Re: Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool One) begins tomorrow
Who said anything about taking 3/2? For the record, i didn't bet the field. I was hoping to get 5/2, probably a pipe dream but you never know. The field did get as high as 8/5 at one point on Sunday, but that was the best price i saw.
Also for the record, i agree that none of the entries had value. A case can be made for the field @ 3/2, i guess, but i don't think you have any margin for error at that price. I do believe it was far-and-away the best option in that pool, however.
Same point you're trying to make about the KDFW, i've made several times in the past regarding the Kentucky Derby (or Breeders Cup) futures in Las Vegas. Just because such-and-such horse is 20/1 at one hotel while he's listed @ 10/1 everywhere else, it in no way means that 20/1 is a good bet. What's important is NOT the price at other locales, but simply the horse's actual chance of winning the race (and those two things are completely unrelated). And as we've discussed before, when dealing with this kind of timeframe, you need to start from the Derby and then work your way backwards to include the time involved & number of prep races remaining, so that you can try and account for the risk of injury, deterioration of form, potential distance limitations, potential lack of graded earnings, not to even mention your basic race-day stuff like a bad post draw or severe traffic trouble in that 20-horse cavalry charge. Oh, and a potentially sloppy track to boot. You know how i feel about that stuff (regarding acceptable future prices), and i shouldn't have to tell you. The Pool One field is obviously very different though, because you're insulated against injury and form reversal to a large degree (in fact, you tend to benefit from it).
As for the Big Brown example, sure it was extreme but i was trying to make a point that you could potentially wind up with the favorite (perhaps even several of them). Someone else in the thread suggested that you'll end up with longshots-only, which is improbable in most years and therefore not a valid argument, imo. And as for that extreme example (just looking at it in a bubble), i'm no math guy, but i have to think it'd be pretty damn hard to Dutch yourself into 3/2 on the Pool One field particpants when one of then is going off at less than 5/2. You'd know more about that than i would, i'm sure, but just on the face of it, it strikes me as highly unlikely. Not when you have 7 other horses to account for, in addition to the 2/1 favorite.
PS - In a somewhat related matter, have you heard anything about FLF galloping? I thought i saw a post from his owner (Oscar Pena) saying that he was "now working for the SA Derby". Since he obviously hasn't made an appearance on the worktab, i thought that might've meant he had recen't begin galloping. It might also mean that he suffered an injury (seems obvious at this point, btw) and will now try to make it back in time for the SA Derby (i.e. early April). Probably a moot point, but i retain some interest in the colt. Not many prospective Derby contenders can say they've already won at distances up to 1 1/2 miles. I don't believe Peruvian graded (group) earnings count towards the Derby, though i could be wrong because the European/Dubai races obviously count. So even if he does turn up in the SA Derby, if that's his first race back then he would probably have to hit the exacta in order to make it into the race (coincidentally, the same position Big Brown was in when he entered the gate for the Florida Derby some years back). Again, just another example of how important graded earnings are. If you don't have them, you aren't getting in. No matter how talented you might be.