Looks like another $2,000,000+ overlay with Circa Million IV and Survivor contests 2022-2023

[Woodrow Wilson]

They really need to change the format with lines being -3 / +2.5, -7 / +6.5, so it reflects actual betting opinions.

Maybe Westgate will make the change to pump some life back into their dead contest.

Jeff at Circa told me it's a software issue. I believe it has more to do with a lack of creativity and laziness.

 

[Woodrow Wilson]

How many would have had Vikings using 3 or 3.5?

Most of us would have been on the Saints at 3.5.

 

[railbird]

How many would have had Vikings using 3 or 3.5?

Most of us would have been on the Saints at 3.5.

saints +3.5 would have been a wrong side winner, like vols -6.5 vs pitt.

 

[Woodrow Wilson]

Yeah and every day of gambling has "wrong side winner" games.

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa survivor thru Sun AM, Week 4: survive: 482 (Bengals, Vikings, Eagles, Chargers, Jets, Cowboys, Giants, Falcons), eliminated: 325 (21.0%), pending: 743, no ticket: 0.

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa survivor going into SNF, Week 4: survive: 1216 (Bengals, Vikings, Eagles, Chargers, Jets, Cowboys, Giants, Falcons, Cards, Raiders, Packers), eliminated: 328 (21.0%), pending: 6, no ticket: 0.

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa Million IV Week 4 record thru AM games:

Overall W/L/T: 11112 7395 1478 60.0%

Pts #Cappers
17.5 1
17.0 2
16.5 2
16.0 8
15.5 12
15 43

 

[railbird]

Circa Million IV Week 4 record thru SNF:

Overall W/L/T: 11112 7395 1478 60.0%

Pts #Cappers
17.5 1
17.0 2
16.5 2
16.0 8
15.5 12
15 43

what is tail party -2 record?

 

[railbird]

what is tail party -2 record?

im showing 18-1

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa Million IV Week 4: point distribution going into MNF:

Overall W/L/T record: 11917-8201-1478, 59.2%

Pts #Cappers
18.5 1
18 3
17.5 1
17.0 11
16.5 5
16.0 40
15.5 34
15 118

Last Place (#Losses):
Pts #Cappers
18 2
17.5 2
17 5
16 14

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa Million IV Final Week 4, point distribution:

Overall W/L/T record: 12674-9013-1478, 58.4%
Total: 49337-42015-1478, 54.0%


Pts #Cappers
18.5 2
18 5
17.5 1
17.0 14
16.5 6
16.0 51
15.5 49
15 145
14.5 80
14 239

Last Place (#Losses):
Pts #Cappers
18 1
17.5 2
17 5
16 12
15.5 9
15 25

 

[railbird]

Circa Million IV Final Week 4, point distribution:

Overall W/L/T record: 12674-9013-1478, 58.4%
Total: 49337-42015-1478, 54.0%


Pts #Cappers
18.5 2
18 5
17.5 1
17.0 14
16.5 6
16.0 51
15.5 49
15 145
14.5 80
14 239

Last Place (#Losses):
Pts #Cappers
18 1
17.5 2
17 5
16 12
15.5 9
15 25

im the bubble boy

 

[Woodrow Wilson]

​

FYI: https://www.circalasvegas.com/circa-survivor-empathy-package/​

Calling all eliminated Circa Survivor contestants!​

We know what it’s like to make a bad pick, so we’d like to show our appreciation to all Circa Survivor contestants that have been eliminated thus far. Any Circa Survivor contestant who had all of their entries eliminated within the first three weeks of the NFL season will receive a complimentary redemption package.

This mid-week complimentary package will include a hotel stay at any of our three properties along with a day bed at Stadium Swim during your visit.

Valid Dates: November 7 – January 5 (Monday – Thursday)

 

[Fezzik]

This Raiders guy could be the dumbest guy in America.

Seriously, I had THIS VERY same argument with dozens of people in 2005, when i explained to them how Contests were like 200% ROI vs. the donkey field.

FURTHER, if need be you can selectively hedge select games late.

Even without ANY overlays, my ROI in contests is just silly good.

 

[Woodrow Wilson]

With the large quarter prizes being added, I think select hedging adds value throughout contests.

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa survivor final Week 5: survive: 718 (49ers, Vikings, Bills, Pats, Bucs, Eagles, Chargers, Saints, Ravens, Chiefs), eliminated: 504 (41.2%), no ticket: 0.

Equity per entry: $8,541.78

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa Million IV Week 5 Full Season Standings: going into SNF:

Week 5 Overall W/L/T record: 8505-9939-1810, 46.1%

Pts #Cappers
20.5 1
20 8
19.5 6
19 15
18.5 27
18 54
17.5 64
17 108
16.5 122
16 191
15.5 212

 

[railbird]

Circa Million IV Week 5 Full Season Standings: going into SNF:

Week 5 Overall W/L/T record: 8505-9939-1810, 46.1%

Pts #Cappers
20.5 1
20 8
19.5 6
19 15
18.5 27
18 54
17.5 64
17 108
16.5 122
16 191
15.5 212

lots of bogeys today

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa Million IV Week 5 Full Season Standings: going into MNF:

Week 5 Overall W/L/T record: 9599-10586-1810, 47.6%

Pts #Cappers Place
21 2 T1
20.5 1 3
20 6 T4
19.5 12 T10
19 23 T22
18.5 42 T45
18 75 T87
17.5 69 T162
17 126 T231
16.5 130 T357
16 200 T487
15.5 244 T687

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa Million IV Week 5 Full Season Standings and payout if contest stopped:

Week 5 Overall W/L/T record: 10093-11277-1810, 47.2%

Pts #Cappers Place Payout
21 3 T1 $633,333.33
20.5 3 T4 $300,000.00
20 6 T7 $115,000.00
19.5 13 T13 $32,461.54
19 33 T26 $16,159.09
18.5 45 T59 $4,550.00
18 85 T104
17.5 74 T189
17 131 T263
16.5 137 T394
16 206 T531

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa survivor entries alive per name (count of multiple entries), going into Week 6:

#PerName Count
1 431
2 89
3 20
4 1
5 3
6 5

718 alive out of 6133.

The average weekly elimination percentage rate is 33.3%.

If that % persists, does anyone have an estimate of how long the contest will continue until a sole survivor is crowned?

 

[railbird]

Circa Million IV Week 5 Full Season Standings: going into MNF:

Week 5 Overall W/L/T record: 9599-10586-1810, 47.6%

Pts #Cappers Place
21 2 T1
20.5 1 3
20 6 T4
19.5 12 T10
19 23 T22
18.5 42 T45
18 75 T87
17.5 69 T162
17 126 T231
16.5 130 T357
16 200 T487
15.5 244 T687

if i went 4-1 would have solo lead

 

[railbird]

Circa survivor entries alive per name (count of multiple entries), going into Week 6:

#PerName Count
1 431
2 89
3 20
4 1
5 3
6 5

718 alive out of 6133.

The average weekly elimination percentage rate is 33.3%.

If that % persists, does anyone have an estimate of how long the contest will continue until a sole survivor is crowned?

rooting for everyone to be eliminated by Hannukah

 

[ComptrBob]

The average weekly elimination percentage rate is 33.3%.

If that % persists, does anyone have an estimate of how long the contest will continue until a sole survivor is crowned?

At an attrition rate of 33.3%, around 3 will survive thru the 20 selections.

 

[railbird]

good news, everybody is getting annilhlated today

 

[ComptrBob]

good news, everybody is getting annilhlated today

For sure ....

Circa survivor Week 6 going into the PM games: Survive: 18 (Colts, Vikings, Commanders, Bengals), Eliminated: 328 (45.7%), 372 pending, no ticket: 0.

Equity per entry: $15,725.64

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa survivor Week 6 going into MNF: Survive: 339 (Colts, Vikings, Commanders, Bengals, Rams, Eagles), Eliminated: 336 (46.8%), 43 pending (Chargers), no ticket: 0.

 

[railbird]

tough point spread beat on jags today

 

[railbird]

tough point spread beat on jags today

pederson calls to, when colts were content kicking 53 fg, big mistake

 

[pro analyser]

While everyone was involved with the revenge angle of Bills Kc. Bigger revenge angle next week with SF over KC. First meeting since KC beat SF in Superbowl. Also playing Jags over Giants and Wash over GB. Like this week both teams played in London last week,played again this week,and must play again following week which should take a toll.

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa Million IV Week 6 Distribution going into MNF:
Points #Entries Place
25 1 1
24.5 1 2
24 3 3
23.5 0 6
23 4 6
22.5 9 10
22 20 19
21.5 34 39
21 58 73
20.5 54 131
20 106 185
19.5 110 291
19 186 401
18.5 183 587

 

[sharky99]

Crazy carnage for survivor pools this year, I only know of 2 guys still alive in Circa, seems like every week this year there's big moneyline losers compared to not long ago when it seemed every big favorite was escaping games late.

 

[Woodrow Wilson]

I'm hanging on with 2 remaining in Draft Kings, but eliminated from Circa.

 

[Murphy’s Best]

I started with 2 Circa Survivor entries & lost week 1 with the Titans on a missed FG. I am still alive with my second entry.

 

[Woodrow Wilson]

MB, nice work and you have a chunk of equity being alive at this point.

 

[ComptrBob]

Five entrants had each bought 6 entries and had them all still alive thru Week 5. Now 1 has four alive, 1 has 3, 1 has 2 and 1 has 0 alive.

The other one has all 6 on the Chargers tonight!

 

[sharky99]

cool stay in it for the long haul fellas!

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa survivor Final Week 6: Survive: 382 (Colts, Vikings, Commanders, Bengals, Rams, Eagles, Chargers, Eliminated: 336 (46.8%), no ticket: 0.

Equity: $16.054.97

 

[ComptrBob]

Circa survivor entries alive per name (count of multiple entries), going into Week 7:

#PerName Count
1 277
2 39
3 4
4 1
5 1
6 1

 

[Woodrow Wilson]

2 no picks is baffling.