Monticello Raceway

#9
Re: Monticello Raceway

I'm not very savvy with the horses.

It's extremely difficult to beat and I never really invested much time or effort into learning the tricks of the trade.

Lately, I've been experimenting with a theory with small $ amounts, usually $15-$30 on each of W/P/S.

My theory is, that unlike sports wagering, the horse market is actually an INEFFICIENT market. Therefore, I take horses that opened at lower odds, and closes at much higher odds. Over the last week or two, I've had tremendous success doing so. I do realize this is most likely a matter of variance, but I will continue to ride it out until I'm proven otherwise.

I've made quite a few $400+ hits on $45 wagers.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#15
Re: Monticello Raceway

I would examine your wagering strategy in terms of place and show bets.

I don't believe the risk is worth the return.
 
#16
Re: Monticello Raceway

I would examine your wagering strategy in terms of place and show bets.

I don't believe the risk is worth the return.
Appreciate the heads up JK.

As I stated earlier, it's just an experiment as I've never even considered wagering a large percent of my bankroll on something that I've seen virtually everyone lose at.

I honestly do believe that my theory holds some merit. Is it concrete? Absolutely not. But my belief that the horse racing market is inefficient is something that I'm certainly intrigued by.

Can you please further explain the reasoning behind the risk not being worth the return? I've never bothered to dabble in the mathematics regarding the horses. I'm assuming it has to do with the ridicuously large take-out, but again, I'm simply throwing out guesses at this point.
 
#19
Re: Monticello Raceway

Tried to post but didn't get a chance.

Hit #4 in Race 6 at Arlington. Opened as the second biggest favourite, rose to over 20-1, and hit $550 on a $15 W/P/S wager.

As long as it remains profitable, I will continue on.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#20
Re: Monticello Raceway

The breakage in the place and show pools is difficult to overcome.

A horse scheduled to pay $2.99 returns only $2.80 at most racetracks.

Additionally, the concept of "net pool pricing" is applied at some racetracks, a policy which typically reduces the payouts of well-fancied runners in the place and show pools.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#21
Re: Monticello Raceway

The breakage in the place and show pools is difficult to overcome.

A horse scheduled to pay $2.99 returns only $2.80 at most racetracks.

Additionally, the concept of "net pool pricing" is applied at some racetracks, a policy which typically reduces the payouts of well-fancied runners in the place and show pools.
What does it do to the other runners?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#22
Re: Monticello Raceway

"Net pool pricing" obviously boosts the payouts of the other horses but it hurts the house quiniella payouts here in Las Vegas when two horses dominate the action.

Why the secret algorithm to determine place and show payouts?
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#23
Re: Monticello Raceway

"Net pool pricing" obviously boosts the payouts of the other horses but it hurts the house quiniella payouts here in Las Vegas when two horses dominate the action.

Why the secret algorithm to determine place and show payouts?
LOL, it hurts the house quinella in Vegas? Who else should we worry about? Billy Bob running numbers in Cowpuke Falls?
It was implemented to co-mingle international pools. ( I think you knew that though). I think there are more positives than negatives and the smart guys can figure those out.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#24
Re: Monticello Raceway

I liked it better when I could compute the place and show payouts without guessing at a racetrack's method of computation.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#25
Re: Monticello Raceway

I liked it better when I could compute the place and show payouts without guessing at a racetrack's method of computation.
Exchange rates aren't fixed. And be honest for one second because both of us know the answer to this- were you calculating show payouts before net pool pricing? Of course you weren't. But you really seem to enjoy putting down the sport whenever you get the opportunity on this site.

You should bring this up on your South Point show. Right after the commercial break when South Point begs to bring in horse players, tell the listeners how net pool pricing is another in a long list of negatives that's killing the sport.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#27
Re: Monticello Raceway

Don't want to criticize the sport but a jockey at Los Al misjudged the finish line in today's fourth race.

Embarrassing.
 

pbovi

EOG Dedicated
#28
Re: Monticello Raceway

Don't want to criticize the sport but a jockey at Los Al misjudged the finish line in today's fourth race.

Embarrassing.
That's why they should have machines calling balls and strikes.

Humans make dumb mistakes from time to time, and that one was pretty bad. He's going to need a hug by tomorrow.
 
#29
Re: Monticello Raceway

Don't want to criticize the sport but a jockey at Los Al misjudged the finish line in today's fourth race.

Embarrassing.
that's not what happened and shoemaker did that in a huge race...baseball players forget how many outs there are...basketball players have fouled intentionally very late in tie games not knowing score
 
#30
Re: Monticello Raceway

Did he really misjudge the finish line?

Cause it looked to me that he didn't even realize the 5 was there and just thought that he won.
 
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