Kentucky Derby Odds

WeinketoWarrick

EOG Master
What will they end up being?

Omaha Beach/Roadster/Game Winner all 5/1?

Improbable/Tacitus/Maximum Security 8/1 range?
 
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trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
will be interesting. who ever Mike Smith takes will be slight fav. unless in 1hole I suppose. I can't see game winner as post time favorite close as u say but not quite fav. u will get a price on max security u have that right
 

blueline

EOG Master
Smith said he’ll evaluate both horses but ultimately let his agent choose who to ride in the Kentucky Derby.
“That’s what I pay him for,” Smith said with a laugh.
Added Porter, the Omaha Beach owner: “I go way back with Mike. I’m betting on us.”
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Thanks for the note, Try3.

Davidowitz was a friendly sort.

I chatted with him several times in Las Vegas.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I bought Davidowitz's last book about betting on the sport's biggest days.

It was good, not great.

"Betting Thoroughbreds" was his classic.
 

WeinketoWarrick

EOG Master
RIP.

Nobody has predictions on odds though? I don’t think Battaglia is very good at making morning lines, especially for a race like this one, so let’s predict actual OFF odds. If you look across sportsbooks there doesn’t even seem to be a consensus yet on who the favorite will be.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
ok ill trytrytry

off lines
Omaha beach 4.9 - 1
roadster 5.1 -1
Game winner 6.2 - 1
Improbable 6.9 -1


maximum security 8.1 -1
tacitus 8.3 - 1
vekoma 9.4-1



struggling with who the 8th choice will be

and hard to say who wise guy horse will be too


16-1 win win win (possible wise guy horse)
16-1 war of will (he is not 100% to run but had a monster workout at keenland Saturday so its higher probability he will train up to a start)
17.5 -1 tax (this horrible name will lead to less of the public run money imo and 20-1 would not shock me at all)


18-1 code of honor (possible wise guy horse)
19-1 by my standards
22-1 long rage toddy
24-1 spinoff (might be the forgotten horse)
29-1 country house (not 100% sure he will run)


29-1 Haikal
30-1 Cutting Humor


42-1 PLUS QUE PARFAIT
55-1 GRAY MAGICIAN (not 100 % sure he will run)

82-1 that japan horse cant recall the name right now.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
70-1 bodeexpress if gets in
27-1 Anothertwistafate (possible wise guy horse if he gets in

I did not do the math so dont know if this is about 17% takeout or +EV set of odds but something like that order On quick look i might be a touch generous maybe tacitus and vekoma a touch lower.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The Roadster-Game Winner rivalry is interesting.

The horses split two meetings with the second choice winning both races.
 

WeinketoWarrick

EOG Master
I think Code of Honor or War of Will will be the 8th choice depending on draw. Both have impressive wins on their resume and can be seen as value picks if you’re willing to toss their last. I have 33:1 on War of Will myself for a bit.

I like Tax if he’s closer to 25:1. He should grind his way through that field and have a chance.

My biggest positions currently are Roadster and Omaha Beach.
 

railbird

EOG Master
PETA held 23 funerals in Santa Anita for the deceased horse today.

Horses are drugged, whipped and overtrained.

Let them run in the wild and off the track.
 
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WeinketoWarrick

EOG Master
I’ll say

Roadster 9/2
Omaha Beach 5/1
Game Winner 6/1
Improbable 7/1
Tacitus 8/1
Maximum Security 8/1
Vekoma 11/1
Code of Honor 14/1
War of Will 15/1
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I think Code of Honor or War of Will will be the 8th choice depending on draw. Both have impressive wins on their resume and can be seen as value picks if you’re willing to toss their last. I have 33:1 on War of Will myself for a bit.

I like Tax if he’s closer to 25:1. He should grind his way through that field and have a chance.

My biggest positions currently are Roadster and Omaha Beach.


Roadster and Omaha Beach.

I think you and Mike Smith have the right pair, Weinke.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
CNN has ads for some Horse racing world of horse racing show. does anyone ever see it on or find it?
 

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Omaha beach, game winner and roadster in the top 3.

Maximum security, improbable, Tacitus next 3

Wide open from there.. likely a ton of horses between about 13/1 and 25/1, including code of honor, war of will, win win win, vakoma, be my standards
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Highest-priced favorite in Kentucky Derby history was Lookin At Lucky at odds of 6.30-1 in 2010.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Churchill Downs linesmaker Mike Battaglia says Roadster will be the morning-line favorite if Mike Smith stays aboard.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Battaglia's Top 5: Roadster, Omaha Beach, Game Winner, Maximum Security and Improbable.

I think Battaglia's cheating off BP's numbers.
 

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Highest-priced favorite in Kentucky Derby history was Lookin At Lucky at odds of 6.30-1 in 2010.


$100k super that year, and I think payouts will be similar this year.

There are going to be a couple late closers that will hit the board this year, and they all of the closers will be 15/1+

Country House, Tax, Win Win Win, Haikai, Signalman, and even Master Fencer. They all have great late speed, and any of the 6 could come flying late to blow up exacta, tris and supers
 

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
2017 is another year that could be similar to this one.

The 2nd favorite won, but looking at lee and battle
Of midway closed late as long shots.

Tri paid $8k and super paid $75k, and that’s with 2 of the 4 being the top 2 betting selections
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
2017 is another year that could be similar to this one.

The 2nd favorite won, but looking at lee and battle
Of midway closed late as long shots.

Tri paid $8k and super paid $75k, and that’s with 2 of the 4 being the top 2 betting selections

always dreaming was the post time favorite, but yes the super blew up with the dreaded 1 hole hitting the board 2nd ( also people derby time avoid using #1 in all wagers so if your fishing for amonster use the #1 underneath) that day it greatly helped the tri and super!
 

WeinketoWarrick

EOG Master
Mike Smith picks Omaha Beach. Geroux to ride Roadster.

Think Omaha Beach goes off 4/1 as the fave and Game Winner is also 4/1 or maybe 9/2. Then Roadster.
 

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Omaha beach- Mike Smith
Roadster- Florent geroux
Game Winner- Joel rosario
Improbable- Irad Ortiz
Maximum Security- Luis Saez
Tacitus- Jose Ortiz
Vekoma- Javier Castellano
Code of Honor- Johnny Velazquez
Haikal- Rajiv Maragh
Spin Off- Manny Franco
Win Win Win- Julian Pimiental
Plus Que Parfait- Ricardo Santana
Master Fencer- Julien Leparoux
By My Standards- Gabriel Saez
War of Will- Tyler Gaffalione
Tax- Junior Alvarado
Long Range Toddy- Jon Court (oldest ky derby jockey ever?)

???:
Cutting Humor
Country House
Gray Magician
 
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