My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#1
A sports bettor gambling on Sunday's four conference championship games (ACC, SEC, A10 and Big Ten) had a chance to win 12 wagers by simply supporting all four quality underdogs in three separate wagering categories: the first half, second half and full-game result.

Florida State, Vanderbilt, St. Bonaventure and Michigan State all fit the category of power underdogs, teams sporting 20-win seasons with designs on making noise in the upcoming NCAA tourmament.

North Carolina, Kentucky, Xavier and Ohio State were expected to make adjustments after halftime in their respective championship games but none of the four favored teams was able to surge past their opponents in the second half.

Underdogs are especially appealing at this time of the college basketball season for three main reasons: 1) favored teams sometimes play to avoid losing rather than executing to win, 2) important postseason games are played at a more deliberate pace thus making it more difficult for the favored team to win by the assigned margin and 3) neutral court settings usually eliminate huge scoring runs often associated with a team's strong home-court advantage.

I've spotted a trio of live underdogs for the second round of the NCAA tournament (it's silly the NCAA labels the Thursday and Friday games as second-round action as opposed to calling them first-round games and reserving the tag of "Opening Round" for the Tuesday and Wednesday "First Four" games).

In tomorrow's blog entry, I'll detail my support for 727 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE +7.5 over Baylor, 835 BELMONT +3.5 over Georgetown and 854 ST. MARY'S +2 over Purdue.


FREE THROWS AND THREE-POINTERS.....Many of the 67 NCAA tournament games over the next three weeks will be determined by shots from the charity stripe and attempts from beyond the three-point arc. Here's a listing of the top five tournament teams from the free-throw line: LEHIGH (77.4%), NC-ASHEVILLE (77.2%), COLORADO STATE (76.9%), DAVIDSON (76.9%) AND MISSOURI (76.6%). Sharpest shooters from beyond the three-point line are INDIANA (43.3%), CREIGHTON (42.5%), MURRAY STATE (40.7%), COLORADO STATE (40.5%) and TEMPLE (40.2%).


SCHEDULE CHANGE......The remaining four dates for The SportsOptions Showdown have been moved to Wednesday, March 15 and 22 and Thursday, March 16 and 23. Mark Simons, a sports department manager at SportsOptions and 30-year veteran of Nevada's race and sports book industry, will meet High Times (March 15), JakePeavy21 (March 16), brians (March 22) and xbaggypants (March 23) in head-to-head handicapping challenges with $500 awarded to EOG contributors who outsmart Simons. Through eight weeks of this unique event, Team EOG is an impressive 26-13-1 against the spread while Simons, still searching for his maiden victory, is 17-19-4 ATS. Six of the eight contestants representing EOG have posted winning marks, including 4-1 records from dsethi, Railbird, WeinketoWarrick and Joeybagadonuts.


COMING TUESDAY......I'll list the reasons 548 WESTERN KENTUCKY -4 offers value over Mississippi Valley State.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#4
Re: My Monday blog

I think good free throw shooting teams have a better chance of holding form in the tournaments than 3-point shooters. To me, outside shooting is more dependent on familiarity with the building. Thanks for the blog, and GL on the selections.
 
#6
Re: My Monday blog

Gotta think that a smart team that will guard you coming off the bus is not a good match-up for Belmont.Seems like lots of people on Belmont.Tough draw.Too much length & dee for me
 

brians

EOG Dedicated
#7
Re: My Monday blog

A week without blogs and a 3-night hiatus from the EOG Sports Hour and I was starting to crack-out. How did I survive when my EOG world consisted of a Monday & Friday blog only and just a single Winning Wednesdays show?

It's a short number but Belmont jumped out at me as well. Actually I was looking to play against G'Town and Belmont fits my script. But I look forward to hearing your analysis.

St.Mary's was a play-on team for me and it will be hard for me to resist them as a dog. I have to look deeper into the matchups with the Boilermakers but I hope I land on the St.Mary's side.

Ugh - this is usually when I get myself in trouble ... when I start handicapping around a pick.
 

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
#9
Re: My Monday blog

From USA today...
--It's probably not wise to pick against Purdue in its opening-round game. Beginning with the 1994 NCAA tournament, the Boilermakers have won 13 consecutive games in the round of 64. The last time Purdue did not win at least one NCAA tournament game was 1993, when current head coach Matt Painter was a Boilermaker senior point guard. That Purdue team lost in the round of 64 to Rhode Island.

Purdue played OSU tough in Columbus losing by 3 in Feb, dangerous team, good 3 pt shooters...I see a Murray St. type game, Purdue prevails, St. Mary's too reliant on Dellavedova. Big Ten was very good this year, watch out.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#10
Re: My Monday blog

"Team EOG is an impressive 26-13-1 against the spread"

Wow...really impressive.....67%. Those are Gary Greene numbers.

:btj:
 

Heim

EOG Master
#14
Re: My Monday blog

Short-term run of better than 67%.

I'm guessing he's 55% in NCAAB over the past several years.

www.bluebooksports.com

I think it's very interesting that Greene pops up around these parts twice. Once
before CBB season promising to be on the show and right before 'March Madness'
(text OSU). He using you JK for some free publicity and in return you get nothing.
Typical tout bs. btw if Greene is 55% last few in CBB I'm Billy Walters. He coin-flips
every year in conference play according to clients who leak his plays. How good
can you be when you datamine for selections?

Biggest misnomer in sports betting is the bigger the fan the better the gambler.

Greene is superfan.
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
#15
Re: My Monday blog

Anyone remember 'Shortbus' vs Gary Greene on this forum.

I'll see if I can find the thread....

:LMAO
 
#16
Re: My Monday blog

Short-term run of better than 67%.

I'm guessing he's 55% in NCAAB over the past several years.

www.bluebooksports.com
Come on JK don't throw out raw numbers off the top of your head. Why don't we just go to his site and see his documented plays on there. NOPE...nothing on there.

So I'm guessing he is hitting 29% in NCAABB over the past several years. I have a feeling that my percentage is much much closer to what he is really doing.
 
#17
Re: My Monday blog

its out there lurking, we ve all had em
heres to the lights coming on and your in the zone and every thing ya touch turns to gold :cheers
3week 73 percent run
hall lost to rutgers in a needed game then lost by30 to last place dp. to end season ,dont see em coming to play vs a good stony brook team. got a feel on this hall team listen to a lot of games and saw em play a lot, thinl students are on break ,not a lot of fans there no tv point to stony and the points
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#18
Re: My Monday blog

From USA today...
--It's probably not wise to pick against Purdue in its opening-round game. Beginning with the 1994 NCAA tournament, the Boilermakers have won 13 consecutive games in the round of 64. The last time Purdue did not win at least one NCAA tournament game was 1993, when current head coach Matt Painter was a Boilermaker senior point guard. That Purdue team lost in the round of 64 to Rhode Island.

Purdue played OSU tough in Columbus losing by 3 in Feb, dangerous team, good 3 pt shooters...I see a Murray St. type game, Purdue prevails, St. Mary's too reliant on Dellavedova. Big Ten was very good this year, watch out.
Yeah, I saw this stat also, which is making me very indecisive in picking a winner from the two.
 
#19
Re: My Monday blog

Quite a line-move on St. Mary's. They went from underdog (+2) to favorite (-1.5) in barely more than a day.

You shouldn't have bet so much, JK...
 
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