Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
Good Luck Munson
Good Luck Munson
Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
- Thread starter munson15
- Start date
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
I hear you, I about lost my mind when Hanrahan walked the first guy and allowed a double to the next in the 9th. Had them all weekend, and figured it was another flush job. But hey, they have 3 wins and all have been as home dogs, so they have won some of it back for me.:cheers
cassiusclay
EOG Master
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
munson, do you think sometimes you "work" 2 hard or put 2 much thought into these systems? no disrespect intended but i read alot of threads on alot of sites, there are so many differences of opinion on systems...just my 2 cents.
munson, do you think sometimes you "work" 2 hard or put 2 much thought into these systems? no disrespect intended but i read alot of threads on alot of sites, there are so many differences of opinion on systems...just my 2 cents.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
In my basketball thread, I had hundreds of plays over the course of the NBA season, and hit 56%. I only posted them starting in January because there is not enough time in the day to keep up with everything at once. Certainly a worthwhile venture. My m.o. on systems is to take as much subjectivity out of the equation as possible. I am posting lines that are either the line I played, or the best line I saw for a system being tracked.
I've always been drawn to home dogs in baseball and have always either broke even or come out ahead. This has been going on 7-8 years. I've bet football for 30 years, but baseball always kicked my ass. The only reason I've come back to baseball this decade is because I felt I had a workable model that made sense, made money and was not time-consuming.
Each season I've tried to add a wrinkle or tweak something I've already been doing to improve my game. I play several more 'systems' in baseball but I can't post everything and keep my business going. I keep meticulous records on all my betting and know my balances in all my books. This is what works for me. Do I spend too much time or 'work' too hard at it? Not as long as I am winning and can get paid. I hope that answers your question.
I'll tell you what Cassius, I'm not sure what the question means, but I'll give it a shot. Some of these threads are just a convenient way of tracking something that makes me accountable for the results. That way, I 'work' to shop lines and come up with the best result.
In my basketball thread, I had hundreds of plays over the course of the NBA season, and hit 56%. I only posted them starting in January because there is not enough time in the day to keep up with everything at once. Certainly a worthwhile venture. My m.o. on systems is to take as much subjectivity out of the equation as possible. I am posting lines that are either the line I played, or the best line I saw for a system being tracked.
I've always been drawn to home dogs in baseball and have always either broke even or come out ahead. This has been going on 7-8 years. I've bet football for 30 years, but baseball always kicked my ass. The only reason I've come back to baseball this decade is because I felt I had a workable model that made sense, made money and was not time-consuming.
Each season I've tried to add a wrinkle or tweak something I've already been doing to improve my game. I play several more 'systems' in baseball but I can't post everything and keep my business going. I keep meticulous records on all my betting and know my balances in all my books. This is what works for me. Do I spend too much time or 'work' too hard at it? Not as long as I am winning and can get paid. I hope that answers your question.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
Road Divisional Dogs-------------
col +172
*cin +160
kc +185
Home Divisional Dogs------------
SF +120
WAS +110
*indicates we are either playing on a team on a losing streak of 3< or fading a team on a winning streak of 3<.
Road Divisional Dogs-------------
col +172
*cin +160
kc +185
Home Divisional Dogs------------
SF +120
WAS +110
*indicates we are either playing on a team on a losing streak of 3< or fading a team on a winning streak of 3<.
cassiusclay
EOG Master
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
munson, no doubt your threads are great, my thought is that sometimes the answer to a question is the simplest answer. someday we will talk.... until then keep up the good work.
let's go rockies,
munson, no doubt your threads are great, my thought is that sometimes the answer to a question is the simplest answer. someday we will talk.... until then keep up the good work.
let's go rockies,
bridgetown
EOG Senior Member
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
Munson....your providing great insight. Lots to learn here. Thank you.
Munson....your providing great insight. Lots to learn here. Thank you.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
Well, I think you can see how poorly these divisional road dogs have done on/vs. streaks. 3 is the magic number for me, but that is purely subjective. As far as playing streaks, I would only bet an underdog on a winning streak and fade a favorite on a losing streak. To me, there is no value in fading a losing streak if the team is already an underdog, and vice versa. Justs my .02.:cheers
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
HERE IS A SYSTEM YOU MIGHT WANT TO LOOK AT. CAN BE USED WITH
OTHER SYSTEMS OR STAND ALONE. CAME FROM SPORTS INSIGHTS BASED ON
14,000 GAMES FROM 2003-2008. BET EVERY HOME TEAM THAT HAS LESS
THAN 50% OF THE PUBLIC ON THE HOME SIDE. MONEY LINE BETS ONLY. I HAVE BEEN TRACKING IT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WORKS SO FAR. D44
HERE IS A SYSTEM YOU MIGHT WANT TO LOOK AT. CAN BE USED WITH
OTHER SYSTEMS OR STAND ALONE. CAME FROM SPORTS INSIGHTS BASED ON
14,000 GAMES FROM 2003-2008. BET EVERY HOME TEAM THAT HAS LESS
THAN 50% OF THE PUBLIC ON THE HOME SIDE. MONEY LINE BETS ONLY. I HAVE BEEN TRACKING IT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WORKS SO FAR. D44
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
D44, thanks, but I have never been convinced that any one source can tell me who the public is on. If you track it and like the results, maybe play small with a limited bankroll and see how you do. I would not want to discourage you even if it's not for me.:cheers
D44, thanks, but I have never been convinced that any one source can tell me who the public is on. If you track it and like the results, maybe play small with a limited bankroll and see how you do. I would not want to discourage you even if it's not for me.:cheers
PassTheRock
EOG Master
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
It's startiung to look like Home Divisional dogs is where the money is at.
Good luck, Munson. I think I'll jump on some of these with ya today.
It's startiung to look like Home Divisional dogs is where the money is at.
Good luck, Munson. I think I'll jump on some of these with ya today.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
Thanks, and GL if you do.:cheers
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
BOL
BOL
4625
2
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
Are there enough of us here working these "Divisional Dogs" to cause the books to begin skewing the line? I ask because I'm really not used to winning like this and I'm sure the books are becoming aware of our little money machine here. . .Or am I overestimating the percentage of overall players represented by EOG?
Are there enough of us here working these "Divisional Dogs" to cause the books to begin skewing the line? I ask because I'm really not used to winning like this and I'm sure the books are becoming aware of our little money machine here. . .Or am I overestimating the percentage of overall players represented by EOG?
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Munson's Bases--Dogs, Discussion and Development
Just a word of caution, this thread is generating a ton of plays, and that kind of volume can produce huge momentum swings. Please don't get carried away with bet size, even though we've experienced some early success. GL!
Just a word of caution, this thread is generating a ton of plays, and that kind of volume can produce huge momentum swings. Please don't get carried away with bet size, even though we've experienced some early success. GL!