Rangers901
EOG Member
#2 - Caviart Jett
W/P/S
:cheers
W/P/S
:cheers
Monticello Raceway
- Thread starter Rangers901
- Start date
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
Got down on him 5 minutes ago at 40-1. Unfortunately, odds have dropped considerably to 6-1.
Got down on him 5 minutes ago at 40-1. Unfortunately, odds have dropped considerably to 6-1.
Re: Monticello Raceway
Which race, Rangers901?
Which race, Rangers901?
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
Sorry R8. Going off in a minute.
Sorry R8. Going off in a minute.
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
Hit the #4 W/P/S in the 7th race and it won at 10-1. Tried to post but by the time I logged in it has gone off.
Hit the #4 W/P/S in the 7th race and it won at 10-1. Tried to post but by the time I logged in it has gone off.
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
Closed 17-1.
Closed 17-1.
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
I'm not very savvy with the horses.
It's extremely difficult to beat and I never really invested much time or effort into learning the tricks of the trade.
Lately, I've been experimenting with a theory with small $ amounts, usually $15-$30 on each of W/P/S.
My theory is, that unlike sports wagering, the horse market is actually an INEFFICIENT market. Therefore, I take horses that opened at lower odds, and closes at much higher odds. Over the last week or two, I've had tremendous success doing so. I do realize this is most likely a matter of variance, but I will continue to ride it out until I'm proven otherwise.
I've made quite a few $400+ hits on $45 wagers.
I'm not very savvy with the horses.
It's extremely difficult to beat and I never really invested much time or effort into learning the tricks of the trade.
Lately, I've been experimenting with a theory with small $ amounts, usually $15-$30 on each of W/P/S.
My theory is, that unlike sports wagering, the horse market is actually an INEFFICIENT market. Therefore, I take horses that opened at lower odds, and closes at much higher odds. Over the last week or two, I've had tremendous success doing so. I do realize this is most likely a matter of variance, but I will continue to ride it out until I'm proven otherwise.
I've made quite a few $400+ hits on $45 wagers.
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
Race 9
#7 - Live As One (Currently 13-1)
W/P/S - $15 ($45 total)
:cheers
Race 9
#7 - Live As One (Currently 13-1)
W/P/S - $15 ($45 total)
:cheers
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
Well, I had to choose between the 7 and the 8, and I picked the wrong one. #8 closes 7-1 and places.
Well, I had to choose between the 7 and the 8, and I picked the wrong one. #8 closes 7-1 and places.
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
Race 10
#4 - Hd's Dream Boy
W/P/S - $15 ($45 total)
Race 10
#4 - Hd's Dream Boy
W/P/S - $15 ($45 total)
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
#4 opened as the second biggest favourite and has now reached 10-1.
#4 opened as the second biggest favourite and has now reached 10-1.
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
#4 closes 8-1 and places.
#4 closes 8-1 and places.
Re: Monticello Raceway
I would examine your wagering strategy in terms of place and show bets.
I don't believe the risk is worth the return.
I would examine your wagering strategy in terms of place and show bets.
I don't believe the risk is worth the return.
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
Appreciate the heads up JK.
As I stated earlier, it's just an experiment as I've never even considered wagering a large percent of my bankroll on something that I've seen virtually everyone lose at.
I honestly do believe that my theory holds some merit. Is it concrete? Absolutely not. But my belief that the horse racing market is inefficient is something that I'm certainly intrigued by.
Can you please further explain the reasoning behind the risk not being worth the return? I've never bothered to dabble in the mathematics regarding the horses. I'm assuming it has to do with the ridicuously large take-out, but again, I'm simply throwing out guesses at this point.
Appreciate the heads up JK.
As I stated earlier, it's just an experiment as I've never even considered wagering a large percent of my bankroll on something that I've seen virtually everyone lose at.
I honestly do believe that my theory holds some merit. Is it concrete? Absolutely not. But my belief that the horse racing market is inefficient is something that I'm certainly intrigued by.
Can you please further explain the reasoning behind the risk not being worth the return? I've never bothered to dabble in the mathematics regarding the horses. I'm assuming it has to do with the ridicuously large take-out, but again, I'm simply throwing out guesses at this point.
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
Race 11
#1 Southwind Krystal
W/P/S - $15 ($45 total)
Race 11
#1 Southwind Krystal
W/P/S - $15 ($45 total)
fifty cint
EOG Dedicated
Re: Monticello Raceway
Long live the Mighty M...:cheers
Long live the Mighty M...:cheers
Rangers901
EOG Member
Re: Monticello Raceway
Tried to post but didn't get a chance.
Hit #4 in Race 6 at Arlington. Opened as the second biggest favourite, rose to over 20-1, and hit $550 on a $15 W/P/S wager.
As long as it remains profitable, I will continue on.
Tried to post but didn't get a chance.
Hit #4 in Race 6 at Arlington. Opened as the second biggest favourite, rose to over 20-1, and hit $550 on a $15 W/P/S wager.
As long as it remains profitable, I will continue on.
Re: Monticello Raceway
The breakage in the place and show pools is difficult to overcome.
A horse scheduled to pay $2.99 returns only $2.80 at most racetracks.
Additionally, the concept of "net pool pricing" is applied at some racetracks, a policy which typically reduces the payouts of well-fancied runners in the place and show pools.
The breakage in the place and show pools is difficult to overcome.
A horse scheduled to pay $2.99 returns only $2.80 at most racetracks.
Additionally, the concept of "net pool pricing" is applied at some racetracks, a policy which typically reduces the payouts of well-fancied runners in the place and show pools.
Re: Monticello Raceway
"Net pool pricing" obviously boosts the payouts of the other horses but it hurts the house quiniella payouts here in Las Vegas when two horses dominate the action.
Why the secret algorithm to determine place and show payouts?
"Net pool pricing" obviously boosts the payouts of the other horses but it hurts the house quiniella payouts here in Las Vegas when two horses dominate the action.
Why the secret algorithm to determine place and show payouts?
Re: Monticello Raceway
LOL, it hurts the house quinella in Vegas? Who else should we worry about? Billy Bob running numbers in Cowpuke Falls?
It was implemented to co-mingle international pools. ( I think you knew that though). I think there are more positives than negatives and the smart guys can figure those out.
LOL, it hurts the house quinella in Vegas? Who else should we worry about? Billy Bob running numbers in Cowpuke Falls?
It was implemented to co-mingle international pools. ( I think you knew that though). I think there are more positives than negatives and the smart guys can figure those out.
Re: Monticello Raceway
I liked it better when I could compute the place and show payouts without guessing at a racetrack's method of computation.
I liked it better when I could compute the place and show payouts without guessing at a racetrack's method of computation.
Re: Monticello Raceway
Exchange rates aren't fixed. And be honest for one second because both of us know the answer to this- were you calculating show payouts before net pool pricing? Of course you weren't. But you really seem to enjoy putting down the sport whenever you get the opportunity on this site.
You should bring this up on your South Point show. Right after the commercial break when South Point begs to bring in horse players, tell the listeners how net pool pricing is another in a long list of negatives that's killing the sport.
Exchange rates aren't fixed. And be honest for one second because both of us know the answer to this- were you calculating show payouts before net pool pricing? Of course you weren't. But you really seem to enjoy putting down the sport whenever you get the opportunity on this site.
You should bring this up on your South Point show. Right after the commercial break when South Point begs to bring in horse players, tell the listeners how net pool pricing is another in a long list of negatives that's killing the sport.
Re: Monticello Raceway
Loved doing the quick math in the place pool when the favorite and a longshot ran 1-2.
Loved doing the quick math in the place pool when the favorite and a longshot ran 1-2.
Re: Monticello Raceway
Don't want to criticize the sport but a jockey at Los Al misjudged the finish line in today's fourth race.
Embarrassing.
Don't want to criticize the sport but a jockey at Los Al misjudged the finish line in today's fourth race.
Embarrassing.
Re: Monticello Raceway
Humans make dumb mistakes from time to time, and that one was pretty bad. He's going to need a hug by tomorrow.
That's why they should have machines calling balls and strikes.
Humans make dumb mistakes from time to time, and that one was pretty bad. He's going to need a hug by tomorrow.
Re: Monticello Raceway
that's not what happened and shoemaker did that in a huge race...baseball players forget how many outs there are...basketball players have fouled intentionally very late in tie games not knowing score
that's not what happened and shoemaker did that in a huge race...baseball players forget how many outs there are...basketball players have fouled intentionally very late in tie games not knowing score
BrianLaverty
Banned
Re: Monticello Raceway
Did he really misjudge the finish line?
Cause it looked to me that he didn't even realize the 5 was there and just thought that he won.
Did he really misjudge the finish line?
Cause it looked to me that he didn't even realize the 5 was there and just thought that he won.