Kentucky Derby 2022….

Brayden11

EOG Dedicated
I’m looking at Charge It, if the price is right 15-1 or somewhere around that. Charge it will definitely be in my exotics along with Epicenter and one of the Cox horses.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Always toss the foreign horses shipping in from europe or japan, etc, since they dont understand english they're at a huge disadvantage with the american horses.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Hear Mattress Mack is on Smile Happy

no he will pound the favorite or be sure he makes a horse the favorite he has his money on. wil be Epicenter

in a couple of the early Derby future pools he bet a bit on smilehappy to get some buzz and have him the pool favorite..
 

royboy

EOG Dedicated
Also like Charge it at a price.

Taiba as well, but expecting him to be bet down from his morning line.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
im feeling an all Z weekend

echo Zulu in Oaks

Zandon, Zozos and tiZ the law in Derby

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I think Zandon and Mo Donegal will be in the mix. I like Charge It as well, but he is still a little green as he showed in the Florida Derby.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Andy Beyer's Derby selection is #15 White Abarrio.

Jay Privman likes #10 Zandon.

Excellent commentary from two outstanding journalists.

Thanks for sharing, VALUIST.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
A few odds predictions. The morning line looks off a bit. I don't see Zandon as the favorite. Not that he can't win, but I don't see him at 3/1. I also don't see Taiba near 12/1. More like 6/1. The public loves big Beyers. I would expect Epicenter to be the betting favorite.
 
I agree. I think Epicenter will go off the fav. I'm hoping for 4-1 or 9-2 on Zandon. My biggest problem with White Abarrio is that I don't think he was the best horse in the Fla derby. I think Charge It was.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I agree. I think Epicenter will go off the fav. I'm hoping for 4-1 or 9-2 on Zandon. My biggest problem with White Abarrio is that I don't think he was the best horse in the Fla derby. I think Charge It was.

Charge It did run a good race. He was a bit green in the stretch. The Japanese horse who won in Dubai also ran greenly, not changing leads in the stretch. The Japanese horse appears to be the wild card. Beyer said their projection was only around a 93; Thorgraph gave him a 2.2 so that makes him legit. Japanese horses have been on a roll in the past year; Breeders Cup Day, Dubai World Cup day etc.
 
V, yeah. looked like Charge It needed that race. Was fighting the jock all the way thru the stretch. His breeding says he should like the added distance.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
According to Andy Serling of NYRA, Steve Asmussen has lost his last 70 starts in the state of Kentucky (that may be excluding Turfway, considered a lower tier track). That's significant when you consider he trains Epicenter, who figures to be one of the betting favorites.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
JK, did you not have a bad experience with a Beyer interview?

Indeed.

Good memory, HEIM.

I had flashbacks watching Privman negotiate the interview with Beyer.

I interviewed Andy on a Derby Day about an hour before the big race, circa the late 1990's.

The radio show was live from the Stardust and we were promoting Andy's 1-2-3 order of finish all day long.

We connected with Andy in the press box at Churchill Downs and I offered a brief introduction to "America's most celebrated horseplayer."

I also promoted his book, "Beyer On Speed."

But I think I caught him at a bad time on a bad day.

When we got near the end of the 10-minute interview, I asked Beyer to offer his top three finishers in reverse order of preference, thinking I was adding a little suspense and intrigue to the program.

The prickly Beyer did not like my idea.

And he could not restrain himself.

"I don't have time for nonsense like that," he barked.

Beyer then rattled off his top selection and quickly provided two or three exotic partners.

He was off the phone in a flash and a dial tone was heard on the air.

I responded to the embarrassing situation with my standard go-to line in times of trouble, "You're listening to a special Saturday afternoon edition of 'The Stardust Line.'"
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Ever since the Beyer interview, I like to refer to moody people as "having prickly personalities" with an emphasis on the the first syllable of the word "prickly."
 
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Valuist

EOG Master
One thing to watch. Apparently a lot of rain expected today in Louisville. In the past 10-15 years, we've seen some Derby days with monsoon-like conditions, yet the stubborn/lazy/ignorant Churchill Downs refused to label their grass courses lower than "good". I expect a soft or yielding course tomorrow and will handicap under that premise. Do not be fooled thinking the alleged "good" turf is almost firm.

Do not only look at the Derby. Lots of good opportunities on the undercard.
 
Horses I'm tossing.
Happy Jack- Doesn't look fast enough.

Summer Is Tomorrow- Shippers historically don't do well hear. Should go out fast and think he will start fading around the mile mark.

Crown Pride- Another Shipper. He apparently is looking VERY good in works but I'm still going to take a pass. Can't cover all the horses.

Tiz The Bomb- Betting he doesn't take to the CD surface.

Pioneer Of Medina- Moving in the right direction but don't think he is on the level of the best here.Beaten by several horses that are running.

Simplification- Tough throw out. Ran well in The FOY but Faded in the Fla Derby. The added distance won't help.

Barber Road- Not fast enough for these.

Cyberknife- On the improve, but don't think it will be enough.

Classic Causeway- Will go for the lead from the outside post. Don't see him getting the 1 1/4.

Tawny Port- Another that looks like he doesn't belong here based on speed figs.

Zozos- Talented horse who is improving. I think he will need to get close to the front and running from the 19th hole is asking a lot.

Ethereal Road- Only reason to run him is to sit in the owners box.


That leaves
Mo Donegal, Epicenter,Smile Happy, Messier, Charge It, Zandon, Taiba, and White Abarrio,
 
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Ray Luca

EOG Master
According to Andy Serling of NYRA, Steve Asmussen has lost his last 70 starts in the state of Kentucky (that may be excluding Turfway, considered a lower tier track). That's significant when you consider he trains Epicenter, who figures to be one of the betting favorites.

Lets see how is Oaks filly Echo Zulu runs. Came back off layoff to score....could improve today
 
Also tossing
Epicenter. I believe he will go off the fav and looks like a beatable favorite to me. In the 3 hole with Summer Is Tomorrow just outside of him. I think he is going to have to go too fast too early to get position.

White Abarrio- If I'm going to include a horse from the Fla Derby, it will be Charge It.

I just can't decide about Taiba. I think he is probably the best 3 year old out there, but they are asking a lot of him. Plus this isn't the SA Derby with only 6 horses. On the plus side his running style should be right for this race. Also Mike Smith up. With any other Jock, he'd be a toss Any opinions on him would be appreciated.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Thanks for sharing, Willy.

Mike Battaglia, the oddsmaker at Churchill Downs, whiffed on Taiba's morning-line price.

He listed Taiba at 12/1 in the program.

Taiba will be half that price, I believe.
 
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