Monday Oct 14: NBAX Warriors @ Lakers

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Posted this in the Daily BB Thread where I got +135 but even +105 and only +2 is good. Sent this to JK about 90 minutes ago:


Warriors ML +135: Not gonna bother taking 3 points cuz I won't need it. Warriors have been off since Thursday. Lakers played Saturday. IN FREAKING CHINA! Game started at 4:30A here. After the game the Lakers took a 12-hour flight home but with a 15-hour time difference actually arrived home 3 hours before the left China. Now they've got to play a game 48 hours after coming home from CHINA! Let me repeat that again....playing a game 48 HOURS AFTER COMING HOME FROM CHINA! I don't see how they have any legs for this one. I don't expect LeBron to play although I actually wish he would since no way he has any legs for this one. Warriors should be plenty motivated here since these 2 met in the first game at the Warriors new Chase Center and the Lakers kicked their butts, winning by 20. Warriors will be rested and playing a dead tired team. I sense Lakers tank this game so that Thursday when the 2 play again they are better rested. I think the Warriors are gonna smoke them and smoke them but good winning by at least 10+ and maybe 20+. Don't think this game is close and not close from the opening whistle and 2h could get very ugly cuz if Warriors get a chance to run up the score they will. Might also wanna look at Lakers TT Under 114 cuz I don't expect them to score a lot here and I don't think they even top 100.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Lebron and Davis out.

Green and DeAngelo Russell out.


I predict a coming out party for Laker David Stockton
 

Heim

EOG Master
Hard game to capp....Lakers have a plethora of guards vying to make the team with only 1-2 slots open.

GSW has the same issues but at forward

Unlike NFLX were you can gauge the QBs, NBAX ain't that easy.

GL to the 'Duck'.....he got a decent price.
 
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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
-172 ML @ Pinnacle now. -4 -112..

No real shock. What I expected. Books opened up a bad line and really anyone who knew anything knew this which is why betting has been one way traffic. Normally I'd be worried about it but not here. Total has also gone from 224 to 218.5 and I stand by what I said earlier - I don't expect the Lakers to top 100 or even get close

Might not win but any time you get +130 when it is now -175 ya can't complain
 
Warriors 98, Lakers 104 Final

GS made a run, winning the 4th Q handily, but came up a bit short in the end, shooting only 36.2% to LAL 41.8%.

The total came in well below the number of 219, opening at 224.5.
 
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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
I got the best number and felt good about it. Felt even better when Joe Fortenbaugh, who lives in the CA Bay Area, made Warriors his BB

BUTTTTTTTTTTTT

Sometimes what you think will happen and what actually does are 2 very different things.
 

bmiller

EOG Addicted
I seen Joe Fortenbaugh make the Warriors his best bet on espn daily wager show using the exact same angles as posted in this thread .. it is obvious Joe is stealing plays from the forums .. I kinda new the Warriors would be in big trouble as soon as i seen Joe make the Warriors his best bet on ESPN
 

bmiller

EOG Addicted
I got the best number and felt good about it. Felt even better when Joe Fortenbaugh, who lives in the CA Bay Area, made Warriors his BB

BUTTTTTTTTTTTT

Sometimes what you think will happen and what actually does are 2 very different things.
Yup i seen that lol but i knew it would be a loser when i seen Joe make it a public play on ESPN
 

Heim

EOG Master
It came down to Norval from Gonzaga and Jackson from Notre Dame all out to stick versus GSW Poole, with a roster spot, shooting them out of it early. As I said earlier guys trying to make a roster don't worry about fatigue.
 
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Heim

EOG Master
I'm curious to see what the Lakers do with Greek Freek II. He showed flashes last night with the same mannerisms as his brother. He just can't shoot free throws.
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Good cap winky. I have to agree.

It's hard enough trying to beat 11 to win 10. But add on to that trying to give the right reason makes trying to go 2-0 very difficult.

Is it better to win the reason side of the bet or the bet itself?

Feel you were 1-1 here.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Good cap winky. I have to agree.

It's hard enough trying to beat 11 to win 10. But add on to that trying to give the right reason makes trying to go 2-0 very difficult.

Is it better to win the reason side of the bet or the bet itself?

Feel you were 1-1 here.

The bet itself

Having a "right side loser" doesn't pay the bills
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Only in the very long run especially if the market is somewhat efficient. Beating the closing line in NBA exhibition may well not produce profits.
I was being a bit "tongue in cheek".

I agree. Beating the close in any preseason sport probably doesn't mean you have things figured out.

On another note do you have a tout record update for 2019. The usually suspects. Teddy Covers, wagertalk crew, bettoriq.
 

ComptrBob

EOG Master
II've stopped tracking Teddy and have never tracked the Wagertalk crew.

As far as BettorIQ season to date, DrinkyourMilkShake (CFB) is doing well, Waz not (NFLX, NFL):

Drink: 36-29, +7.90u (86-71-5, +4.75u for picks emailed to me)
Waz: 11-14, -4.55u

An interesting stat, in Week 6, Drink had his only seriously bad week going 5-11 in his picks emailed to me early in the week. In that week, he beat the closing line in every single pick!
 

bmiller

EOG Addicted
so 2 days ago the Warriors closed as 4 point favorites and now tonight the same 2 teams at the same site and the spread is Lakers - 7 .. preseason game with 11 point swing in 2 days lol
 
Curry & Thompson not playing for GS tonight & Lebron is in for LAL.

Presently the Lakers are destroying GS by 26 points (@ HT) & won by 6 last time when Curry played & Lebron was out.
 
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Heim

EOG Master
Without Curry GSW looks like a expansion team. Not the stats but just his presence on the court & moving the offense.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Up 28 in preseason & Lebron, Davis in the game. Vogel said 30 minutes but dude one goes down there goes the season.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Only in the very long run especially if the market is somewhat efficient. Beating the closing line in NBA exhibition may well not produce profits.
when dink is giving his plays to spanky for middles , its less hard to beat closer. beating closer in colllege totals is extremely easy nba X is a money grab
 
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