Kentucky Derby Odds

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#2
will be interesting. who ever Mike Smith takes will be slight fav. unless in 1hole I suppose. I can't see game winner as post time favorite close as u say but not quite fav. u will get a price on max security u have that right
 
#3
Smith said he’ll evaluate both horses but ultimately let his agent choose who to ride in the Kentucky Derby.
“That’s what I pay him for,” Smith said with a laugh.
Added Porter, the Omaha Beach owner: “I go way back with Mike. I’m betting on us.”
 
#7
RIP.

Nobody has predictions on odds though? I don’t think Battaglia is very good at making morning lines, especially for a race like this one, so let’s predict actual OFF odds. If you look across sportsbooks there doesn’t even seem to be a consensus yet on who the favorite will be.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#8
ok ill trytrytry

off lines
Omaha beach 4.9 - 1
roadster 5.1 -1
Game winner 6.2 - 1
Improbable 6.9 -1


maximum security 8.1 -1
tacitus 8.3 - 1
vekoma 9.4-1



struggling with who the 8th choice will be

and hard to say who wise guy horse will be too


16-1 win win win (possible wise guy horse)
16-1 war of will (he is not 100% to run but had a monster workout at keenland Saturday so its higher probability he will train up to a start)
17.5 -1 tax (this horrible name will lead to less of the public run money imo and 20-1 would not shock me at all)


18-1 code of honor (possible wise guy horse)
19-1 by my standards
22-1 long rage toddy
24-1 spinoff (might be the forgotten horse)
29-1 country house (not 100% sure he will run)


29-1 Haikal
30-1 Cutting Humor


42-1 PLUS QUE PARFAIT
55-1 GRAY MAGICIAN (not 100 % sure he will run)

82-1 that japan horse cant recall the name right now.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
70-1 bodeexpress if gets in
27-1 Anothertwistafate (possible wise guy horse if he gets in

I did not do the math so dont know if this is about 17% takeout or +EV set of odds but something like that order On quick look i might be a touch generous maybe tacitus and vekoma a touch lower.
 
Last edited:
#12
I think Code of Honor or War of Will will be the 8th choice depending on draw. Both have impressive wins on their resume and can be seen as value picks if you’re willing to toss their last. I have 33:1 on War of Will myself for a bit.

I like Tax if he’s closer to 25:1. He should grind his way through that field and have a chance.

My biggest positions currently are Roadster and Omaha Beach.
 
#13
PETA held 23 funerals in Santa Anita for the deceased horse today.

Horses are drugged, whipped and overtrained.

Let them run in the wild and off the track.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#15
I think Code of Honor or War of Will will be the 8th choice depending on draw. Both have impressive wins on their resume and can be seen as value picks if you’re willing to toss their last. I have 33:1 on War of Will myself for a bit.

I like Tax if he’s closer to 25:1. He should grind his way through that field and have a chance.

My biggest positions currently are Roadster and Omaha Beach.

Roadster and Omaha Beach.

I think you and Mike Smith have the right pair, Weinke.
 
#18
Omaha beach, game winner and roadster in the top 3.

Maximum security, improbable, Tacitus next 3

Wide open from there.. likely a ton of horses between about 13/1 and 25/1, including code of honor, war of will, win win win, vakoma, be my standards
 
#22
Highest-priced favorite in Kentucky Derby history was Lookin At Lucky at odds of 6.30-1 in 2010.

$100k super that year, and I think payouts will be similar this year.

There are going to be a couple late closers that will hit the board this year, and they all of the closers will be 15/1+

Country House, Tax, Win Win Win, Haikai, Signalman, and even Master Fencer. They all have great late speed, and any of the 6 could come flying late to blow up exacta, tris and supers
 
#23
2017 is another year that could be similar to this one.

The 2nd favorite won, but looking at lee and battle
Of midway closed late as long shots.

Tri paid $8k and super paid $75k, and that’s with 2 of the 4 being the top 2 betting selections
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#24
2017 is another year that could be similar to this one.

The 2nd favorite won, but looking at lee and battle
Of midway closed late as long shots.

Tri paid $8k and super paid $75k, and that’s with 2 of the 4 being the top 2 betting selections
always dreaming was the post time favorite, but yes the super blew up with the dreaded 1 hole hitting the board 2nd ( also people derby time avoid using #1 in all wagers so if your fishing for amonster use the #1 underneath) that day it greatly helped the tri and super!
 
#33
Omaha beach- Mike Smith
Roadster- Florent geroux
Game Winner- Joel rosario
Improbable- Irad Ortiz
Maximum Security- Luis Saez
Tacitus- Jose Ortiz
Vekoma- Javier Castellano
Code of Honor- Johnny Velazquez
Haikal- Rajiv Maragh
Spin Off- Manny Franco
Win Win Win- Julian Pimiental
Plus Que Parfait- Ricardo Santana
Master Fencer- Julien Leparoux
By My Standards- Gabriel Saez
War of Will- Tyler Gaffalione
Tax- Junior Alvarado
Long Range Toddy- Jon Court (oldest ky derby jockey ever?)

???:
Cutting Humor
Country House
Gray Magician
 
Top