My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Greetings from San Jose, Costa Rica where daytime temperatures reach 80 degrees and overnight temperatures cool to 65 degrees for perfect sleeping weather.

With more than 40% of the United States recently covered in snow, I'm pleased with my timing to explore this climate-friendly country.

I'm also satisfied with the progress made concerning two of three personal goals: a more focused sports handicapping approach and a personal-best fitness level.

The need to improve my Spanish-speaking skills is still a work in progress but Rome wasn't built in a day.

(Sidenote: An Uber driver last week offered an excellent language-learning tip. He suggested I think about how I learned English. When we are two or three years old, we do not know how to read or write. Instead, we name and identify people, things and objects. Soon thereafter, we start connecting the dots to form a sentence and then we start talking in complete sentences.)

Foreigners are allowed to visit Costa Rica 90 days at a time.

The same policy holds true for a majority of the 195 countries in the world.

My 90-day run here ends in March when I will return home to Las Vegas to witness four conference basketball tournaments (Pac-12, MW, WCC and WAC) at three convenient locations located on or near Tropicana Avenue (T-Mobile Arena, Thomas & Mack Center and Orleans Arena).

Selection Sunday is less than a month away.

March Madness is a fabulous time for college hoop fans everywhere and the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament is popular among recreational gamblers who want to play the sport's signature event.

Truth be told, the 32 conference tournaments and the consolation postseason tournaments (NIT, CIT and CBI) offer far better wagering opportunities and professional gamblers know it.

There are significantly more games, interesting rematches, lesser-known teams and less-efficient market pricing for the tournaments that operate in the large shadow of "The Big Dance."

The single biggest problem with the high-profile NCAA tournament: The gambler is at the mercy of the Selection Committee.

Too many times, it seems, the Selection Committee pits vulnerable teams against one another.

Often times, struggling teams from power conferences will battle in the first round.

The bracket also matches surging mid-majors against one another in a competitively-priced first-round matchup.

This season figures to be no different.

Expect at least four and possibly as many as six teams with losing conference records to receive coveted at-large bids.

Last season, five teams with subpar conference records of 8-10 made the rich postseason tournament.

Look for power conferences like the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 to once again appeal the Selection Committee on behalf of its second-division teams.

During yesterday's Ohio State-Michigan State game, CBS commentator Bill Raftery proclaimed Ohio State a tournament team despite the squad's shaky performances of late.

(Sidenote: Raftery's misrepresentation of Ohio State's current form was outdone only by his crazy comment about Michigan State benchwarmer Marcus Bingham. Raftery claimed Bingham will one day play in the NBA. Raftery will believe anything Tom Izzo tells him, no matter how ridiculous the comment. Bingham is a 6-11 freshman who has played only 16 minutes in Michigan State's 15 Big Ten contests with six DNPs because of coach's decision. The Spartans were down two men after Nick Ward (dislocated finger) sat on the bench alongside teammate and roommate Joshua Langford, who was lost for the season in late December with a stress fracture in his left foot. And yet Bingham sat idle on the bench.)

Despite playing shorthanded, the Spartans outscored the hapless Buckeyes, 20-2, in the game's final seven-and-a-half minutes.

The visiting Buckeyes (16-9 overall and 6-8 in conference play) lacked poise and looked disorganized in the late stages of their 62-44 loss to Michigan State.

In the final seven minutes of the game, the Buckeyes registered more turnovers (6) than field-goal attempts (5).

Ohio State dropped to 0-6 against the six teams above them in the conference standings.

Both Ohio State and Michigan State play this Wednesday night at home against underdog opponents.

I'll be looking to fade both squads in their next assignments, thus putting me on Rutgers +19 or so over MSU and Northwestern +8 or thereabouts over OSU.

At times, it's easier to spot perilous favorites than isolate live underdogs.


HEALTH OVER WEALTH.....WINKYDUCK is facing a strong challenge to his health and welfare.

"Winky" was suffering from excruciating back pain over the past three-and-a-half months before finally being admitted to an Orange County hospital for a battery of tests this past weekend.

The longtime EOG contributor, aka Erik from Fountain Valley, California, is a former ESPN employee.

The dedicated sports observer, whose opinions are often spotted in the "Letter to the Editor" section of the Los Angeles Times's sports section, is a man for all seasons known for his interest in a wide range of sports.

For now, Winky will not be posting at EOG after starting a thread titled "Adios -- For Now."

No EOG contributions, no high-school officiating assignments, no weekend runs to Las Vegas and no Secret Shopper or Mystery Shopper jobs.

Getting healthy again will be his sole focus.

Get well soon, Winky.


MONDAY'S BEST BET....Play 853 Illinois +11 over Wisconsin.

Brad Underwood's team is starting to gel.

Watch the tight huddles lately as this young team is focused on Underwood's instructions.

Illinois has won four straight and five of six since losing at home to Wisconsin, 72-60, in late January.

Expect a tighter margin this time around because Illinois was only 4-for-21 beyond the arc in the first meeting.

The rigors of a long season and a short bench may finally be catching up to the overachieving Badgers.

Wisky wins the game but Illinois cashes the bet.
 
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jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
DSI continues to fall short of the mark, and that might be the understatement of the year. After Sunday's first half of the best pick-up game in America, both team Giannis and team LeBrick combined to score 177 points. So g the greek decided to shop around for some second half lines and totals. Team Lebron fluctuated between -7 5 and -8 but yours truly quickly pointed out no total at DSI. However, several other more dependable shops had 160 and 161 available.

Another fly in the ointment for a disgrace of shyster university in addition to a laundry list of other issues, including no 'sportsbook' line feed yesterday for those of you wanting to use bonus points on the busiest sports day of the week, logins freezing up on you to bet on the second quadrant of games, not being able to log in for a period of about 20 minutes, and to only refresh 5 minutes after you game you want to bet goes off the board. Oh, did I mention the fact that the book tells you how many bets and the dollar amount you have open, only to then say 'no pending bets', leaving the capper in the dark to review details.

How this joke of a shop is stll in business is beyond me. It's a shame that those who persuade you to switch shops because of better bonuses, don't care about the customer and make up bullshit excuses to throw it right back in the capper's face. My money is definitely going back across the street. I can certainly understand the occasional glitch, but this place operates like Romper Room.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Your messages have been forwarded to the brass at BetDSI.

Expect a response within 24 hours.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The big bosses will NOT be happy.

Expect a quick resolution.

And I'll be sure to assign you a spot later this year in EOG's Grand Challenge.

You pick the month and it's a done deal.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
You’re lucky you’re in the CR, snowing in Las Vegas.

Wisc is a very tough place to win at, but you’re correct about Illinois jelling.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Good point, FW.

I rarely bet against Wisconsin at home.

Too frustrating.

But if there's a good spot, here it is.

If the game were contested at the YMCA, I think Illinois beats Wisconsin.

Too fast, too athletic.

I love the way Frazier and Dosunwu are playing for Illinois.

Giorgi outplayed Happ in the first meeting.

We're catching 11 points (11.5 right now at CGT) in a game where only 135 points (144, the D-1 average) are scheduled to be scored.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Saw Wisky in Sweet 16 two years in a row with Bo Ryan.

That was the best form of basketball in 21st Century, by far.
 
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railbird

EOG Master
UFC is exciting because of all the contrasting styles.

In college basketball, everyone has same style now, zero variety.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
JK, what does your health regimen include?

Winky, get well soon!!!


FOOD: The modest food choices here in Costa Rica have helped me push away from the table.

The beef here is low-quality so I sometimes crave a juicy steak or tasty hamburger.

Practically no sweets and very little salt.

No Las Vegas buffets either.

EXERCISE:
Thirty minutes of barbell work in the morning and 30 minutes at night.

I hate lifting in the gym.

At least an hour, usually two hours, of basketball every day.

But I need to play with more pace.

Most times, I'm shooting in the playground by myself so that doesn't help my cardio.

I need to run more.

WEIGHT:
I don't weigh myself but I've traded fat for muscle.

I now comfortably fit into my wardrobe.

Though with the weather here, I'm usually sporting a tank top and shorts.

Areas in which I need to improve: Stop all consumption of soda (easier said than done) and become more flexible through stretching.

I also want to find a pool for a daily swim.

How's your fitness level, Keith?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Saw Wisky in Sweet 16 two years in a row with Bo Ryan.

That was the best form of basketball in 21st Century, by far.


I loved betting Bo's teams.

They rarely no-showed.

If memory serves, Ryan's style was widely criticized by college basketball's intelligensia.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
UFC is exciting because of all the contrasting styles.

In college basketball, everyone has same style now, zero variety.


Every team uses the 3-point line but there are subtle differences in the way in which they use it.

I love teams that work inside-out.

Also, when in the shot clock does a team shoot the three-ball?

And who is shooting the 3?

Are his feet set?

Is his shot challenged?

In shooting clinics these days, players are instructed to hold an exaggerated follow-through a la Steph Curry or James Harden, instead of trying to follow their shot.

Times have changed.
 

boston massacre

EOG Master
FOOD: The modest food choices here in Costa Rica have helped me push away from the table.

The beef here is low-quality so I sometimes crave a juicy steak or tasty hamburger.

Practically no sweets and very little salt.

No Las Vegas buffets either.

EXERCISE: Thirty minutes of barbell work in the morning and 30 minutes at night.

I hate lifting in the gym.

At least an hour, usually two hours, of basketball every day.

But I need to play with more pace.

Most times, I'm shooting in the playground by myself so that doesn't help my cardio.

I need to run more.

WEIGHT: I don't weigh myself but I've traded fat for muscle.

I now comfortably fit into my wardrobe.

Though with the weather here, I'm usually sporting a tank top and shorts.

Areas in which I need to improve: Stop all consumption of soda (easier said than done) and become more flexible through stretching.

I also want to find a pool for a daily swim.

How's your fitness level, Keith?



Dump the Soda.

A 12 oz. Can has 9 Teaspoons of Added Sugar/ 37 Grams
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
No doubt, Boston Massacre.

Not sure if I'm addicted to the caffeine or carbonation, or both.

Tough nut to crack.
 

puckhandler

EOG Dedicated
I have cut 90 percent of my pop soda intake since Jan 1st and have lost 10 pounds. Also drink bottled water everyday.
 

kane

EOG master
You're getting a great number John, BOL tonight, Illinois has been playing inspired ball of late, hopefully their solid play continues
 

railbird

EOG Master
Every team uses the 3-point line but there are subtle differences in the way in which they use it.

I love teams that work inside-out.

Also, when in the shot clock does a team shoot the three-ball?

And who is shooting the 3?

Are his feet set?

Is his shot challenged?

In shooting clinics these days, players are instructed to hold an exaggerated follow-through a la Steph Curry or James Harden, instead of trying to follow their shot.

Times have changed.
The product has gotten progressively worse last 20 yrs, gyms are half full, high school attendance down too, high school level too many 3s are being attempted
 
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railbird

EOG Master
I loved betting Bo's teams.

They rarely no-showed.

If memory serves, Ryan's style was widely criticized by college basketball's intelligensia.
Bucky made more passes than dribbles, they never panicked, the last 5 seconds of shot clock they would make 3 or 4 passes, 35 seconds and they would make 20 passes
 

TEXED

EOG Veteran
JK....You made a good choice in deciding to spend your 90 days in CR this year instead of Nebraska. This Winter has been LONG and Snowy and Icy and COLD . The Nebraska Tourism Dept last year came up with a clever new slogan. "Nebraska---It's not for everyone." I think about that every day.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
A self-deprecating tourism slogan?

Honestly, it's not for everyone.

Not sure the campaign will work but why not try?

What have you got to lose?

Nobody vacations in Nebraska.

Hard to overcome that flat, boring landscape.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Bucky made more passes than dribbles, they never panicked, the last 5 seconds of shot clock they would make 3 or 4 passes, 35 seconds and they would make 20 passes


Never panicked.

Shot-clock violations are much better than live ball turnovers.

And while time-of-possession is a huge factor in football games (see Super Bowl LIII as the latest example), time-of-possession counts in college basketball too.

Quick shots are usually a negative.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
You're getting a great number John, BOL tonight, Illinois has been playing inspired ball of late, hopefully their solid play continues


And that's why they call it gambling.

Betting teenage hoopsters is risky business.
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
FOOD: The modest food choices here in Costa Rica have helped me push away from the table.

The beef here is low-quality so I sometimes crave a juicy steak or tasty hamburger.

Practically no sweets and very little salt.

No Las Vegas buffets either.

EXERCISE: Thirty minutes of barbell work in the morning and 30 minutes at night.

I hate lifting in the gym.

At least an hour, usually two hours, of basketball every day.

But I need to play with more pace.

Most times, I'm shooting in the playground by myself so that doesn't help my cardio.

I need to run more.

WEIGHT: I don't weigh myself but I've traded fat for muscle.

I now comfortably fit into my wardrobe.

Though with the weather here, I'm usually sporting a tank top and shorts.

Areas in which I need to improve: Stop all consumption of soda (easier said than done) and become more flexible through stretching.

I also want to find a pool for a daily swim.

How's your fitness level, Keith?

JK,
fitness is very good. Last time we saw one another, I was at 230 pounds, and got to a high of 245, when I decided to make drastic changes in my diet and lifestyle. The date was June 30, 2014 when I gave up drinking soda for good, and gave up eating a high carb diet. Typical diet prior in a day, four 20 oz regular cokes, 4 doughnuts in the morning, pizza for lunch, and fast food for dinner. Many times, would have 4 bagels in the day as well. I went from that prior to June 30, 2014 to no soda, no carbs after that date. 1 year later, I was at 195 pounds, and doing fast walking exercise every other day. My low point was 187 pounds, which made me look too skinny. These days, I'm back at about 200, which is about perfect for me. A days intake of food may include a high protein smoothie in the morning, with berries in it. Lunch may include chicken with some veggies. Dinner may include some other protein, such as steak, burgers, fish, etc., with veggies again. I never eat the buns at a burger place, or the french fries. If I get a pizza, I will eat the topping only, and not the dough part. Scrambled eggs have great protein as well. I still do my walking, but this time of year, because of work is tough. My walking pace over 4 miles is about 4.5 mph, which takes about 53 minutes to do. I will have a protein smoothie at work during the course of the day, which gives even more energy than soda did. I never eat sweets, junk food or fast food any more. Been almost 5 years since all of that. I went from a size 42" waist to about a 34. Some of the benefits, I can now bowl 12 games in a day without being winded, vs. maxing out with 3 because I was too tired. Energy to do my job is great, and the ladies say I look great now. The only thing I think I can improve on, that I do not do right now, is some weight training, and muscle toning. Good luck to you in your quest for a healthy life style and living, sounds like you are well on your way!!!!!
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
You're ahead of me, Keith.

Sounds like your playing weight is 200 pounds.

Good to hear the ladies give you a thumbs-up.

Always need high marks in that area.

No gutter balls, if you know what I mean, and I know you do.
 

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
Hard to overcome that flat, boring landscape.

Depends where you are in Nebraska.

The Nebraska panhandle has the Sandhills and northeast Nebraska has rolling hills. (Google Nebraska Sandhills to see pictures -- you'll be amazed.) Interstate 80, which runs along the Platte river through much of Nebraska, appears flat, but very gradually slopes downhill from west to east, because rivers (water) flows downhill.

Don't know the statistics for Nebraska, but will use Kansas' instead. Kansas City, KS/Kansas City, MO, border elevation about 1000', western Kansas/Colorado border over 3000' -- roughly analogous to Nebraska. Also, east central Kansas has the Flint Hills (can be read about in the Book "Blue Highways" -- not a reference to politics, but highway maps. At the time the book was written, blue colored highways on maps ran through that region). Book was written WAY before current political descriptions of blue and red states.

Finally, the flattest State is Florida. Highest point is 80 feet above sea level.
 
This Illinois team is going to be very good next year... IF everybody returns (Ayo is probably a 1st round pick if he enters the draft)

The freshman forward, Giorgi, with 2 high impact Centers joining the team next year.

Will be hard to find a better frontcourt in the country.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Depends where you are in Nebraska.

The Nebraska panhandle has the Sandhills and northeast Nebraska has rolling hills. (Google Nebraska Sandhills to see pictures -- you'll be amazed.) Interstate 80, which runs along the Platte river through much of Nebraska, appears flat, but very gradually slopes downhill from west to east, because rivers (water) flows downhill.

Don't know the statistics for Nebraska, but will use Kansas' instead. Kansas City, KS/Kansas City, MO, border elevation about 1000', western Kansas/Colorado border over 3000' -- roughly analogous to Nebraska. Also, east central Kansas has the Flint Hills (can be read about in the Book "Blue Highways" -- not a reference to politics, but highway maps. At the time the book was written, blue colored highways on maps ran through that region). Book was written WAY before current political descriptions of blue and red states.

Finally, the flattest State is Florida. Highest point is 80 feet above sea level.

Florida, the flattest state?

Learn something new every day.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
This Illinois team is going to be very good next year... IF everybody returns (Ayo is probably a 1st round pick if he enters the draft)

The freshman forward, Giorgi, with 2 high impact Centers joining the team next year.

Will be hard to find a better frontcourt in the country.

And now the question is: Will the 2019-2020 betting marketplace react?
 
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