KEY #s in NFL TOTALS

#1
Props to the SHRINK & the GENERAL on the new site .Seems more information driven , especially since we can fade BEANTOWNJIM again.

Anyone have the stats &\or info for KEY #s in NFL totals . Halftime info would also be appreciated . Do you guys feel 2nd half lines should be viewed as a completely different bet or should be relative to 1st half & what positions U already have on the game ? Would think stats since 2 point conversion came into play in NFL would be pertinent .

Any opinions on PINNACLE's LIVE BETTING they offered last Thursday nite & will be offering 2nite in Philly\Atl game ? Thanks 4 any input or thoughts. GL
 
#2
believe 37 is the most important number. 34,41 come to mind also. Obviously the higher you go the less key it becomes. Biggest halftime key number is 17, then 20.
 
#4
Here's what I use, which I think is from Stanford Wong:

Total Push Freq (%)
33 - 2
34 - 3
35 - 3
36 - 2
37 - 5
38 - 3
39 - 1.5
40 - 2
41 - 4
42 - 2
43 - 2
44 - 3
45 - 3
46 - 3
47 - 3
48 - 2
49 - 3

I would be interested to see what people say about Halftime betting.
 
#5
37 is the strongest #, and the rest in this order 38, 41, 34, 43, 45, and 44 after that I dont respect too much, I think 42 is a DEAD # alot of people respect that #, in my books its dead as a door nail. 41.5, 42, and 42.5 are all DEAD in my mind.
 

GCP

EOG Member
#8
i like 2h bets. typically i try and see where the momentum for the team lies and also the "opposite" effect.

for instance, last night, i thought Indy was a decent bet at a pick. they were moving the ball well. baltimore, i didn't think, would be able to stop them all game long. TV through a worthless stat about peyton not throwing a touchdone for 7 qtrs. well, four of them were against the pats dating back to last year and two of them were in the first half of the current game.

as for the opposite effect, when games are high scoring in the first half, i love betting the under. last night was similiar - 3 points in the FH and 28 in the second. i don't have a scientific formula backing this, so buyer beware.

my thoughts, fwiw.
 
#11
GCP,

there are no good numbers to suggest the "opposite effect" is profitable. In fact the opposite (no pun intended) could lead to better results. I remember reading halftime trends which suggested games with only 13/17 points in the first half were more likely to go Under in the 2nd half.
 
#12
Thanks 4 the input . Is there ever a time it's mathamatically correct to buy on or off of 37 ? What about if U can buy half point for 5 cents ? Any other #s ? Know some locals who don't bother with putting any extra juice on halftime lines . Anyone know of any "Internet Shops" that do this ? "honest abe" , do U know what years were used to get the data U supplied ?

Always wondered about 1st quarter lines & other quarter lines that are -\+ 1\2 point & is there any way to use this & the different juice offered on these to the players' advantage ? GL
 
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