MLB June 23

V

Valuist

EOG Master
Big number on the Salami at 147, but there is some BAD pitching going today. Yeah, you have DeGrom, Verlander and Soroka, but other than that, does anyone strike fear? Even Verlander has been fortunate, stranding 93% of all baserunners. I guess one could add Hamels, who's been in good form, but he really doesn't strike fear into anyone. Check out some of the Expected WOBAs: Brault .346, Senzatela .370, Anderson (SF) .354 , Kelly .353, Norris .349, Plesac .342, Pineda .345, Bailey .336, Nova .355, Sampson .364, Ynoa ,363, Kikuchi .343, Brett Anderson .353. It looks like garbage pickup day.

I haven't bet Yanks/Houston yet, but how do you bet a road favorite on a 7 game losing streak while the home team has won 8 in a row? Good luck trying to find the end of both streaks. I lost two bets yesterday just due to poor decision making, betting Washington full game, instead of first 5, as they blew an 8-4 lead after 5 to lose the game, and laying a run and a half with a home team (Texas), and of course Texas won by exactly one run. Never lay a run and a half with a home team. Too often you never bat in the 9th inning.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
MrTop said:
astros still missing 2 of their best hitters correa & springer
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Yes they are. And they still are favored. No doubt Verlander is one of the best pitchers in MLB. But that 93% LOB rate figures to come down at some point.

Here's some names missing from starting lineups for the early games: Devers, Realmuto, Myers, Corey Dickerson, Brian Dozier, Stanton, Cain, Schoop, Conforto, Contreras and Urshela. Hard to believe I'm putting Urshela in there, but he has hit well this year.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Valuist said:
Big number on the Salami at 147, but there is some BAD pitching going today. Yeah, you have DeGrom, Verlander and Soroka, but other than that, does anyone strike fear? Even Verlander has been fortunate, stranding 93% of all baserunners. I guess one could add Hamels, who's been in good form, but he really doesn't strike fear into anyone. Check out some of the Expected WOBAs: Brault .346, Senzatela .370, Anderson (SF) .354 , Kelly .353, Norris .349, Plesac .342, Pineda .345, Bailey .336, Nova .355, Sampson .364, Ynoa ,363, Kikuchi .343, Brett Anderson .353. It looks like garbage pickup day.

I haven't bet Yanks/Houston yet, but how do you bet a road favorite on a 7 game losing streak while the home team has won 8 in a row? Good luck trying to find the end of both streaks. I lost two bets yesterday just due to poor decision making, betting Washington full game, instead of first 5, as they blew an 8-4 lead after 5 to lose the game, and laying a run and a half with a home team (Texas), and of course Texas won by exactly one run. Never lay a run and a half with a home team. Too often you never bat in the 9th inning.
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Another reason to not lay the run and a half with the home team is, if they have a two run lead in the ninth and a batter reaches first, since his run means nothing, typically they allow him to "steal" second on catcher's indifference. I'll never forget one time I laid the run and a half with the Yankees, they were playing at the Mets and had a two run lead in the ninth, with Mariano Rivera coming in I felt pretty good, until the Mets got a lead off runner on first, he wasn't even being held on and promptly took second, a ground out got him to third with one out, another ground out scored him as the Yankees obviously didn't care about his run. I rarely lay the run and a half, but when I do it's always with the road team. Also if the game it tied going into extras, the road team can score multiple runs whereas if you have the home team your only chance is a HR with someone on base
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Good points, and when I lay the run and a half, its almost always with the road team. I tried justifying thinking Despaigne is garbage (which he is) and Lance Lynn had been in excellent form. The Rangers can hit, especially at home. But the Sox jumped on Lynn in the first, and actually led a good portion of the game.
 
S

Stevo

EOG Senior Member
Kane:

Also if the game it tied going into extras, the road team can score multiple runs whereas if you have the home team your only chance is a HR with someone on base

Just happened with Minny two nights ago. KC ties it at 3 in 8th and they go to xtras. Minny proceeds to score 2 and cover run line in top of 10th I think. They are beasts.
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
Tatis just scored from 3rd after a popup just past infield dirt...called out at home...call overturned
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
In this age of Home Run Derby, the run-and-a-half in extra innings cannot be as strong as before.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
St. Louis just doesn't have a good vibe this season. Bad chemistry? We've heard how they are supposed to rip left handed pitching with all their RHH, but it hasn't happened. Didn't even score vs Skaggs. Goldschmidt over the top? They don't have a #1 starter. Seems like a bunch of 4s and 5s. Who will win more games, Cincinnati or St. Louis? Right now, I lean toward the Reds.
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
John Kelly said:
Defensive indifference is the bane of an under bettor's existence.
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I'd also put the disintegration of quality bullpens, too. Used to be when someone was called in from the Pen they did their job. Now - you never know if they will put out out the fire or pour gasoline on it
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Valuist said:
St. Louis just doesn't have a good vibe this season. Bad chemistry? We've heard how they are supposed to rip left handed pitching with all their RHH, but it hasn't happened. Didn't even score vs Skaggs. Goldschmidt over the top? They don't have a #1 starter. Seems like a bunch of 4s and 5s. Who will win more games, Cincinnati or St. Louis? Right now, I lean toward the Reds.
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pecota had them #1 in the division. I agree with Valuist. I do not see anything.
 
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