My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#1
Never attempt to catch a falling knife.

It causes injuries at the dinner table and leads to losses at the sports book.

A recent discovery isolates a surefire way to identify college basketball teams in declining form when the NCAA tournament arrives every March.

The NCAA Division I men's basketball selection committee on February 9 unveiled an in-season look at their Top 16 teams for the Big Dance.

The early release listed Marquette as the last #3 seed with Wisconsin, Iowa State, Nevada and Louisville assigned the four #4 seeds.

Five weeks later, the above quintet was not among the tournament's Top 16 seeds on Selection Sunday.

Marquette fell two seed lines from #3 to #5, Wisconsin dropped one seed line to #5, Iowa State dropped two seed lines to #6 while both Nevada and Louisville were assigned #7 seeds.

How did the "Falling Five" perform during the opening round of the NCAA tournament?

The word miserable comes to mind.

How about 0-5 straight-up and 0-5 against the spread?

Not only did all five teams lose in the favorite's role, but the five fading teams lost by an average margin of more than 11 points per game.

Did I profit from the results?

Of course not.

I'm good at recognizing profitable angles after the fact, not so much before tipoff.

But I promise it's an angle I'll incorporate when the selection committee convenes next February in Indianapolis and next March in New York City.


PROS and SCHMOES.....Amateur gamblers focus on the 67 games in the NCAA tournament.

Serious gamblers study the NIT, CIT and CBI.

Go to the head of the class if you knew NIT games are experimenting with FIBA's 3-point line (6.75 meters, 6.60 meters on the baseline), the CIT this season invited an oddball number of 26 teams and the CBI boasts a unique Best-of-3 series between its finalists to determine a champion.


BUM STEER.....I was close to supporting Northridge +12.5 over Utah Valley last week in an opening-round game of the College Basketball Invitational.

I waited too long to make the bet and thus lost a point of value.

I then received a phone call from a trusted source who said Utah Valley's home court provides the Wolverines one of the biggest advantages in all of college basketball.

My source told me the UCCU Center with a capacity of 8.500 is an intimidating building for conference foes and should pose problems for a Northridge team with 20 losses not excited about playing a postseason game in a consolation tournament.

Because of my source's winning track record and outstanding list of sources, I bet Utah Valley -11.5.

Final score: Utah Valley 92 Northridge 84.

Utah Valley was not interested in playing defense and its fans were not interested in attending the game.

Imagine my disgust when I saw the total attendance listed in the box score: 375.

Some home-court advantage, I thought.


OVERMATCHED.....Sometimes the best man for the job is a woman.

Just not in the case of Debbie Antonelli.

Antonelli served as the color commentator for last Saturday's Murray State-Florida State game on TNT.

She allowed her promotion of the telecast to cloud her editorial judgment.

At halftime of a contest in which Florida State led 50-34 and dominated all phases of the game, Antonelli proclaimed, "Don't go anywhere. Murray State has a chance to rally against this Florida State squad. This game is not over by any means."

Antonelli's attempt to hold television viewers may have pleased CBS executives but her sales job betrayed viewers who seek expert opinions.

She failed to mention Florida State players were bigger, stronger and longer than their overmatched opponents.

The second half looked a lot like the first half with the Seminoles outscoring the Racers, 40-28, over the game's final 20 minutes.

One thing's for sure: Antonelli never would survive as a halftime bettor in Las Vegas.


THE PERFECT HOST.....Ernie Johnson is a funny guy despite his role as straight-man to Charles Barkley's silly but sometimes humorous commentary.

After Florida State's 28-point victory over Murray State, a team led by heavily-publicized star player Ja Morant, Johnson delivered the following line with tongue firmly planted in cheek: "It was a 'JA-dropping' performance by the Seminoles."

The witty play on words received a few groans from the studio panel but that did not deter Johnson from delivering another clever line.

Johnson said, "I'm almost ashamed but not quite."


FIELDS OF DREAMS.....My most entertaining dinner guest last week was sharp sports bettor Trace Fields who described his worldwide travels in colorful terms.

Fields, a native Oklahoman, discussed his many trips to Asia, Europe, Central America and South America.

He talked about his gambling coups in college football and college basketball and sprinkled in a few stories about successful escapades with the opposite sex.

The handsome 52-year-old said, "The women of South America are the most beautiful women in the world and they adore American men."

When asked how many languages he spoke, Fields responded without hesitation, "I can say BIG TITS in 31 languages."


MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play 609 Longwood +15 (-110) widely available.

DePaul is untrustworthy in this price range because the Blue Demons don't attend to the defensive end of the court.

The game will be played at McGrath-Phillips Arena, a small 3,000-seat gym employed by the women's volleyball team at DePaul.

Wintrust Arena, DePaul's home court, is unavailable as it prepares to host the Chicago region of the Division I women's basketball tournament this weekend.
 
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#6
Here are the Sweet 16 odds from one of the off shores:
Utah Valley at South Florida - CBI Tournament - QuarterfinalsMon 3/25 607 Utah Valley +1.5 -110 +115 o146½ -110 o72½ -110 u72½ -110 7:00PMet 608 South Florida -1.5-110 -135 u146½ -110 o74 -110 u74 -110
Longwood at DePaul - CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals
Mon 3/25 609 Longwood +15 -110 +950 o156 -110 o70½ -110 u70½ -110 8:00PM 610 DePaul -15 -110 -1450 u156 -110 o85½ -110 u85½ -110
Brown at Loyola Marymount - CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals
Mon 3/25 611 Brown +4½ -110 +170 o137½ -110 o66½ -110 u66½ -110 10:00PM 612 Loyola Marymount -4½ -110 -200 u137½ -110 o71 -110 u71 -110


- Brown at Loyola Marymount - CBI Tournament - Quarterfinals
Mon 3/25 611 Brown +4½ -110 +170 o137½ -110 o66½ -110 u66½ -110 10:00PM 612 Loyola Marymount -4½ -110 -200 u137½ -110 o71 -110 u71 -110
Purdue vs Tennessee - NCAA Tournament - South Regional Semifinals - Louisville, KY
Thu 3/28
651 Purdue +1 -110 -102 o146½ -110 o73 -110 u73 -110 12:00PMet
652 Tennessee -1 -110 -118 u146½ -110 o73½ -110 u73½ -110
Oregon vs Virginia - NCAA Tournament - South Regional Semifinals - Louisville, KY. Thu 3/28
653 Oregon +7½ -110 +292 o119 -110 o56 -110 u56 -110 12:00PM
654 Virginia -7½ -110 -350 u119 -110 o63 -110 u63 -110
Florida State vs Gonzaga - NCAA Tournament - West Regional Semifinals - Anaheim, CA
Thu 3/28
655 Florida State +6½ -110 +255 o147½ -110 o70 -110 u70 -110 12:00PM
656 Gonzaga -6½ -110 -310 u147½ -110 o77 -110 u77 -110
Texas Tech vs Michigan - NCAA Tournament - West Regional Semifinals - Honda Center - Anaheim, CA
Thu 3/28
657 Texas Tech +2 -110 +115 o126½ -110 o62½ -110 u62½ -110 12:00PM
658 Michigan -2 -110 -135 u126½ -110 o64 -110 u64 -110
LSU vs Michigan State - NCAA Tournament - East Regional Semifinals - Capital One Arena - Washington, DC
Fri 3/29
667 LSU +5½ -110 +220 o149½ -110 o72 -110 u72 -110 12:00PM
668 Michigan State -5½ -110 -260 u149½ -110 o77 -110 u77 -110
Virginia Tech vs Duke - NCAA Tournament - East Regional Semifinals - Capital One Arena - Washington, DC
Fri 3/29
669 Virginia Tech +7½ -110 +290 o144½ -110 o69 -110 u69 -110 12:00PM
670 Duke -7½ -110 -350 u144½ -110 o76 -110 u76 -110
Houston U vs Kentucky - NCAA Tournament - Midwest Regional Semifinals - Sprint Center - Kansas City, MO
Fri 3/29 671 Houston U +2½ -110 +120 o135½ -110 o66½ -110 u66½ -110 12:00PM
672 Kentucky -2½ -110 -140 u135½ -110 o69 -110 u69 -110
Auburn vs North Carolina - NCAA Tournament - Midwest Regional Semifinals - Sprint Center - Kansas City, MO
Fri 3/29 673 Auburn +5 -110 +185 o162 -110 o78½ -110 u78½ -110 12:00PM
674 North Carolina -5
 
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TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
#10
John any thoughts on Utah Valley vs USF tonight? I was going to play Utah Valley. I don't know much about UV other than they run lot of seniors and have played well on the road. USF is mostly terrible on offense, can't shoot. They will have to score off turnovers.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#11
John any thoughts on Utah Valley vs USF tonight? I was going to play Utah Valley. I don't know much about UV other than they run lot of seniors and have played well on the road. USF is mostly terrible on offense, can't shoot. They will have to score off turnovers.

I recently saw Utah Valley play twice in the WAC Tournament at Orleans Arena.

They beat UMKC by 7 in a quarterfinal round game and then tired late in the second half of a semifinal round loss to Grand Canyon.

UVU's best player is BYU transfer Jake Toolson who has a green light to shoot.

And shoot he will.

Utah Valley is a finesse team.

No opinion on the game, Toby.
 
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bomzee

EOG Dedicated
#12
JK thank you for the excellent review and the Preview .The peanut galleries of a sports book are entertaining and distracting -Thinking outside of the box and Being organized - taking good notes and ultimately implementing them as you do is not something the average punter does.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#13
JK thank you for the excellent review and the Preview .The peanut galleries of a sports book are entertaining and distracting -Thinking outside of the box and Being organized - taking good notes and ultimately implementing them as you do is not something the average punter does.

Thanks for the compliment, Bomzee.

I want to bet UCF and Iowa in the early rounds of the 2020 NCAA Tournament.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#14
Speaking of peanut galleries, perhaps JK will straighten out DSI by the ASB. Yes, the MLB ASB. Retro book now gone, and they no longer offer checks as payment. The Costa Rican joke continues.

John is also flirting with the record 68 consecutive days of no POD standings here at eog, although he has aways to go yet.

Those of you that follow that thread the last day standings were released was March 5th. The natives are once again getting restless after recently significantly improving on the reputation.
 
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