MLB futures

Valuist

EOG Master
Have to bet them early before the lines move much.

Toronto Under 92 1/2 (Twin Spires) -113
Chicago Cubs Over 77 1/2 (Bookmaker) -110
Seattle Under 88 1/2 (BetRivers) -125
Minnesota Over 82 1/2 (Twin Spires) -114
Byron Buxton Under 31 1/2 HRs -114
Fernando Tatis Jr Under 34 1/2 HRs -118
Carlos Rodon Under 225 1/2 strikeouts -114

Interesting I noticed that BetRivers, Twin Spires and BetJACK all have the same MLB futures lines. I wasn't aware they were affiliated.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Betting injury-plagued players to UNDERperform.

Makes sense.

Yes, but in Tatis' case, its not just the injury history. The PEDs have to be considered. How legit were his HR numbers before?

I saw a matchup, somewhere, between Ohtani and Tatis for HRs. Ohtani was a narrow favorite. All day.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I was reading an article on Tatis. When the White Sox drafted him, he was a better fielder than he was as a hitter. They mentioned he had some raw pull power, but he was a decidedly lower prospect than Franmil Reyes' younger brother was. And obviously he had the bloodlines to become a major leaguer. Ultimately the White Sox traded him for James Shields in what might be one of the most lobsided deals in recent history. So how did it happen? OK, Tatis apparently grew a couple inches since he was drafted. And he figured to get stronger. But how much? One can't ignore the impact PEDs had. Not only the increase in power, but subsequent nagging injuries.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I like the Cubs over also. Actually a pretty winnable division, may only need 86-88 wins. They will be buyers if they continue to improve.

I’m sure I’ll be on the White Sox under in some form, whether it’s team or players. No reason they shouldn’t be better than what they are in that division, but here they are.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I like the Cubs over also. Actually a pretty winnable division, may only need 86-88 wins. They will be buyers if they continue to improve.

I’m sure I’ll be on the White Sox under in some form, whether it’s team or players. No reason they shouldn’t be better than what they are in that division, but here they are.
I'm not sure what to do with the White Sox. They were fortunate in 1 run games (27-16), but they were hit very hard by injuries. But now there's the lymphoma issue with Hendricks.

Cleveland was very good in 1 run games (28-17) and their bullpen was very good. A very young team so they are expected to improve. I'm not 100% on board, but Tito will usually have them making less dumb mistakes than their opponents. I still think there's questions with the offense.

With the Cubs, their pitching was hit very hard by injuries. Their projected 1-4 of Hendricks/Stroman/Smyly/Miley only made about half their scheduled starts. So guys like Steele and Thompson weren't bad in most of their starts. Steele figures to be the #5, I'm bearish on Milwaukee but the market is as well. St Louis seems priced about right, and taking Contreras from the Cubs is big. I was puzzled by the add of Bellinger but I do like the pickup of Mancini. And I understand Suzuki played much of last season with an injured finger, and in his second season stateside, I can see improvement.
 
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FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I'm not sure what to do with the White Sox. They were fortunate in 1 run games (27-16), but they were hit very hard by injuries. But now there's the lymphoma issue with Hendricks.

Cleveland was very good in 1 run games (28-17) and their bullpen was very good. A very young team so they are expected to improve. I'm not 100% on board, but Tito will usually have them making less dumb mistakes than their opponents. I still think there's questions with the offense.

With the Cubs, their pitching was hit very hard by injuries. Their projected 1-4 of Hendricks/Stroman/Smyly/Miley only made about half their scheduled starts. So guys like Steele and Thompson weren't bad in most of their starts. Steele figures to be the #5, I'm bearish on Milwaukee but the market is as well. St Louis seems priced about right, and taking Contreras from the Cubs is big. I was puzzled by the add of Bellinger but I do like the pickup of Mancini. And I understand Suzuki played much of last season with an injured finger, and in his second season stateside, I can see improvement.
White Sox best move this off-season was replacing LaRussa
 
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Heim

EOG Master
Yes, but in Tatis' case, its not just the injury history. The PEDs have to be considered. How legit were his HR numbers before?

I saw a matchup, somewhere, between Ohtani and Tatis for HRs. Ohtani was a narrow favorite. All day.


I saw a reel with Ohtani taking batting practice in Arizona last week. It was obvious he's physically bigger this year, the ball was flying off his bat.
 

kane

EOG master
I saw a reel with Ohtani taking batting practice in Arizona last week. It was obvious he's physically bigger this year, the ball was flying off his bat.
Enjoy him while you can Heim, he ain't gonna be around for much longer
 

kane

EOG master
Unless they decide to deal Trout.
I would have to give it some strong considersation, when you think about his injury history, his value might be higher now, once the season starts, if he gets hurt, then what. Trout would bring back a big package, you've already gotten his best years, keep Shotime and build around him
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Have to bet them early before the lines move much.

Toronto Under 92 1/2 (Twin Spires) -113
Chicago Cubs Over 77 1/2 (Bookmaker) -110
Seattle Under 88 1/2 (BetRivers) -125
Minnesota Over 82 1/2 (Twin Spires) -114
Byron Buxton Under 31 1/2 HRs -114
Fernando Tatis Jr Under 34 1/2 HRs -118
Carlos Rodon Under 225 1/2 strikeouts -114

Interesting I noticed that BetRivers, Twin Spires and BetJACK all have the same MLB futures lines. I wasn't aware they were affiliated.

Did u see a HR total # on Judge?
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Yep. Giants and Yankees will make a run. Doubt Angels want to carry two mega contracts.

Unless they decide to deal Trout.

They have that NOW..............the disastrous Rendon deal.

IF the Angels do sign Ohtani they will have 3 contracts whose combined AAV will be about $115M-ish. Good luck fielding a decent team with 3 players making that much money when they don't figure to spend more than another $115M for the other roster spots
 

kane

EOG master
Julio Urias to win the NL CY (+2000)

Two years ago he finished 7th in the voting, last year he finished 3rd, he led the NL in ERA, was 3rd in WHIP, and 3rd in BA against. In each of the past three seasons he's lowered his ERA and WHIP, this could be the year he wins it, +2000 looks high to me
 

Heim

EOG Master
Pitching is the key & besides Ohtani they do not have enough. Injury history of Trout & Rendon are a concern again….

Yep. It's hard to play any future price on them. Trout has become injury prone since he bulked up.

The bright spot I see in the limited ST play, Adell might finally get it up at the plate.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Not sure if there were any Suzuki props up, but I would look to the under on any of them. This goes for any player who suddenly bulked up. Suzuki is out with an oblique injury.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Not sure if there were any Suzuki props up, but I would look to the under on any of them. This goes for any player who suddenly bulked up. Suzuki is out with an oblique injury.

I heard he played most of 2022 with a finger injury which limited power. I don't know if there are any Suzuki props but if he's at 15 1/2 HRs, I'd go over.
 

kane

EOG master
Zach Wheeler NL CY +1200
Yu Darvish NL CY +3300

Trea Turner NL MVP +1400

Yordan Alvarez AL MVP (+1200)
Vlad Jr AL MVP +1500
 

Heim

EOG Master
Cubs over is a very trendy pick, however a quick infusion of vets into a young team never amounts to much.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
over is a very trendy pick, however a quick infusion of vets into a young team never amounts to much.
injury luck was not on their side last year. The projected 1-4 starters missed about 50 pct of their expected starts. Any regression to the mean and they should move toward 80-82 wins, IMO.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
They are more likely to be buyers than sellers, the division isn’t that strong.

Agreed. St Louis should be a prohibitive favorite. But there's a number of questions with their pitching staff. Wainwright has decided to stick around for one more year and he was still good last year. But at his age, it can go bad quickly. Mikolas will be 35 this year. Flaherty has thrown a total of just 154 innings from 2020-2022. Montgomery is probably the favorite to lead the Cardinals in innings. Unless Mikolas can continue his late career turnaround. Matz? Remember how good he was in 2015-2016 with the Mets? Since then he hasn't been very good. They should win the division but they don't have the pitching to advance in the playoffs, IMO.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I was just watching a guy on You Tube go thru his MLB season win totals. I really think many people have no idea how to handicap season win totals. He would just pull out the 2022 final standings, look at additions and subtractions, then give his prediction (which was OVER in probably 70% of the teams). You can't just take a teams W/L record from last year at face value. You have to look at what made that up; what Bill Parcells said only applies to coaches talking to players. It does NOT apply to handicappers. We are always looking for teams who's records do NOT reflect their true ability.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Looking at the Dodgers, I don't see how they win 96 games. Get past Betts and Freeman, and the offense doesn't scare anyone. Urias probably the true #1 starter now. Kershaw will turn 35 this month. I'm still not sold on Gonsolin.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
the cardinals management is one of the best. Hard to count them out with winning the division any year.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Fezzik MLB future prop:


'Yes' A team will lose 100 games -400


The numbers are as follows: Since they went to 162 games it has happened 85 times.

Fezzik calls it a 95 percent play, so naturally some value at -400.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
The Cardinals are the franchise every other team in the division strives to be, but never are
Always helps to have 3 small market teams in the division. The cubs, can’t explain them, but they may be turning the corner a bit.
 
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