive Clemson captured for Lawrence (149/225 2027 20 TD 8 INT), but the sophomore is quickly regaining his 2018 edge as evident by his recent performances. Higgins (32-662 4 TD), Ross (36-444 5 TD), and Rodgers (22-365 4 TD) give Lawrence plenty of depth in the receiving core and each should pad their stats against the Wolfpack. In addition, Etienne (123-1102 9.0 11 TD) comes off a season high in rushing yards his second game north of 200 all season, and 5 triple digits results. The versatile junior is one of the most productive backs in the nation, especially in the flat as a short receiver when it comes to yardage after catch. Clemson has produced 27 scoring TDS's on the ground and has the 6th rated attack in the country. Clemson despite looking conservative at times and not as eager to push the button much further in blowouts, now looks to be hungry in fueling their fire now sitting in the 5th spot. They average nearly 45 points per game and 554 yards in total offense. After a nice start, NC State has a defense that has crossroaded in the middle yielding only 25 per contest but was embarrassed in back to back losses against Wake and BC. Clemson might get tested in the run game given the Wolfpack's results against but are especially weak against the pass allowing about 245 per. They had 8 sacks in an earlier win over Syracuse but have since lost their urgency and will be without 3 of their 4 premiere cornerbacks due to injury.

Leary (37/86 485 4 TD 2 INT) is the third QB used thus far this season and the results have been slow and stale. Despite balance in the receiving core led by Emeka Emizie (39-410 1 TD) and Devin Carter (22-356), the passing game has amassed only 10 TD in a season where the efficiency under center has been a major question mark. Zonovan Knight is a decent but conservative choice in the backfield (82-389 4.7 3 TD) as has been Jordan Houston (63-362 5.7 2 TD), but the Wolfpack have approached this inconsisent campaign as not a matter of urgency, but more of a methodical pace and conservatism. That's not going to get it done against a high powered offense like Clemson. The Tigers surrender less than 12 points per contest and are second in the nation in pass defense. Isiah Simmons has been one of the top defenders in the nation leading the team with 69 tackles, 12 TFL's, and 8 sacks along with 14 QB pressures. The Tigers’ secondary also has developed a penchant for ball hawking with nine interceptions, which is five more than the unit had through eight games last season.

Of course the level for the hype comes on the road where some would think that unbeaten Clemson is primed for an upset. However, the Tigers have weathered the storms and have stayed perfect despite the adversity and quality of their wins. The NC State offense hasn’t been able to run the ball effectively, and the quarterback position is a mess. Lawrence is enabling himself as a warrior who is showing the championship caliber like last season with an all-star personnel succeeding around him. It all spells up to another lopsided road victory in the ACC, where this will get ugly by the fourth quarter, and then Clemson will be on to the Atlantic showdown against Wake Forest and not look ahead in week 11.

Best of luck however you play!
YTD 10-8-2 .550 +.70
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Ask yourself how many times winning margins finals land divisible by 7 and then the proclaimed uselessness becomes valuable.

Would love to see your proof that buying a CFB half-point off a line divisible evenly by 7 (that is larger than 7) produces more profit (units) than just a straight play.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Would love to see your proof that buying a CFB half-point off a line divisible evenly by 7 (that is larger than 7) produces more profit (units) than just a straight play.
Never said it will produce a profit more often than not CMP Bob. It's just a method I will use when I feel the outcome margin could affect the winning difference in s game where necessary to buy.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
You are laying 6 touchdowns and worried about a half point?

Sportsbooks send airplanes and have high rise rooms for this type of thinking.
This is just one of those scenarios where I feel it might factor in. Some make it seem that 10 cents is earth shattering.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Again you are better than pedestrian but buying a 1/2 laying 41 is comical and pathetic
Sorry you feel that way dogball. I respect your opinion but the latter is a bit deep and insulting considering normally you're much better than that.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Never said it will produce a profit more often than not CMP Bob. It's just a method I will use when I feel the outcome margin could affect the winning difference in s game where necessary to buy.

Well, of course, buying the half-point (except for a Pk game) will always help the W/L record. This is probably why you obfuscated profitability and refused to post netunits for several years. Many books will allow buying multiple points, so why not buy as many points as possible?

Totally agree with Dogball, buying a half-point on a game lined at 42 points is pathetically stupid on your part.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Well, of course, buying the half-point (except for a Pk game) will always help the W/L record. This is probably why you obfuscated profitability and refused to post netunits for several years. Many books will allow buying multiple points, so why not buy as many points as possible?

Totally agree with Dogball, buying a half-point on a game lined at 42 points is pathetically stupid on your part.
I was never requested to until this season and the net effect against my profitability didn't consider much of a dent anyway considering the times that I did only cost me a minimum of 10 cents when not being successful. Like dogball, I appreciate your opinion but sorry you feel that way regarding my decision making.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Clemson avoids the backdoor and we notch our first sweep since week 2 and third overall this season. Still having contractions about the half point buy? I didn't think so.
 

dogball

EOG Master
Great easy win on Ohio state , like we said didn’t need the buy and your pick won for fun.
Didn’t mean to be personally insulting , I apologize. Wanted to make my point emphatically
I’d buy a 1/2 from time to time even knowing it’s not a “ pro” move but not at 41
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Great easy win on Ohio state , like we said didn’t need the buy and your pick won for fun.
Didn’t mean to be personally insulting , I apologize. Wanted to make my point emphatically
I’d buy a 1/2 from time to time even knowing it’s not a “ pro” move but not at 41
No worries dogball. Just a methodology I use even with large spreads on a gut feeling. Hope you had a profitable Saturday.
 

dogball

EOG Master
Funny how nobody's saying I'd be dead on given the first half score. Selfish bunch.
Why would we though ?
Is the bet graded at half?
If anything it supports the argument buying the 1/2 laying 41/42 is nuts. By the first half result logic said
The game would finish 65-80. To 0/7-10
And it did
More important take away should be you analyzed the game right , laid a big number and it won for fun.
Comp bob can take it from here
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Why would we though ?
Is the bet graded at half?
If anything it supports the argument buying the 1/2 laying 41/42 is nuts. By the first half result logic said
The game would finish 65-80. To 0/7-10
And it did
More important take away should be you analyzed the game right , laid a big number and it won for fun.
Comp bob can take it from here
You know I only said that because it was coincidental that the number was on 42, just for fun as you just previously mentioned. I took a small wager on the first half too, but the game outcome was my advertised pick. It's amazing how winning laying 2 large numbers can trigger sudden unnecessary adversity from the forum
 

dogball

EOG Master
You know I only said that because it was coincidental that the number was on 42, just for fun as you just previously mentioned. I took a small wager on the first half too, but the game outcome was my advertised pick. It's amazing how winning laying 2 large numbers can trigger sudden unnecessary adversity from the forum
Just to be clear , the issue wasn’t laying the number though. It was buying the 1/2
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Just to be clear , the issue wasn’t laying the number though. It was buying the 1/2
I know what the issue was. As mentioned it was just coincidental where it landed after the first half. Plus I considered the probability that the final outcome may have landed on 42 to support my decision.
 
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