Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
#1
So many momentum reversals today!

Washington snapped a 7 game losing streak, however they are playing a hot FLA who is on a 4 game win streak. Both teams sending crap pitchers to the mound, with FLA having the slight edge. 1/4 bet or no bet.

PHI had a 3 game win streak snapped. They are sending Cole Hamels to the mound against SD. SD snapped a long win streak wednesday and were a fade for Thurs, however, they won. Cold Hamels has an impressive 2.40 career ERA against SD, however Chris Young has a 1.96 career ERA against PHI. Chris Young has had two fantastic starts on the year, with Hamels giving up 7ER in his first outing. At +152, SD is the bet for me. Fade PHI.

SEA had a 6 game win streak snapped. They play DET who beat CWS 9-0 on wednesday. Verlander had a crap first start and a great 2nd, and has a solid career ERA against SEA. Felix Hernandez had a great first start and a shaky 2nd... Fade SEA is the bet for me. DET +110. Over could also be a play here ... one of these pitchers doesn't show up imo.

MIL Snapped 4 game losing streak on Wednesday ... day off in between hurts momo, especially sending a worse pitcher to the mound. 1/4 bet or no bet.

BOS snapped 3 game losing streak... pitching matchup for me = 1/2 bet on BOS.

COL snapped 3 game lose streak, but sending weak pitcher against red hot LAD. 1/4 bet or no bet.

CIN snapped 3 game win streak but had a day off on thurs. HOU just finished long road trip with a couple wins. Oswalt has been shaky in first two starts but has a career 2.50 ERA against CIN. 1/2 bet on HOU.


** double reversal: KC snapped 3 game win streak wednesday. TEX snapped 5 game lose streak thursday with 19 runs. They face friday. Gil Meche, a great pitcher has a career era in the 6's against TEX. With 15 appearances,he has 4 wins and 9 losses. TEX pitcher isn't fantastic, but this is a double bet for me on momo and meche's career stats. Double bet on TEX.

Best of luck guys ...

:thumbsup
 
#3
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

This is this one of the most important aspects in baseball!Ive played and coached forever and one week everything will fall into place,eg bloopers will fall in, the next week you hit the ball square and it is right at someone!Kudos for you for realizing this and keep on posting!
 

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
#4
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

Agree Shaker :) Momentum is like a universal principle to me ... can be applied to almost anything in the universe .
 

munson15

I want winners...
#5
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

I love this angle but have never seen any hard data to support it. Will you track/play this all year? I'd love to see some lines and bets associated with this theory. Thanks.
 

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
#7
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

Munson, I haven't seen any data on it either ... It's made me money though, not like that means anything though obviously. I will play it most of the season... wasn't planning on tracking it with actual stats... I've never been a statistician, though I guess I could start now hehe.

Problem is, I don't play every single momo shift .. pitching matchup etc must justify it, atleast a little bit. I think to track it we'd have to count every single 3 game shift regardless of matchups... guess it wouldn't be that difficult actually. I'll try tracking it I guess :) If anyone else is good at this sort of thing, feel free to track as well to compare results at year end... as baseball betting is just a hobby here :)
 

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
#8
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

Let's track a few things:

Single 3 game+ momentum reversals

Double 3 game+ reversals (where both teams facing eachother come in on a reversal)

and then lets see if there is any difference betwen 4 game reversals, 5,6,7 etc. Would seem to mewhen a team has a 9 game win streak snapped, there will be more of a momentum backlash than a 4 game streak snapped. However, if a team snaps a 10 game losing streak, how much upside momentum is there? As there spirits might already be crushed.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#9
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

Let's track a few things:

Single 3 game+ momentum reversals

Double 3 game+ reversals (where both teams facing eachother come in on a reversal)

and then lets see if there is any difference betwen 4 game reversals, 5,6,7 etc. Would seem to mewhen a team has a 9 game win streak snapped, there will be more of a momentum backlash than a 4 game streak snapped. However, if a team snaps a 10 game losing streak, how much upside momentum is there? As there spirits might already be crushed.
I'm tracking some stuff in my thread, if you don't/can't do it, let me know. I remember a theory that stated that a team that has a win streak snapped is a good fade as a favorite the next 10, this is a twist on that. A lot simpler, actually, since you are only going for the very next game.

I like fading losing teams that are coming off long winning streaks, it seems once they finally lose after a 5< win skein, they revert to form, and are great to go against with the price usually not adjusted downward yet.
 

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
#10
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

I'll give the tracking on it a go...should we just start the data today? Backtracking seems like a pain or a system I am already playing lol
 

Madman81

EOG Enthusiast
#12
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

Nolasco is a crap pitcher? Not a chance. Bad defense caused his first start against the Nats to look a lot worse than it was. Look for him to dominate. Florida only being a small favorite is a gift.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#13
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

maybe we should separate the reversals by dogs / favs on the line
I'm sure you only missed a couple of plays prior to yesterday, so I would start there. Separating by dogs and faves sounds like a good idea, because the value lies in the dogs, I believe. GL, I'm fascinated to see how it plays out.:cheers
 

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
#14
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

Ok ... I will create a separate thread tomorrow with the results, starting with yesterdays 1-2 loss. Will keep it simple.. sepparating dogs / favs on 3-5 game streak snaps, and faves/dogs on 6+ streak snaps.
 

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
#16
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

systems failing miserably so far munson .. lol ? :/

I think if there is a day off in between the broken streak and the next game it is a no play .. gonna try that going forward.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#17
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

systems failing miserably so far munson .. lol ? :/

I think if there is a day off in between the broken streak and the next game it is a no play .. gonna try that going forward.
Still early and the premise is solid.:cheers
 

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
#18
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

will divide up initial data going forward. Munson, since I will not be including reversals that have a day off in the future, should i also not include those that have already happened in the initial data?
 

munson15

I want winners...
#19
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

will divide up initial data going forward. Munson, since I will not be including reversals that have a day off in the future, should i also not include those that have already happened in the initial data?
I think they have some validity and maybe could be tracked as a subset. I don't think they will perform very poorly, the day off gives them time to feel good and be positive into the next game and shouldn't blunt whatever momentum they may have.
 

kayvebear

EOG Dedicated
#20
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

Alright....

making the spread sheets now to back track the season from start till now. I'll have it avail via email in a couple hours hopefully ... and will hopefully have the time and energy to keep it up to date. I should be able to keep it current till end of june, afterwards I am travelling for two months so hopefully someone will be willing to pick it up then.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#21
Re: Momentum Reversal plays for Friday

Alright....

making the spread sheets now to back track the season from start till now. I'll have it avail via email in a couple hours hopefully ... and will hopefully have the time and energy to keep it up to date. I should be able to keep it current till end of june, afterwards I am travelling for two months so hopefully someone will be willing to pick it up then.
If we decide it has some value, I will pick up where you leave off.91023i2ndw;l
 
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