JIMMY THE GREEK SAYS

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Louisiana -27.5 over South Alabama (bought half):
The Rajun Cajuns (7-2 4-1) come off a nice layoff from last Thursday when they crushed Coastal Carolina 48-7 at Brooks Stadium, their third straight win. Levi Lewis (26/30 298 3 TD) had a near perfect performance throwing scores to 3 different receivers led by Jamarcus Bradley (7-71 1 TD). Lewis (4-13 3.3 1 TD) also ran for a TD in addition to two other backs, led by Chris Smith (8-99 12.4 1 TD) as Louisiana racked up 564 yards of total offense, 30 first downs, and didn’t commit a turnover. The Cajuns’ defense held CCU to just 236 total yards, recorded 3 sacks and forced 2 turnovers. Bryce Carpenter (9/20 71) did not get much going for the Chanticleers, and the only offense Coastal mustered was a late TD pass from Fred Payton (3/3 62 1 TD) to Sam Denmark (1-44 1 TD) to avoid getting shut out. Meanwhile, South Alabama (1-8 0-5) remained winless in the Sun Belt dropping their 7th straight overall last week to Texas St 30-28 at Bobcat Stadium. Joshua Rowland kicked 3 field goals, including the winning boot from 41 yards with 6:14 remaining after Tra Minter’s 6 yard TD run gave the Jaguars a 28-27 lead with 10:00 to go in the game. Tyler Vitt (23/33 373 3 TD 1 INT) played well in a nip and tuck back and forth battle and seemingly gave the Bobcats a game winning cushion at 27-21 thanks to a 17 yard scoring pass late in the third quarter to Trevis Graham (2-55 2 TD). Hutch White (10-165) was Vitt’s main target which helped set up the game winning score as the Bobcats were held to only 42 collective rushing yards. Desmond Trotter (13/17 164 2 TD) kept things close by hitting Davyn Flenord (1-22 1 TD) and Jalen Wade (2-22 1 TD) with scoring passes. Minter (21-87 4.1 1 TD) nearly sealed the game midway through the 4th, and USA forced 3 turnovers, but could not deliver the upset on their final possession.

Lewis (148/221 1771 14 TD 3 INT) is a highly efficient QB with plenty of arm strength and versatility under center who’s been an extremely solid game manager as well. Jamarcus Bradley (36-510 5 TD) has been the recipient of nearly 40% of Lewis’ TD passes and is the lone workhorse downfield. However, the bread and butter of this ULL Offense is primarily by far their running attack. Elijah Mitchell (126-757 6.0 12 TD) is among the leaders in the country in rushing scores, and has run for better than 100 yards 3 times despite held to just 52 last week. Trey Ragas (75-617 8.2 8 TD) also has 3 triple digit individual efforts this season and Raymond Calais (76-573 7.5 4 TD) completes a three headed monster that has combined for nearly 2,000 yards thus far. ULL boasts the 8th rated ground game in the nation averaging 281 yards per contest. Scoring nearly 39 points on average, their passing game is almost as respectable as their run arsenal, so the opposition is regularly challenged when it comes to controlling the Cajuns’ tempo. That’s no exception for USA’s defense, which allows 31 points per game overall, including 202 yards on the ground which is in the bottom 20. Nick Mobley leads the Jags with 75 tackles, but USA has only 13 sacks all season. Travis Reed has 3 INT’s but given the lack of depth against the run and pass, Lewis and the core RB’s should carve up the Jaguars early and often.

Trotter (16/26 207 2 TD) should get the nod once again after the Jaguars have now gone through a trio of starting QB’s. USA is among the futile productive squads in the country scoring just 16 points per contest and just a shade over 300 total yards. Their passing attack is 8th worse overall, and their ground game isn’t much better, although Minter (132-744 5.6 3 TD) could be the relative lone bright spot. Combined due to a lack of personnel and injuries, South Alabama is limited in both facets with Kawaan Baker (26-435 3 TD) probably their best deep threat. Playing right into the Cajuns’ hands, they allow the same amount of points USA scores, and are top 20 against the pass surrendering only 192 yards on average through the air. Joe Dillon is an intimidating presence in the pass rush with a team leading 6 sacks while Jacques Bordeaux has 62 tackles this season. A slow pace might keep the scoring down early, but there is a clear disparity in objective and urgency in comparison with both teams.

The Jaguars have one of the most lackluster offenses in the nation. ULL is 11th overall in scoring and has a scary, quick, and wearing down ground game along with a formidable QB having himself a better than expected campaign. Look for the Ragin Cajuns to completely dismantle the Jaguars as USA will remain hard pressed to amass a conference win this season.
I’ll have a second play ready to go for week 12 on Saturday.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
(5) Alabama -18.5 over Mississippi St:
Tua or no Tua? That is the question. While Tua’s status remains a game-time decision as well as a Heisman hopeful, The Crimson Tide now are on a mission to stay in the National Championship conversation after suffering their first loss of the season to LSU 46-41 last week at Bryant-Denny. Joe Burrow (31/39 393 3 TD) helped the Tigers control a fierce aerial attack from start to finish, leading up to a 20 point halftime lead and holding on late. All 3 of his scores took place in the first half as the senior set the tone early finding Jamarr Chase (6-140 1 TD) on a 33 yard corner pattern just 5:00 in. Burrow also connected with Terrace Marshall Jr (2-45 1 TD) and Clyde Edwards Helaire (9-77 1 TD) on TD passes of 29 and 13 yards respectively. Edwards-Helaire also ran for 103 yards on 20 carries (5.2) and 3 TD, including a 7 yard scoring run late, killing all hopes of a 'Bama comeback. LSU edged Alabama in yardage 559-541, controlled the clock decisively and registered 30 first downs. A hobbled Tagovailoa (21/40 418 4 TD 1 INT) clearly not 100%, tried to engineer a furious 4th quarter comeback that ultimately fell short. Jaylen Waddle returned a punt 77 yards to payridt to get the Crimson Tide on the board. A clearly hobbled Tua (21/40 418 4 TD 1 INT) hooked up with Devonta Smith (7-213 2 TD) twice, including an 85 yard bomb with 1:21 remaining that at least set up a potential onside kick attempt late, but Bama failed to receive possession. Najee Harris (19-146 7.7 1 TD) ran for a score and caught a TD pass (3-44 1 TD), but the rally ultimately fell short. The defending runners- up take their act to Starkville against Mississippi St (4-5 2-4) who easily ambushed Arkansas 54-24 a couple of weeks back coming off a bye.

Taglovailoa (166/234 2584 31 TD 3 INT) is still in the running for the Heisman along with Burrow, and despite not at 100% with a high ankle injury, he continues to put up earth shattering passing numbers despite limited in practice all week. Saban is hoping that Tua will be ready, otherwise it will be Matt Jones (38/54 472 4 TD 1 INT) obtaining the duties under center. Bama will be coming in extremely focused, but the load may be lighter whether it’s Tua or Jones, as the Crimson Tide have shown they are an offensive machine given their depth in the receiving game led by Smith (50-934 11 TD) and All-American Jerry Jeudy (57-753 9 TD), both ultimate playmakers. The Tide also have a lone workhorse in the backfield with Najee Harris (127-788 6.2 6 TD) breaking tackles and forging forward in all directions. This offense is stacked averaging nearly 49 points per contest, 514 total yards, and the 4th best nationwide aerial attack. The Bulldogs are moderately susceptable against the pass allowing 228 yards as such on average, along with 30 points per game. Pro-level talent is virtually irreplaceable. Mississippi State is finding out the hard way. Senior Chauncey Rivers is a better-than-decent defensive end in the SEC, but he’s not Montez Sweat. Redshirt junior Marquiss Spencer is coming along on the edge, but he’s not yet as solid as former team captain Gerri Green. They could however, have an impact on Tua given their 38 sacks, 8 by Brian Cole III along with 50 tackles. One fierce hit and Saban may be forced to proceed with caution.

Davis Wade Stadium will be rocking with hopes of keeping their bowl chances alive, and no better satisfaction than potentially derailing the Crimson Tide’s championship hopes. The combination of Garrett Shrader (75/136 1022 7 TD 5 INT), and Tommy Stevens (55/87 687 7 TD 4 INT) has resulted in merely mediocre paid dividends. Kylin Hill (176-1027 5.8 9 TD) is a force to be reckoned with in the backfield, with incredible balance and lightning quick speed. Shrader (92-505 5.5 3 TD) does fare well in the option offense when callable, but there is a considerable lapse of talent when paled in comparison to Saban and company. They are middle of the road averaging about 26 points per game, but clearly thrive on the ground ranked 21st in FBS with 217 yards as opposed to just 190 through the air. Terell Lewis and Anfernee Jennings are co-leaders for the Alabama defense with 7 sacks apiece, with Xavier McKinney’s 70 tackles among the best in the nation. Style points will be a topic of discussion going forward, as Bama allows 18 points per contest, with most in garbage time other than their flat first half performance against LSU.

Looking to avoid back-to back upsets since 2007, I just can’t see The Tide floundering for a second consecutive week whether Tua is ready or not. Neither can they look ahead to the Iron Bowl and Auburn in the coming weeks. Bama will be looking to score at will, and this Miss St defense does not resemble the same feisty bunch from last season big time. Roll tide for now, and keep in mind this theme will have to carry forward for the remainder of the season as Saban continues to take care of business with a little help necessary from the out of town contenders.

Best of luck however you play!
YTD 12-8-2 .591 +2.70
 

dogball

EOG Master
At William hill 98% of the money wagered on the game is on Louisiana Highest percentage game this week.
Wow GL
 

Biff41

EOG Dedicated
I am looking at mismatch Ark St -13 who should easily roll over Coastal Carolina. Other Opinions??
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
I am looking at mismatch Ark St -13 who should easily roll over Coastal Carolina. Other Opinions??
Was looking at that game as well but my interest is more on the total which I have capped around 68. Think it was listed at 60. Over for game and 1h
 
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