My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
We called the game "Strike Out" in the 1970's.

Two young ballplayers would use chalk or spray paint to draw a tall rectangular box on the brick wall of a nearby school facing an empty parking lot or large playground.

Only a bat and rubber ball were needed to replicate the pitcher-batter matchups seen at major league ballparks everywhere.

A pitch that landed inside the box, or on one of the lines, would be called a strike.

Hits were measured by the distance a batted ball traveled through the air.

Little did I know, some 40 years later, Major League Baseball would be reduced to a game of "Strike Out."

So much for the sport's fabulous nuances.

Say goodbye to the hit-and-run or run-and-hit, the safety squeeze or suicide squeeze, relay throws from the right fielder to the second baseman to the catcher, and the ability of a resourceful hitter to take two strikes and slap a hit to the opposite field.

The all-or-nothing nature of the pitcher-batter showdown these days is testing the patience and attention spans of casual observers and diehard followers alike.

Less action over a longer period of time -- games are averaging three hours and six minutes this season compared to two-and-a-half hour games in the 1970's -- makes for a boring product.

Attendance is down about 8% this season after experiencing a 4% decline last year.

But strikeouts in Major League Baseball have reached record highs for 11 consecutive years.

Last season, for the first time in MLB history, there were more strikeouts (41,207) than hits (41,020).

And this season, the trend is continuing.

After Sunday's action, games are averaging 16.7 hits per contest compared to 17.5 strikeouts.

Today's hitter seems to swing as ferociously at the two-strike pitch as he does the 3-0 pitch and rare is the day when a player chokes up on the bat or tempers his uppercut swing.

Ivy League quants insist a hitter's focus on launch angles and exit velocities is the right way to play the game and they may be right.

Sports bettors who gamble on the daily product must be aware of the changing nature of the game.

EOG contributor and baseball devotee EJD5277 recently pointed out, "It’s our job to adjust to the realities of the current environment, not the one that we would prefer."

Welcome to Home Run Derby.

Here are a few thoughts and some oddball ideas on the new style of play in Major League Baseball:

---Why spend $20 or $30 million on a pitching ace?

Instead, recruit 12-14 quality relief pitchers with swing-and-miss stuff to pitch an inning or two per game.

And while you're recruiting proven relievers, teach your relievers to play first base in the late innings of an important game so as to combat an opponent's lineup sequencing of righty-lefty-righty-lefty.

---Is anyone counting the number of times a big swinger loses his helmet after a big cut? Or goes down to one knee after swinging for the fence? Happens nightly, it seems.

---Is a successful check swing a good sign or a bad sign for pitchers?

---Why are players who hit a bases-loaded double allowed to celebrate childishly (playing air guitar, revving an imaginary motorcycle or imitating a Fortnite character) yet players who hit a solo home run are not allowed to flip their bat?

Someone needs to chronicle baseball's unwritten rules.

---No numbers to support the following speculation but after watching hundreds of MLB games this season, it seems players this season are taking more chances on the basepaths.

The strategy goes against the "book" on today's style of play but there are two possible reasons for the aggressive baserunning: 1) Replay reviews require the ball to beat the runner AND the tag to be applied successfully and 2) With fewer and fewer balls put into play, the game becomes more exciting through high-risk maneuvers on the basepaths.

---Defensive shifts work.

However, analysts should compare runs saved from exaggerated shifts against the times when a sharp one-hopper hit to the traditional shortstop position would have resulted in a tailormade double play but instead rolls into left field for a two-run single.

---And finally, my contribution to MLB defensive shifts.

The situation: Tie game, bottom eight, man on second with two outs.

Infielders typically tell one another to knockdown all ground balls and disallow a ball to sneak through the infield.

If that's the case, and it is, why not instruct your middle infielders to retreat 20-30 feet and your corner infielders to retreat 10-15 feet?

This unusual defensive alignment would force the offensive team to record two hits, not one, to score the go-ahead run.

Question: How many times have you witnessed a seeing-eye single or Texas Leaguer win a ballgame?

Answer: Too many.


MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play 912 Chicago White Sox (Nova/Bailey) -112 over the Kansas City Royals at BetDSI.

Feels like a cheap price to bet against the Royals, a team with a 7-17 road record and a 3-9 mark in one-run games.

Expecting the good Ivan Nova to show up this afternoon at Guaranteed Rate Field.

It's time for Nova to record a good start at home after three miserable performances before the home crowd.

He exits one of his best performances of the season, a win last Wednesday over the mighty Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.

The White Sox should appreciate the drop in class after playing the Twins (36-16) and Astros (35-19) over the past seven days.

Chicago shortstop Tim Anderson (sore wrist) is expected to return to the lineup after missing the last two games.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Ivy leauge quants are not right, thats why the bucks got their ass kicked. Wanted 2s at rim, but were so predictable
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Defensive shifts in baseball works....seen many balls hit up the middle for inning ending outs or double plays.....many left handed hitters being robbed with the 2nd baseman playing in short right field...
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Ivy leauge quants are not right, thats why the bucks got their ass kicked. Wanted 2s at rim, but were so predictable
Actually they are right and you’re wrong in baseball - only because players are trained to swing for the fences now. It’s too hard to win slapping 3-4 consecutive singles together and putting pressure on the defense for 2 runs when those four could score 4 runs. It’s leaving money on the table these days. The game suffers but it’s more efficient I guess.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
astros and twins are 1 & 2 in batting average and have no problem hitting the ball. The shift does bring batting averages down for sure , so draft or trade for a different hitter. The bluejays batting average is 55 points lower than the astros.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Actually they are right and you’re wrong in baseball - only because players are trained to swing for the fences now. It’s too hard to win slapping 3-4 consecutive singles together and putting pressure on the defense for 2 runs when those four could score 4 runs. It’s leaving money on the table these days. The game suffers but it’s more efficient I guess.
Thats a loser in oct, dodgers whiffed there way to 2 world series losses in a row. Despite having more talent
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Actually they are right and you’re wrong in baseball - only because players are trained to swing for the fences now. It’s too hard to win slapping 3-4 consecutive singles together and putting pressure on the defense for 2 runs when those four could score 4 runs. It’s leaving money on the table these days. The game suffers but it’s more efficient I guess.



the best HR team does not win the WS. It is more of a combination of quite a few things. Let's use the word balance. Pitching & hitting. Last year redsox were 9th in HR. A team could be in the middle in HR's and still could win the WS. Just looking at team batting HR is a factor but team batting avg with low strikeout is a huge plus.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Rotations have never been less worn out. The pitchers on winning teams are good, too good for hr hitters
 

blueline

EOG Master
Actually they are right and you’re wrong in baseball - only because players are trained to swing for the fences now. It’s too hard to win slapping 3-4 consecutive singles together and putting pressure on the defense for 2 runs when those four could score 4 runs. It’s leaving money on the table these days. The game suffers but it’s more efficient I guess.

Read an article saying that a couple of days ago. It was an article about how flame-throwers have changed the game. Teams dont go up to the plate expecting to get consecutive hits off those guys so they swing for the fences.....hr or strikeout...feast or famine....its all about the launch angle now
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Totals in the postseason are noticeably lower than the regular season.

Wonder if teams should employ one strategy for a 162-game season and another strategy for the Best-of-5 or Best-of-7 postseason?

They are noticeably different games.

Loved how Terry Francona utilized his bullpen, especially left-hander Andrew Miller, a few years ago in the postseason.
 
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Foresthill

EOG Addicted
Totals in the postseason are noticeably lower than the regular season.

One reason, among several, are the much colder temperatures in post-season compared to the bulk of the regular season, especially night games, resulting in denser air.

Denser air shortens the distance of fly balls because of the greater resistance between the baseball and the air mass its traveling through, all other factors held equal. Consequently, home runs that barely clear the wall on hot summer days in the regular season turn into long outs in the post season.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Good point, Foresthill.

No fourth or fifth starters either.

And very quick hooks for a pitcher in early trouble.
 
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