My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
"The age of 40 is not a death sentence."

Former heavyweight boxing champion George Foreman authored the quote in the early 1990's to prove age is not a barrier to people achieving their goals.

Eight-division world champion Manny Pacquiao confirmed Foreman's words this past Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

The 40-year-old Pacquiao was faster and fresher than opponent Keith Thurman, a talented boxer 10 years his junior.

Pacquiao (62-7-2) scored the only knockdown of the fight late in the first round with a left to the body and right to the head, a combination that floored the previously-undefeated Thurman (29-1).

Following a 22-month injury-induced layoff, Thurman now has been knocked down in each of his last two fights after never hitting the canvas over his first 28 fights.

Pacquiao won a split decision when judge Glenn Feldman curiously scored the fight, 114-113, in favor of Thurman.

Most ringside analysts, including clear-thinking judges Dave Moretti and Tim Cheatham, awarded the fight to Pacquiao.

Moretti and Cheatham landed on the same final score of 115-112 despite viewing the third and eighth rounds differently.

The betting action supported Pac-Man and doubted Thurman.

Major outlets like Westgate and MGM Mirage opened Thurman a -150 favorite, giving him a 60% chance to win the fight.

But the house took lopsided action on Pacquiao early in the betting cycle.

Some late money supported Thurman in the role of an underdog, yet Pac-Man still closed a -150 choice.

The betting move in the Thurman-Pacquiao fight would be the football equivalent of a team opening a 3-point favorite and closing a 3-point underdog.

It happens but it's extraordinarily rare.

EOG contributor BOSTON MASSACRE posed an insightful question regarding the pre-fight betting action.

"Who has better insight, the oddsmakers or the bettors?"

That's the $64,000 question in sports betting.

Losing sports bettors underestimate the intelligence of the oddsmaker and the power of collective wisdom.

Losing bookmakers underestimate the intelligence of the sports bettor and the influence of well-intentioned money.

If shrewd bookmakers sharpen their offerings through intelligence gained from long-term winners, then savvy sports bettors should study the moves of a respected bookmaker for potential clues.

In the case of last Saturday's welterweight title fight, the gamblers had the right idea.

At no time during live betting was Manny's in-progress price lower than his closing price.

Manny was -500 after dominating the first two rounds, -900 after four rounds and still -600 after Thurman rallied in the middle rounds.

In-game wagering or live betting is a fabulous way to grade the effectiveness of one's betting portfolio.

Sports bettors who record a high percentage of wire-to-wire wins should be emboldened by their handicapping process and gambling prowess.

Eye On Gaming contributor TRYTRYTRY strongly supported Pacquiao by labeling Thurman "terrible" before the bell rang.

After the action-packed fight, TRY3 collected his winnings but upgraded his opinion of Thurman, a fighter who tried hard and earned respect from most observers.

TRY's strong pre-fight convictions, combined with his ability to adapt to new information after the fight, are two traits necessary for a winning opinion.

TRYTRYTRY received a tuition-free lesson and more precisely, he learned while getting paid.


MEDIA DAYS.....Conferences like the ACC, Big Ten and SEC held press briefings last week called "Media Days" to preview the upcoming college football season.

Head coaches and key players spoke about the 2019-20 season with positive attitudes and an air of confidence.

Players are bigger, stronger and faster than the previous season and they're dedicated to making this season better than any season in years past.

Yadda, yadda, yadda.

Sharp sports bettors know how to read between the lines of this overly-optimistic oratory.

Here are three quick takeaways from SEC Media Days held over four days at two Alabama hotels:

1) For the first time since 2006, there were no first-year head coaches to introduce.

It doesn't mean, however, that all SEC coaches are on solid footing.

Auburn's Gus Malzahn is occupying the hottest seat among SEC coaches after a subpar 8-5 season, which included a 3-5 mark in conference play and a 52-21 loss to rival Alabama.

A high-profile ABC game against Oregon at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on the final day of August likely will set the tone -- good or bad -- for Auburn's season.

The Tigers are being held as a 2.5 or 3-point favorite over the Ducks, depending on the shop.

2) Five of the 14 SEC teams did not invite a quarterback as one of three player representatives at SEC Media Days.

The five teams without an established signal-caller were Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

Food for thought.

3) Alabama's Nick Saban cryptically cited the reason for his team's lopsided loss in last season's CFP Championship Game.

Clemson blasted Alabama, 44-16, as a five-point underdog to deny the Crimson Tide and their rabid fan base an 18th national title.

Saban hinted players and coaches on Alabama's sideline last season were "more worried about personal outcomes than team outcomes."

Not good.


MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play 915-916 Oakland A's-Houston Astros UNDER 8.5 runs (EVEN) at William Hill.

Homer Bailey v Gerrit Cole.

The newly-acquired Bailey looked good in his Oakland debut last week and now faces a tougher challenge tonight in Houston.

Bailey has allowed a total of only 18 runs over his last nine starts.

Houston hitters struck out 14 times in yesterday's 5-3 win over Texas, a final score that would work tonight.

Cole is making his 22nd start of the season.

He leads the big leagues in strikeouts with 194 while surrendering only 33 walks.

Cole has recorded 43 strikeouts over his last four outings.
 
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railbird

EOG Master
Clemson football players said Notre Dame was their toughest opposition last year, not Alabama.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Interesting note, Birdie.

Clemson (-10.5) beat Notre Dame, 30-3.

Clemson (+5) beat Alabama, 44-16.

No Lawrence, no problem for Clemson.

Dexter Lawrence, the #17 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, missed both College Football Playoff games when testing positive for a banned substance.

Lawrence stood 6-foot-4 1/2-inches and weighed 342 pounds at the NFL Combine.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Dabo Swinney's smartest move at Clemson: The hiring of defensive coordinator Brent Venables from Oklahoma in 2012.

Venables is the second-highest paid assistant coach in college football.

Dave Aranda makes $2.5 million per year as the defensive coordinator at LSU.
 
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