My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Vanderbilt (57-11) versus Michigan (49-20).

It's a Best-of-3 showdown at the College World Series between baseball teams assigned contrasting forecasts at the start of the season.

The championship series will take place over the next two nights, or three nights if necessary, at TD Ameritrade Park in downtown Omaha.

ESPN will televise.

After winning 30 of their last 33 games, the Vanderbilt Commodores are exactly where most observers expected them to be.

Michigan, on the other hand, qualified for a trip to Omaha from out of the (maize and) blue.

At the start of the season, the Wolverines were dismissed at odds of 200/1 (Caesars) to win the CWS title, installed at 90/1 (CGT) after they competed in the Big Ten tournament and listed at 15/1 (Westgate) when the determined underdogs joined seven other survivors from an original tournament field of 64.

Vanderbilt is a prohibitive favorite (-330) to defeat Michigan in the three-game series.

Tim Corbin's team features a perfect blend of power and pitching with a nation's best 97 home runs and a staff that has surrendered only eight runs over the last 45 postseason innings.

Vandy hails from the tradition-rich Southeastern Conference, the best in college baseball, and one whose conference tournament title is more difficult to win than arriving in Omaha to compete for the College World Series title.

Nine of the conference's 14 teams have earned a trip to Omaha more recently than they have captured the SEC Tournament.

Michigan hails from the Big Ten, a conference where a school's football and basketball success is monetized, and therefore, celebrated.

Baseball is an afterthought and clearly ranks as low-priority at 13 of the 14 Big Ten schools.

Strange but true, Wisconsin does not field a men's baseball team after it discontinued the sport after the 1991 season.

Cold weather obviously is a big challenge for teams in the northern portion of the country with many formal practices forced indoors and many elite players migrating south to play year-round.

Michigan is attempting to become the first Big Ten school to capture college baseball's top prize since Ohio State won the title in 1966.

The best player in Omaha this week will be Vanderbilt outfielder J.J. Bleday.

The 21-year-old junior from Panama City Beach, Florida was the fourth overall pick by the Miami Marlins in the Major League Baseball Draft held earlier this month.

Bleday bats and throws left-handed and wears #51.

Marlins CEO Derek Jeter envisions Bleday to hit in the heart of Miami's order in future seasons with the ability to hit .300 and record 30-plus home runs.

Bleday was named SEC Player of the Year, SEC Tournament MVP and finished as a runner-up to Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman for the Golden Spikes Award as the nation's top player.

The only Vanderbilt player to ever capture the Golden Spikes Award was David Price in 2007, a few years before Bryce Harper from Southern Nevada (2010) and Kris Bryant from the University of San Diego (2013) won the prestigious award.


GO BLUE.....Las Vegas-based sports bettor Dave Blakeman, a valued employee at William Hill, will be rooting for the Michigan Nine this week.

Blakeman secured a price of 90/1 on Michigan to win the title.

He explains, "I only bet $20 on the Wolverines but I watched them compete in the Big Ten tournament and I thought they were a feisty bunch."

Will Blakeman hedge with $1800 on the line?

"Hell no. For $20? Not a chance. It's about ego now. I want to cash my ticket for pride's sake."

Kudos to EOG contributors KANE and DELL DUDE for also recognizing Michigan's ascent to the championship series.

KANE, on the heels of betting the Toronto Raptors at 9/1 to win the NBA title, needs Michigan to upset Vandy at odds of 13/1.

DUDE was late to the party but still has Michigan at odds of 11/2 to win it all.


HANDICAPPING TIP......I no longer watch a lot of games in real time.

Instead, I watch replays of games with knowledge of the final score and more importantly, the box score in front of me.

This change in process allows me to watch a game with a deeper understanding of the action while viewing the contest for the first time.

With football and basketball games, I focus more on the final two minutes of the game, evaluating how teams finish games whether or not the natural outcome is in doubt.

After all, many pointspread outcomes are determined late in the fourth quarter.


MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play 903 Atlanta Braves (Teheran/Lester) +113 over the Chicago Cubs at CGT.

The Cubs avoided a third straight loss at the hands of the visiting New York Mets yesterday when Javy Baez saved the day with a three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth inning.

Javy Baez's blast, the 100th of his career, turned a 3-2 deficit into an eventual 5-3 win.

The Braves are on a roll and they've been winning with contributions from their entire 25-man roster.

Atlanta's recent won-loss records over the last 10 days, last 20 days and last 30 days: 7-3, 15-5 and 20-10.

Over the same period, the Cubs are 4-6, 10-10 and 13-17.

What's more, the Cubs are only 19-22 this season against teams with winning records.

Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran is better than his 5-5 record would indicate.

Before his poor effort last start, he posted some impressive numbers against quality competition, including not allowing a home run in eight consecutive starts from early May to mid-June.

Chicago veteran lefty Jon Lester, age 35, has surrendered seven home runs over his last three starts.

First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. CT.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I believe Blakeman only had access to CGT's mobile app at the time of his wager.

Sometimes work gets in the way of gambling opportunities.

At prices in that range, it's a difference of $200 on the payout.
 
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railbird

EOG Master
Michigan was +330 vs oregon state, plus 290 and 240 vs ucla. Watchout for tommy henry, he has a phenominal lefty change up, he is tom glavine
 

railbird

EOG Master
FAKE news that sec is the best confrence, just because espn wants sec to host sites for ratings thay doesnt make them the best. Pac 12 has 24 national championships, sec only 11
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
JK, I agree with your handicapping tip. Not watching in real time takes the emotion out of the game, the ups and downs, etc. I love the NFL short cuts on Direct TV on Monday and Tuesday, where they show an entire NFL game in 30 minutes. The only disadvantage to this is if you're betting in game.

HANDICAPPING TIP......I no longer watch a lot of games in real time.

Instead, I watch replays of games with knowledge of the final score and more importantly, the box score in front of me.

This change in process allows me to watch a game with a deeper understanding of the action while viewing the contest for the first time.

With football and basketball games, I focus more on the final two minutes of the game, evaluating how teams finish games whether or not the natural outcome is in doubt.

After all, many pointspread outcomes are determined late in the fourth quarter.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Great point about live betting, Keith.

I thought about that angle too.

I don't make an in-game wager unless I'm watching the game.

It's a dangerous bet to make at a betting outlet like William Hill where they once promoted you can make a wager with the ball in the air.

More specifically, you can request a wager with the ball in the air.

Whether the wager is accepted or not depends on what happens with the ball.

Hehe.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
FAKE news that sec is the best confrence, just because espn wants sec to host sites for ratings thay doesnt make them the best. Pac 12 has 24 national championships, sec only 11


I like to use professional drafts to gauge the amount of talent in every conference.

The SEC is far and away the top producer of talent in both the NFL and MLB Drafts.

Kentucky (52), North Carolina (51) and Duke (48) rank 1-2-3 in college basketball for producing the most first-round draft picks since the NBA instituted its draft in 1947.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Among the bonuses Bakich can receive: $20,000 for a Big Ten regular-season championship; $10,000 for a conference tournament tile and/or an NCAA Tournament appearance; $15,000 for a regional championship; $20,000 for a Super Regional championship; $25,000 for a College World Series appearance; and $30,000 for a College World Series title. Those bonuses are cumulative.

Source: The Detroit News
 

E$

EOG Dedicated
I love the idea of watching a game for the first time after knowing the result. I have always done this with Dolphins games to avoid breaking things but never thought of it from a gambling perspective.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I love the idea of watching a game for the first time after knowing the result. I have always done this with Dolphins games to avoid breaking things but never thought of it from a gambling perspective.

It really makes sense for the endgame in basketball.

How are coaches playing time and score?

How are teams using their fouls?

Are coaches/players aware of a 2-for-1 situation?

Additionally, a basketball box score doesn't list the score with 2:00 left or 1:00 left in the game.

But those would be interesting numbers to include.
 

Sol Diablo

House of Heat
FAKE news that sec is the best confrence, just because espn wants sec to host sites for ratings thay doesnt make them the best. Pac 12 has 24 national championships, sec only 11

I like to use professional drafts to gauge the amount of talent in every conference.

The SEC is far and away the top producer of talent in both the NFL and MLB Drafts.

Kentucky (52), North Carolina (51) and Duke (48) rank 1-2-3 in college basketball for producing the most first-round draft picks since the NBA instituted its draft in 1947.


To add to the conversation, since the year 2000, the SEC has six national titles while the Pac12 has five.

Slight edge to the SEC but the PAC12 has proven they continue to be one of the top conferences in college baseball.
 

Sol Diablo

House of Heat
Another interesting tidbit, the SEC did not win their first national title until 1990.

By that time, teams from the current Pac12 conference had already won a total of 23. That includes Arizona and ASU who were in the WAC during many of those title years, but now obviously belong to the current Pac12.
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
Those numbers are quite trival. An outside sport dependant on good weather and the top 3 conferences have favorable weather. Nothing outstanding about this.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Those numbers are quite trival. An outside sport dependant on good weather and the top 3 conferences have favorable weather. Nothing outstanding about this.


Simply trying to compare the MLB talent available in the SEC and Pac-12.

I think the professional drafts show where the most pro-ready players compete.
 

Sol Diablo

House of Heat
However you want to slice it or compare numbers, they are pretty comparable when putting the Pac12 against the SEC in recent years.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Ninety-six baseball players formerly from Southeastern Conference universities were on 2019 Major League Baseball Opening Day rosters.

A total of 80 former baseball student-athletes from SEC schools were on 25-man rosters, and an additional 16 were listed on 40-man rosters or disabled lists.

Cannot find similar 2019 numbers for Pac-12 teams but the Pac-12 only had 42 former players make the big leagues at the start of the 2015 season.
 

Sol Diablo

House of Heat
Ninety-six baseball players formerly from Southeastern Conference universities were on 2019 Major League Baseball Opening Day rosters.

A total of 80 former baseball student-athletes from SEC schools were on 25-man rosters, and an additional 16 were listed on 40-man rosters or disabled lists.

Cannot find similar 2019 numbers for Pac-12 teams but the Pac-12 only had 42 former players make the big leagues at the start of the 2015 season.

Not sure of the current numbers, but at one point last season, Arizona State had the most former college players on MLB rosters.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Two tidbits I learned in my research:

1) Pac-12 baseball teams do not compete in a conference tournament

2) UCSB's baseball field is not equipped with lights
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
To your concept, I do watch live looking for opportunity of scoring in the last 3 innings offered by Bookmaker. See the game play, know the starter pitch count, know the bullpen(s) and have a feel for the home team batting in the bottom of the 9th.
 

railbird

EOG Master
P12 had the most 1st round picks this yr, the oregon state catcher is better than most MLB catchers right now. He is Joe Mauer.
 
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