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ZzyzxRoad

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
I'm willing to bet I'm the only person in America looking forward to the Redskins-Dolphins game. As bad as the Dolphins are, if there is a game they can win, this is it. Even if they are in full tank mode, they should have just enough pride to come in under the number. I have a hunch the 3 and a half will be big.
Leans are Eagles at +3, Saints at ok, and Cards at +1.5. Browns-Seahawks looks like one of the more interesting matchups, but I hate betting west coast teams playing the 10 o'clock start time.
 
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kane

kane

EOG master
I'm looking forward to the Skins/Fins game, the Dolphins will have to play even worse than they already have to stay ahead in the "tank for Tua" race, I'm worried they'll blow it and win this Sunday, big game for Miami and their long suffering fans. haven't capped any games yet, but just glancing at the board I might fade the Ravens off their big win against the Steelers, and even though the Bengals are bad, they do have losses by 1,4,and 3 points, a bounce or two and they could have a couple wins. I might also fade the Saints, they're coming off three nice wins against Seattle, Dallas, and a division rival in Tampa, and Jax has been a spunky team under Minshew, if Darnold is healthy I could see myself on the Jets, the Cowboys have a huge game next week against the Eagles, I wish they would have beaten the Packers to make the spot even better, but Dallas will be one of the public's biggest plays, both SU and in teasers, but if Darnold is out, no chance I put my money on Luke Falk, he has no business being in the NFL. MNF looks interesting, I'm sure the public will hammer the Packers after watching them dismantle the Cowboys, but this Lions team might be for real, they beat the Chargers and Eagles, and should have beaten the Chiefs. Again, these are just early observations, and nothing official. As far as teasers go, the Titans, Seahawks, and Cardinals look good
 
kane

kane

EOG master
X-Files said:
Blindly betting NE has been a money train for years. Why stop now?
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No team has cost me more money betting against them through the years than NE, nowadays I pick my spots to fade them very carefully, and this week will not be one of those spots
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
kane said:
No team has cost me more money betting against them through the years than NE, nowadays I pick my spots to fade them very carefully, and this week will not be one of those spots
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there are a lot of bettors had many losing NE bets since brady & belechick teamed up including me... Bettors thought the patriots were a myth.
 
TheGuesser

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
The winner of the Miami- Wash game is Cinn. One less tean they have to beat for the #1 draft choice.
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
I think that Washington/Miami game is going to be Washington in a landslide. New intern coach for the Redskiins. Players hear a new voice as Gruden must of been falling on deaf ears. Many Redskins were very upset from the loss on Sunday.

Westgate look ahead line was Wash -6.5

Gruden fired. Line is Wash -3.5. Gruden isn't worth 3 points and Miami coming off a bye isn't worth anything. Old school handicapping that doesnt' work anymore. Kind of like I heard cappers talking about that it was a better situation for the Bears to fly over on Thursday night instead of the Raiders flying over on Monday and getting accustomed to the time change. How did that go.

I see a home run spot for a team that isn't in take mode. Miami is in need of that #1 pick more than Washington is.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Quarterbacks the NE defense has faced the last 4 games: McCoy, Josh Allen, Luke Falk and Fitzpatrick.

How bad has the Jets offense been? They have a grand total of THREE red zone trips so far this season. And how bad is the Jets O-line? Philly had a total of 3 sacks in their first 4 games; they erupt for 10 vs the horrific Jet O-line.

Baltimore has been outgained yards per play in their last 4 games. They are a fraud.
 
dfish

dfish

EOG Addicted
kane said:
No team has cost me more money betting against them through the years than NE, nowadays I pick my spots to fade them very carefully, and this week will not be one of those spots
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Liking this post for every local in NE
 
ZzyzxRoad

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
Jets +8.5 for a unit. Nowhere for them to go but up, and can't imagine anyone's eager to bet them. Sounds good to me!
 
kane

kane

EOG master
ZzyzxRoad said:
Jets +8.5 for a unit. Nowhere for them to go but up, and can't imagine anyone's eager to bet them. Sounds good to me!
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Darnold is expected to play, you're getting a great line, I'll likely be on the Jets, but would have liked them more had Dallas beaten the Packers
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
How are the Chargers favored over anyone but the 4 losers at the bottom by 6.5 or 7 is beyond me. Steeler fans are going to overrun that place on Sunday, will be an extra home game for them. Chargers are signing guys off the street and probably starting them due to injuries. Who is seriously laying points?
 
Sol Diablo

Sol Diablo

House of Heat
WildBill said:
How are the Chargers favored over anyone but the 4 losers at the bottom by 6.5 or 7 is beyond me. Steeler fans are going to overrun that place on Sunday, will be an extra home game for them. Chargers are signing guys off the street and probably starting them due to injuries. Who is seriously laying points?
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Line is all about the trash Pittsburgh will most likely have to roll out there at QB.

Big PASS for me. I’ll look elsewhere for action.
 
howid

howid

EOG Dedicated
Week 6 NFL: Bigrunner can call me a "fucking idiot" a million times and no one cares. But the moderators censor my whimsical thread titles


yeah.
 
X-Files

X-Files

2
X-Files said:
Blindly betting Brady, Belichick & NE has been a money train for years. Why stop now?
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Pats improve to 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS on the year.

Next up: in the spotlight again, & at the Jets, on MNF on the 21st.

With a mostly cupcake schedule so far, after the Jets they'll have tougher teams to deal with for the following 6 weeks.

The Pats offence looked "off" on MNF, but how much did the weather & NYG jinx have to do with that? The last Super Bowl showed they don't need the great offences of the past to "go all the way" since, after all, "defence wins championships". But they could sure use Antonio Brown, eh? And Stephen Carroll Gostkowski.
 
X-Files

X-Files

2
Re Cowboys -7 at Jets +7, i found this rousing:

1:00 PM EST. What case can be made here for the Jets? They've been waffled in three of their games this season, including last week's 31-6 no show in Philadelphia. To be fair, Gang Green was forced to throw third string quarterback Luke Falk into the fire after Sam Darnold was sidelined with mono and Trevor Siemian was knocked out of New York's 23-3 Monday Night Football loss to Cleveland. The Falk era is now over, at least for now, as Darnold has been cleared to play. Even with the return of their starting pivot, the Jets carry about as much market appeal as the Dolphins and Skins, which is why this line is so curious.

In a season where oddsmakers are hanging double digit spreads on bottom feeding teams like they are going out of style, this number stands out like a sore thumb. We often discuss on our podcast that the books are not in the habit of posting bad numbers and they must consider the many wagers available to the market, including money line parlays and teasers. Those exotic bets are going to be the focus here, as it's going to be very tempting to tease the Cowboys down to -1 or include them to "pump up" every money line parlay made on Sunday. If the line itself wasn't a big red flag, this is a tough sandwich spot for Dallas. It is coming off a high profile game against the Packers last Sunday that ran unopposed in most markets as Fox's America's Game of the Week. On deck, the 'Boys have a Sunday night showdown with the Eagles at home in Big D. We'll remind you that the last time the Cowboys were in a lookahead spot like this was Week 3 at home to the Dolphins with a Sunday night date with the Saints coming in Week 4. The Cowboys slept through the first half and if they were playing anyone but the Fish, they would’ve got caught but let’s put all that aside and get into public perception.

The Jets are 0-4. Like the Dolphins and ‘Skins, they’re winless. The Jets have lost their last three games by a combined score of 84-23 and 14 of those points against New England came when the Jets were down 31-0. Take away those garbage points and that combined score would be 84-9. Like the Dolphins and ‘Skins, the Jets are getting whacked week after week after week. Meanwhile the ‘Boys crushed its first three opponents (Giants, Redskins and Dolphins) before losing to the Saints and Packers the past two weeks. Do you see a pattern here because we sure do. Dallas blows out weak teams and loses to quality ones although last week’s loss to Green Bay was hugely misleading. Dallas has a top-ranked offense and after two straight losses, it is not in a position to look ahead or take anyone lightly. One can draw one of two conclusions here, this is either the worst number oddsmakers have posted this season or the Cowboys are the sucker bet of the day and because we’re not sure, we’re going to have to see where this number goes before committing to anything. If we’re in the prediction business, it’s Dallas by 28 but we’re not so let’s wait until Sunday to make any decisions.
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https://www.sportswagers.ca/nfl/picks.php?pid=23391
 
TobyTyler

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
I'm honestly confused by xfiles posting links all the time, from touts I assume? Is he just sharing info? Or is he plugging them for some reason? I never open the links so I don't know.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
TobyTyler said:
I'm honestly confused by xfiles posting links all the time, from touts I assume? Is he just sharing info? Or is he plugging them for some reason? I never open the links so I don't know.
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Sherwood isn’t a tout (the links). He has posted his plays for free for years. In fact, Sherwood despises them.
 
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