Mr. Over/Under Week 10 Betting (55-41-3, 57.3%)

#1
Record: 55-41-3, 60.2% (Over/Unders: 12-6, Sides: 7-5-1, Teasers: 11-10, Props: 8-12-2, ML: 2-0, 2nd Half: 3-3, Live: 12-5)
Amount: +$172
(Parlays: 1-1, not reflected in my overall $$ amount or record)

5-8 last week, including losing my two biggest bets of Week 9 -- a teaser and a prop. Chargers +16 last week actually killed three teasers which is a shame because that?s generally a method I like to follow of grabbing a superior team on the road (In this case, Chargers compared to Dolphins) when they?re +3 for the game so that way you can have them getting more than two touchdowns! But in this instance it failed me. The other was that Kenny Britt prop and despite having two catches at half (I had over 3 receptions), he recorded no more and was hurt in the beginning of the fourth quarter and did not return, which is always a shame for any player prop bet.

But we put it behind us and move on to Week 10. Honestly, I?m excited for this schedule and believe it?s a profitably week for most. Lots of potentially good games to anticipate and have a beat on. This is what I have:


Falcons -2? (Bought ? P) @ Buccaneers - $120 to win $100
Analysis: I?m a big Matt Ryan fan so I?m trying not to be biased here but can you really see these Falcons drop to 2-7? On paper, this is clearly one of the most talented teams in the NFC. Unfortunately for them, their hopes have been gashed by significant injuries to their offensive line -- much like last year if you remember -- but in recent weeks, their revamped line has improved, and if that continues, Ryan should continue his usual great work with his usual great weapons. The defense, too, has improved since early on in the season when everyone was dogging them, and going up against an offense in transition with Josh McCown making his first start back in several weeks, that could play to their advantage. Oh, and they did already beat Tampa Bay this year by about 40 points. If Atlanta is to start living up to their exceptional talent, now is the time to do it and stay alive in the playoff race.


Cowboys -7 @ Jaguars - $29 to win $25
Analysis: I?m actually surprised the line for this isn?t higher. Really? The title-contending Cowboys are just favored by a touchdown -- with Tony Romo back today -- against the one-win Jaguars in a neutral setting? If this was in Dallas, Jacksonville would probably be getting 13 (Going based off the fact that the Colt McCoy-led Redskins, who are barely better than the Jags, were getting 10? on MNF in Dallas only a few weeks ago) so this is a line to take advantage of. As for further analysis, it?s not really needed. The Cowboys are one of the best teams in football this year and are facing a very turnover-prone QB in Blake Bortles, although I do like him to eventually develop into an upper-tier quarterback.


Dolphins/Lions O43 - $77 to win $70
Analysis: Above everything, the Lions are back at full strength on offense. With Calvin Johnson back, not to mention Reggie Bush, this high-octane unit is finally back and restored, which could lead to a big day for Matthew Stafford, who generally plays better at home in the dome anyway. The Dolphins made a huge statement last week, especially Ryan Tannehill, so you can?t really expect any major drop-off or anything like that, and with the line as low as 43, that makes it very vulnerable for an over. The only thing I?m worried about is the health of Lamar Miller, who single-handedly makes his club?s offense much more dynamic. The two backs behind him are dreck, so it?s key that Miller is close to his normal self in this one.


49ers/Saints O47 (Bought 2 P) - $45 to win $30
Analysis: I absolutely love this spot for Colin Kaepernick. He?s returning to the venue where he played an outstanding Super Bowl, and was good in the Super Dome last year as well. As a result, I have no doubts about his outlook for this game. In fact, if you do Fanduel, I HIGHLY recommend him as your QB. He?s going to bring it with all of his tools in this important affair for San Francisco. The Saints, meanwhile, don?t need any introduction as it pertains to their average performance at home. This could easily be a shoot-out, and the Niners are missing Patrick Willis on defense, too.



Teasers to be posted in a bit, just getting these more important bets up as early as I can
 
#2
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 10 Betting (55-41-3, 57.3%)

Teasers:

BAL +3?, DEN +1?, SEA +4?, CHI +22 - $52 to win $40

BAL +3?, DEN +1?, SEA +4?, MIA/DET O30 - $39 to win $30

DAL +6, SF +19, DEN +1?, CHI +22 - $26 to win $20

CLE/CIN U58?, BAL +3?, DEN +1?, SEA +4? - $26 to win $20

DEN +1?, MIA/DET O30, CHI +22, DAL +6 - $26 to win $20
 
#4
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 10 Betting (55-41-3, 57.3%)

Looks like a solid start so far. But here's one of my best bets of the day:

Andre Holmes O3? Receptions - $100 to win $100
Analysis: If you haven't heard much about Andre Holmes just yet, it won't be long before you do. Here's someone that has flashed a ton of talent in his one and a half years in Oakland, posting a few monster games along the way. I'm not saying he's going to have a monster game in this one, but he only needs more than three catches? In a game where you have to figure they'll be trailing decisively for most of it? That means Oakland will be passing, passing, passing -- as a lot of teams do when they play Denver -- which could only mean profitable numbers from the young stud Holmes.
 
#10
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 10 Betting (55-41-3, 57.3%)

Unable to get my Week 11 thread up just yet so I'm putting my first Week 11 play HERE:

Kyle Orton O21? Completions - $35 to win $30
Analysis: A little bit of a curious decision from Vegas to put Orton's number that low, considering:
A)There's no Fred Jackson tonight, so with Dixon and Brown (Although I do feel Brown is still underrated after that monstrous showing he had back in 2012 with the Eagles) leading the run game again, the Bills might be more dependent on their passing than usual.
B)The "usual" I refer to in Point A is the fact that Orton has attempted 38 or more passes in four of his five starts, completing 24 or more in four of the five as well. The one time he didn't accomplish those two feats? The game against the Jets when Geno Smith had a bazillion turnovers, leading to an easy decisive lead for the Bills right out of the gate. The Dolphins are not the Jets, of course, so we should expect Buffalo to proceed with their usual offensive strategy: throw the ball a lot and let Orton pile up the statistics.

Good luck!
 
#12
Re: Mr. Over/Under Week 10 Betting (55-41-3, 57.3%)

Zylbertttttttttttttt. Give us an essay on how you were fired by VegasInsider for scamming your record.

:pop:
 
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