MLB 2025

Here's Tatis' Fangraphs page. Yes, he is making more contact. But its not like he's become Ichiro. But just look at the year to year slugging percentages. The Padres should be allowed out of that contract. It clearly was juice related. One more point, while I've always liked WRC+ as a good metric, I find it hard to believe Tatis' WRC+ is still 130. It must really highly value K/BB ratio as that is the one number that has really improved.

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Valuist said:
Here's Tatis' Fangraphs page. Yes, he is making more contact. But its not like he's become Ichiro. But just look at the year to year slugging percentages. The Padres should be allowed out of that contract. It clearly was juice related. One more point, while I've always liked WRC+ as a good metric, I find it hard to believe Tatis' WRC+ is still 130. It must really highly value K/BB ratio as that is the one number that has really improved.

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yes the padres overpaid they got fooled.... tatis signed with BLA.. They front up money and get 10% of earnings after going to the majors so he could get money early...someone lost there.....He is still a solid player BUT he is not a hitter like guerrero either
 
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Valuist said:
Milwaukee 13 straight wins. I don't want to get in from of this train. But there could be a let down.....overcame a 7-1 deficit yesterday. Once the win streak is broken, they are an auto fade the next game. Have to wonder if they are peaking too early. A few years back, the Indians went on a 22 game win streak (not their World Series year) and they fizzled out in the playoffs. Same with the A's in the Moneyball season. Brewers also 16-1 in last 17 and 13-3 over in last 16. Who saw this kind of offense from Milwaukee?
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Bases isn't my thing but don't some of the advanced metrics indicate they have been very fortunate at the plate?

Come playoffs and better pitching I think offensively there is going to be a notable deflation in certain offensive areas.

I'll try and pick my spots but overall looking to fade, think they're going to be a little overpriced.
 
Patrick McIrish said:
Bases isn't my thing but don't some of the advanced metrics indicate they have been very fortunate at the plate?

Come playoffs and better pitching I think offensively there is going to be a notable deflation in certain offensive areas.

I'll try and pick my spots but overall looking to fade, think they're going to be a little overpriced.
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Their August BABIP is .327, compared to a YTD .304. Also their HR/FB pct for August is 16.4%, compared to a YTD of 11.6%, so both are candidates to regress.

But I also think some players are just better than we thought or expected. I had no idea Isaac Collins would be a strong contender for RoY. Sal Frelich? I thought of him as a defensive outfielder. He's hitting around .300 w/a WRC+ of 130. Andrew Vaughn? He was a castoff the White Sox sent when the Brewers wanted to unload Civale. Vaughn is batting .320 and slugging .578 since joining the team. At the beginning of the season, Chourio and Hoskins figured to be two of the biggest bats. Neither has played a game in August.
 
Yep, absolutely. Ashamed to admit I had to google Isaac Collins earlier this year, LOL.

I guess some of that is to be expected from best record in baseball club but for sure several big surprises.

Still not sure it's sustainable but we'll see how it plays out.

(Looking at the winds but thinking of a Brewer play this afternoon)
 
Dodger pitching coach Prior said yesterday they're contemplating using Ohtani out of the pen for the playoffs...

It's a good move if they need a strikeout or two in the late innings. He's still throwing 98 and splitter as good as ever..

His problem right now is too much middle/in with his pitches.
 
Heim said:
Dodger pitching coach Prior said yesterday they're contemplating using Ohtani out of the pen for the playoffs...

It's a good move if they need a strikeout or two in the late innings. He's still throwing 98.
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Their rotation is as healthy as it's been all year. They can go with Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, and Kershaw in whatever order they want, they're also expected to get both Scott and Yates back to fortify the pen, putting Ohtani in the pen isn't a bad idea, it limits his innings and keeps him fresh to hit
 
MrTop said:
i see it dropped a lot....but they are winning by 5 in the 8th......do we chop anything off the 70 cents ? or is it what it is ?
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When it kept dropping I was tempted to play them at the reduced price but decided not to. I don't know what you mean by chop anything off the 70 cents
 
kane said:
When it kept dropping I was tempted to play them at the reduced price but decided not to. I don't know what you mean by chop anything off the 70 cents
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i am guessing here...if they are blowing out colorado...they did not need him... so i am thinking he is not as much as the price...... can anyone be worth 70 cents??
 
MrTop said:
i am guessing here...if they are blowing out colorado...they did not need him... so i am thinking he is not as much as the price...... can anyone be worth 70 cents??
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70 cents seemed like an overreaction, they didn't need him because they were playing the Rockies, his absence would be felt more against a real team
 
Dodgers have 3 games and the rest of the month to build a lead. September almost certainly will be the Padres month. At least win 1 game this time.
 
Padres shit the bed last weekend but this is still impressive vs Boston, San Fag twice and Dodgers:

8-5

They have 3 more with the Dodgers and 3 at Mariners then smooth ⛵️ to September 28.

 
If the worse and worse happens and Padres get swept again, it is going to be Tony Homo. Of course the edge to Dodgers up 4 and tb but that is a doable deficit. Come on now. Rockies have a bettor you bet record than the Dodgers since the All Star breaking bad. There is no way that could happen and Dodgers still an elite team. They are very good only and vulnerable.
 
Kane,

I know you follow the Marlins pretty closely. Who is this guy Marsee? He's been on fire. One of my favorite props is the total bases H2H that Bookmaker offers. Bet Marsee at even money over Barger of Toronto.
 
Valuist said:
Kane,

I know you follow the Marlins pretty closely. Who is this guy Marsee? He's been on fire. One of my favorite props is the total bases H2H that Bookmaker offers. Bet Marsee at even money over Barger of Toronto.
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Jacob Marsee, they got him from the Padres in the Arraez trade. He was tearing it up in the minors, so they traded Jesus Sanchez to give him playing time. From day one he's been hitting, and hitting for power, he has a nice swing and a great eye at the plate. To me the hardest thing for a rookie is plate discipline, understanding the strike zone, swinging at the good ones and taking the bad ones, this kid has tremendous plate discipline, doesn't swing at bad pitches and will gladly take a walk, most rookies over swing, trying too hard to impress, Marsee has a great approach at the plate. He also has good speed, he hasn't been in the majors long, and we'll see how he does the second and third time through the league, once pitchers get a book on him, they'll make adjustments, they'll find his weakness, so he'll also have to adjust, but from what I've seen so far the kid's a keeper. He looks like he's been in the league for a few years, he hasn't played like a rookie and he plays like he knows he belongs. Of course no way to know what he'll be long term, but as of now he's been very impressive.
 
Zack Wheeler out for the season with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. From what I've read this could be a career ending injury, devastating for the Phillies if true
 
We talk about hitter/pitcher matchups. Let's try to track some days. Criteria: hitter must have at least 10 at bats vs that starting pitcher.

The GOOD matchup team for Sunday: Freddie Freeman, Stott, Matt Olson, Lindor, Realmuto, Javy Baez, Zach McKinstry, Alonso, Bogaerts and Ohtani.

The BAD matchup team for Sunday: Albies, McNeil, Schwarber, Riley Greene, Carpenter, Adam Frazier, Lux, Teoscar Hernandez, Rooker, and Langaliers.

Yes, there will be some bias because generally, the "good" team will have better players. But as we see with the "bad" team today, there's some good players in there like Schwarber, Greene, Teoscar and the two A's.

Bookmaker.eu has Lindor matched up vs Albies.
 
i am losing today for the sweep with the dodgers....BUT the padres are a different team with the JULY 31st pick ups... and they don't whiff with pretty darn good relief
 
Valuist said:
We talk about hitter/pitcher matchups. Let's try to track some days. Criteria: hitter must have at least 10 at bats vs that starting pitcher.

The GOOD matchup team for Sunday: Freddie Freeman, Stott, Matt Olson, Lindor, Realmuto, Javy Baez, Zach McKinstry, Alonso, Bogaerts and Ohtani.

The BAD matchup team for Sunday: Albies, McNeil, Schwarber, Riley Greene, Carpenter, Adam Frazier, Lux, Teoscar Hernandez, Rooker, and Langaliers.

Yes, there will be some bias because generally, the "good" team will have better players. But as we see with the "bad" team today, there's some good players in there like Schwarber, Greene, Teoscar and the two A's.

Bookmaker.eu has Lindor matched up vs Albies.
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Neither did very well, although the good group hit for more power and a higher slugging pct. Both had weak BA's today:

Good group: 35 AB 6 runs 5 hits 5 RBI 3 home runs .143 BA .400 SP
Bad group: 36 AB 5 runs 6 hits 4 RBI 1 home run .167 BA .278 SP

Freeman carried the good group, and he had the biggest sample size of the good group (39 ABs 15 hits)
 
I don't think Trout got a hit the entire Cub series. Even the Cub announcers were wondering what's up with the future HOFer.

They should have taken the deal with the Phillies for prospects and a front line player especially with Ohtani getting ready to hit FA.

Trout had some value then. Bound by the Trout contract they had to let Ohtani go.
 
Heim said:
I don't think Trout got a hit the entire Cub series. Even the Cub announcers were wondering what's up with the future HOFer.

They should have taken the deal with the Phillies for prospects and a front line player especially with Ohtani getting ready to hit FA.

Trout had some value then. Bound by the Trout contract they had to let Ohtani go.
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He was awful, a lot of K’s.
 
Valuist said:
Not only is his BA down, but look at the slugging pct; under .500 2 of the last 3 years, and the only year he did it was in 2024, a 29 game season for him.
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The slide started in 2022, this is now year 4, one yr is a down year, 2 could be injury related, 4 yrs with the trend continuing to slip means he might be done.(as a top player).
 
mr merlin said:
The slide started in 2022, this is now year 4, one yr is a down year, 2 could be injury related, 4 yrs with the trend continuing to slip means he might be done.(as a top player).
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he is making about 37 million.... LOL he has this robbery going on for a lot more years..... he should be a man and quit but he probably wants 2000 hits plus more homers .plus 450 homers

no doubt he still brings in the kids
 
Its probably been injury related, but north of 30, that's a cumulative thing. He broke his wrist in middle of 2023. That's a major injury for a hitter. Don't think we will ever see again the player he was 10 years ago.

As for the broken wrist, that's on him (and the team) as he was sliding head first into 2nd base. When will these teams coach the head first slide OUT of the players? Everyone wants to be Pete Rose or Ricky Henderson.
 
Again, interesting that Trout's numbers have tanked since he signed that 425m extension in 2019.

In his interviews he comes across as Gomer Pyle, but his team knew what they were doing.

See Tatis...
 
Heim said:
Again, interesting that Trout's numbers have tanked since he signed that 425m extension in 2019.

In his interviews he comes across as Gomer Pyle, but his team knew what they were doing.

See Tatis...
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He had a 10 yr period of an OPS near 1000(or more), which is incredible, he was also healthy most of that time.

Now he's hurt, usually worried about being hurt and thinks his body is a treasure that must be protected, right now he's not a top player but merely a solid player, solid players dont get to be pampered, they need to play.

Trouts mantra for the last few years is every time he's sore he cant play, most of the time there's no detectable injury, guys who are sore making super high salaries need to play.
 
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